Outlook - Azzet - Business news, investments companies & executives

Sign inJoin Now

Outlook

Outlook
Money market jitters echo a new RBA 'Lowe Moment'
Correctly reading the tea leaves embedded with Reserve Bank (RBA) rhetoric can be tricky, and following the gaffe by former RBA governor, Phil Lowe - who misled borrowers to believe rates would remain low until 2024 – consumers are less likely to bet the rent on what the central bank nuances to the market. However, that hasn’t stopped the market from reading a lot into the recent statement by the RBA, which said “the recent data suggest the risks to inflation have tilted to the upside, but it will take a little longer to assess the persistence of inflationary pressures”. Based on the strength of this commentary, some market commentators were too quick to conclude that the next rate move by the RBA will be up and most probably during the second half of 2026.RBA report card not goodAt face value, it's easy to conclude that the RBA’s acumen at reining in inflation has earned it a big fat F for failure in recent years; after all, the central bank has lots of tools at its disposal to tweak the economy. But given that the RBA - with all the resources at its disposal - can still get it wrong, early nostrums around a rate hike late in 2026 appear to be menacingly stupid. It was only 45 days ago that the market was factoring in
Outlook
Bessent predicts US GDP at 3% amid holiday season
United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. has had a “very strong” holiday shopping season so far, predicting that the U.S. economy would end on a strong footing. In an interview with CBS News’ ‘Face the Nation’ Bessent said the economy is better than expected. “We’ve had 4% GDP growth in a couple of quarters,” he said. “We’re going to finish the year, despite the Schumer shutdown, with 3% real GDP growth.” In the first quarter of 2025, GDP decreased by 0.6% year-over-year, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, while the second quarter saw a 3.8% increase. Initial estimates from the BEA for the third quarter economic results are scheduled to be published on December 23. The Federal Reserve of Atlanta predicted that the third quarter annual GDP would grow 3.5%. This comes as the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey came in at 53.3, up 4.5% in November, but down 28% from the same time last year. Consumer spending accounts for around 70% of the U.S. GDP. The latest inflation report showed that consumer prices rose by 3% year-over-year in September, including a 3.1% increase in the cost of food at home. Recent polls show voters have been frustrated with President Do
Outlook
Fed is on track to stop losing money
The Federal Reserve has finally stopped losing money for the first time in three years, after unprecedented losses due to the pandemic. Data from the central bank has shown that since the start of November, the Fed has started to make enough money to slowly start converting an accounting mechanism used to cover its losses. The size of the Fed’s deferred assets has increased since 5 November, shrinking from US$243.8 billion to US$243.2 billion on 26 November. Fed watchers do not know how long it will take for the Fed to cover its deferred assets and again return cash to the Treasury, but they suspect that effort will be measured in years. Through tracking the financial performance of regional Fed banks, a former top Fed staffer who is now chief economist for lobbying group the Bank Policy Institute, Bill Nelson, said the Fed “appears to be on track for the combined profits of the 12 Reserve Banks to be over US$2 billion in the current quarter”. The Fed’s deferred asset tallies up losses that must be covered before the Fed can again return its profits to the Treasury, as it is required to do by law. The Fed funds its operations through the income it earns from its bond holdings and from services it provides to the
Outlook
OECD warns tariffs, AI threaten economic resilience
While artificial intelligence (AI) investment is helping to counter the impact of United States tariff hikes, the OECD cautions that renewed trade tensions and over-exuberant markets could quickly undermine global resilience. In its latest Economic Outlook, the global policy forum reports that the world economy grew by 3.2% in 2025 and is expected to ease to 2.9% in 2026 before rebounding slightly to 3.1% in 2027. While the forecast is unchanged from September, the OECD warns that any escalation in trade disputes could derail the outlook. The global policy forum also notes that excessive optimism surrounding AI could set in motion a market correction if the sector fails to meet investor expectations. While OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann described economic fallout from U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff increases as limited, he expects the effects to gather momentum as companies exhaust the inventories they built up ahead of the changes. The U.S. outlook has been revised upwards, with growth now expected to reach 2% in 2025, which is up on September’s 1.8% projection. However, a slowdown to 1.7% is forecast for 2026, with the OECD now expecting strong AI-related investment, government spending, and an
Outlook
Australians continue to spend more at Christmas time
As the festive season arrives, retailers are getting ready for their busiest season of the year, and consumers are getting ready to find the best deals. When are consumers shopping? While many have only just begun to put up decorations and get into the spirit, research from Afterpay shows that Christmas is coming early, with 67% planning to complete most of their Christmas shopping between September and November. Strategic shopping has also pushed this, with Pureprofile CEO Martin Filz telling Azzet that 55% of shoppers intend to shop on Black Friday or Cyber Monday, up from 45% in 2024 and it is most prevalent with younger shoppers. “This highlights how these November events have become a key anchor in the holiday sales cycle and a major driver of retail activity,” Filz says. “Twenty-five to 34-year-olds are the most likely to bring their Christmas shopping forward to take advantage of Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals.” According to ARA and Roy Morgan research, Australians are likely to spend a record A$6.8 billion over the Black Friday-Cyber Monday weekend, a 4% increase from 2024. The average spend is tipped to come in at A$804 per person, with shoppers remaining deliberate about their spending.Credit: Heidi F

