Outlook - Azzet - Business news, investments companies & executives

Sign inJoin Now

Outlook

Outlook
IMF cuts 2026 outlook; war and AI reshape economy
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its 2026 global growth forecast, warning that the world economy faces continued risks from the Middle East conflict, trade fragmentation and a potential correction in artificial intelligence-driven market expectations. The IMF now expects the global economy to expand 3.0% in 2026, down from its April forecast of 3.1%, before growth rebounds to 3.4% in 2027. The forecast remains below the 3.5% average growth recorded in 2024 and 2025. The lender said the global economy had so far avoided a sharper slowdown, with strong demand for artificial intelligence and related technologies helping offset the economic impact of disruptions to energy supplies caused by the war in the Middle East. However, the IMF warned that inflation pressures were likely to remain elevated, raising its 2026 global headline inflation forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 4.7% from April. Inflation is expected to ease to 3.9% in 2027. Energy prices remain a key driver of the outlook, with the IMF noting that prices were around 25% higher than before the war began on 28 February and expected to remain elevated. The updated forecast assumes the Strait of Hormuz will begin reopening in mid-July, with s
Outlook
World Bank warns on slowing growth, AI divide
Global economic growth is set to slow to 2.5% this year, marking its weakest pace since the Covid-19 pandemic, as geopolitical tensions and rising inflation continue to weigh on the outlook, according to the World Bank Group. In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the Washington-based institution downgraded growth forecasts for two-thirds of countries, warning that higher borrowing costs and disruptions linked to conflict in the Middle East are threatening to drag on global activity. The World Bank estimates global growth at 2.7% in 2025, with a further slowdown expected this year. Inflation is projected to rise to 4% in 2026, up from 3.3% in 2025, as energy and commodity markets remain vulnerable to supply shocks. Average fertiliser prices are also forecast to climb sharply, with increases of up to 38% expected due to disruptions in supply chains linked to the Strait of Hormuz and broader energy market instability. The World Bank warned that developing economies, excluding major Asian growth engines such as India and China, risk a prolonged period of weak convergence with advanced economies. It described the 2020s as potentially a “lost decade” for much of the developing world if structural constraints
Outlook
Fed officials see inflation easing despite risks
Two senior Federal Reserve officials expressed cautious optimism this week that inflation will moderate in the coming years, although both indicated there was little urgency to adjust United States interest rates in the near term. Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said inflation remains the central bank's primary challenge despite some encouraging signs in recent data, while New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said he expects price pressures to gradually ease as several temporary factors fade. The remarks came after the Commerce Department reported that the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, rose 3.4% in May from a year earlier, the highest annual reading since October 2023. Monthly data showed goods prices rose 0.4% while services increased 0.5%, the strongest monthly gain in services since January. Higher energy costs, which climbed 6.5%, drove much of the increase in goods prices, while transportation services, a category sensitive to fuel prices, rose 0.8%. Speaking during a live CNBC interview from the trading floor of the Cboe, Goolsbee declined to speculate on the future path of interest rates, saying his focus r
Outlook
Counting down to the survey that profiles a nation
It may not stop the nation like the Melbourne Cup but it does give Australians pause for thought every five years. The Census of Population and Housing is this nation’s biggest logistical undertaking outside of wartime, according to Dr Liz Allen of the Australian National University’s Centre for Social Policy Research. Completing the Census may seem like an unavoidable chore for Australia’s 11 million households but members of one group can barely hide their excitement as it approaches on Tuesday, 11 August: demographers like Allen and Mark McCrindle. “I get pretty charged up about it,” McCrindle, the founder and principal of the Australian social research, demographics and trends consultancy McCrindle told the recent Morningstar Investment Conference 2026. “It's exciting every time there's new Census data coming out. Put it in the diary.”More than a headcountAustralia’s population came in at 25,422,788 people at the time of the last Census on August 2021, but it is more than a statistical headcount. McCrindle, Allen and their fellow population researchers see the results of the questionnaire as a national snapshot, while policymakers use it as a planning tool. Not far behind them in terms of interest are economi
Outlook
Fed officials signal policy divide as Warsh era begins
Recent speeches and policy remarks from current and former Federal Reserve officials have cast a spotlight on growing tensions over the direction of United States monetary policy, as inflation concerns persist and the central bank enters a new leadership era under Chair Kevin Warsh. Former Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that rising political pressure on the central bank could undermine public trust in its independence, describing the situation as a political “stress test” during remarks at the John F. Kennedy Library Foundation in Boston. Powell, whose tenure as chair ended on 15 May, pointed to efforts by the Trump administration to influence Fed personnel decisions and policy direction, including calls for his resignation and attempts to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook. “If any administration finds a way to remove Fed officials over policy differences, then ⁠future administrations will do so as well,” Powell said while accepting the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award. “The public would lose faith that the central bank will make decisions based only on what’s best for all Americans.” Powell also referenced a now-dropped Department of Justice inquiry into a US$2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s Wash