Outlook
Is the global economy broken or just rerouting flows?
Headline metrics suggest the global economy is threading the needle on a miraculous soft landing as policymakers ruminate over whether interest rate levels will do their job in the current financial climate. But is that really the case? The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is tipping steady 3% growth through 2026 and that inflation is largely back in its cage, and central bankers from the Fed to the ECB are slashing rates accordingly.Credit: McKinseyBut crack open the latest Global Economics Intelligence report from McKinsey, and that "soft landing" looks less like a policy win and more like a statistical fugazi. Boil it down, and the report basically posits that our monolithic "global" economy is effectively cooked - replaced by a Balkanised, multi-speed thunderdome where the United States is lapping a stagnant Europe. Meanwhile, C-suite heavyweights are increasingly concerned over the one variable they can’t hedge - a volatile new era of trade warfare between the West and the rest. Another peek under the hood suggests the consulting class might be overstating the gloom; while the world is undoubtedly fragmenting, the "smart money" reckons the global machine isn't broken - it's simply rerouting.The great divergenceTh
Outlook
Treasury's Bessent projects no US recession in 2026
United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said he sees no risk of the U.S. entering a recession in 2026, arguing President Donald Trump’s tariffs and domestic policies would strengthen the economy. While the U.S.’ gross domestic product increased by 3% in the second quarter, National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett has said growth would likely halve to 1.5-2.0% in the fourth quarter after the country’s longest-ever government shutdown ended this month. “I am very, very optimistic on 2026. We have set the table for a very strong, noninflationary growth economy,” Bessent told NBC News’ Meet the Press. He said that Trump’s trade deals and “big beautiful bill” spending package, passed in June, would spur the economy as they entered into effect. Bessent said parts of the economy were pressured, however. “Clearly, housing has been struggling, and interest rate-sensitive sectors have been in a recession." Inflation has remained at an annual level of 3%, according to September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The release of October’s CPI has been cancelled following the government shutdown, and November’s CPI has been delayed to 18 December after the Federal Reserve’s next meeting. The shutdown caused
Outlook
Fog of data uncertainty ahead of Fed's crucial rate call
As the United States emerges from the longest government shutdown in modern history, the Federal Reserve faces a daunting new challenge: Steering monetary policy through a fog of missing data. With key economic indicators delayed or suspended, including October’s all-important consumer price index, the central bank finds itself navigating blind ahead of its next rate decision in mid-December. For Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues, the absence of timely inflation and employment figures complicates an already delicate balancing act. After beginning a cautious rate-cutting cycle in September, the Fed must now determine whether to continue easing or pause, even as conflicting signals from financial markets and global headwinds cloud the outlook.Data Blackout at a Critical JunctureOrdinarily, policymakers would be scrutinising a full suite of economic data, ranging from consumer prices to wage growth and retail sales, to assess inflation dynamics and household demand. But with the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Commerce Department shuttered throughout October, those numbers remain out of reach. The result is a fog of war settling over the central bank just weeks before its December Federal Open Market Committee
Outlook
Minutes: Fed remains split over path of rate cuts
Federal Reserve officials remained divided at their October policy meeting, with minutes released on Wednesday showing disagreement over whether weakening labour conditions or persistent inflation posed the bigger threat to the United States economic outlook. The Federal Open Market Committee ultimately approved a quarter-point cut at the meeting, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%-4%. Yet the path ahead looks increasingly uncertain. The minutes revealed that officials were split on the need for additional easing in December, a move markets had been widely expecting, with many stating that no further cuts would be required at least through 2025. “Several participants assessed that a further lowering of the target range for the federal funds rate could well be appropriate in December if the economy evolved about as they expected over the coming intermeeting period,” the minutes said. However, “many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year”. The divide echoed comments from Chair Jerome Powell at his post-meeting press conference, where he said a December cut was not a “foregone conclusion”.