Outlook
K-shaped economy: NY Fed flags rising food insecurity
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has warned that lower- and middle-income households are facing mounting financial strain and a “remarkable increase in food insecurity” as the divide within the United States economy continues to widen. In a recent blog post, New York Fed researchers said the increasingly pronounced “K-shaped” economy has left many lower-income Americans struggling with rising living costs even as wealthier households continue to benefit from strong asset prices and economic growth. Drawing on data from the central bank’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, the researchers said prolonged inflation has disproportionately affected lower- and middle-income households because a larger share of their spending is directed toward essentials such as housing, food and utilities. As prices in those categories have surged since the pandemic, many households have been forced to reduce grocery spending and cut back on other necessities. “The greater financial strain due to the high cost of living, combined with the expiration of pandemic-era aid (such as expanded SNAP benefits), have led to renewed concerns about food insecurity among those at the bottom of the K-shape,” the researchers wrote. The report noted t
Outlook
IMF warns that EU must reform in face of joint debt
European Union countries will face large bills for defence, energy and pensions in the next 15 years, the International Monetary Fund told EU finance ministers on Saturday, suggesting a mix of reforms, consolidation and joint borrowing to manage them. "If left unchecked, public debt will be on an unsustainable path. Under unchanged policy, debt of the average European country would reach 130 percent of GDP by 2040 — roughly doubling from today," the IMF said in a paper ⁠used as a basis for the ministers' discussions at an informal meeting in Nicosia. The paper said that to prevent such a scenario, EU countries must improve incentives for citizens to move around the 27-nation bloc to find work and for companies to hire them. The EU should also integrate its energy markets, make it easier for citizens' savings to flow across the bloc into profitable investments and unify laws that now often differ from country to country. Pension reforms and a higher retirement age would also help, as would government guarantees for riskier investments in low-carbon and climate-resilient projects that would help attract private capital. Finally, governments should agree ‌that ⁠innovation, energy and defence are European public g
Outlook
Warsh sworn in as Fed chair amid inflation risks
Kevin Warsh has been sworn in as chair of the Federal Reserve at a pivotal moment for the United States economy, as policymakers grapple with rising inflation pressures linked to the conflict involving Iran and Israel and growing concerns over consumer confidence. Warsh signalled an intention to pursue major reforms at the central bank shortly after taking the oath of office. “I will lead a reform-oriented Federal Reserve, learning from past successes and mistakes, both escaping static frameworks and models and upholding clear standards of integrity and performance,” Warsh said. Warsh, who was selected by United States President Donald Trump in January when expectations pointed toward moderating inflation and stable economic growth, now assumes leadership of the central bank amid a much more challenging environment. The economic outlook has deteriorated as surging oil prices tied to the conflict in the Middle East have pushed petrol prices sharply higher, mortgage rates to their highest level in nine months, and overall inflation to its highest level in three years. Despite mounting price pressures, American consumers have continued spending, helping shield the economy from a broader downturn. However, affordabil
Outlook
Fed minutes reveal growing hawkish shift
Federal Reserve officials grew increasingly concerned last month that inflation pressures stemming from the Iran war could require additional interest rate increases, according to minutes from the central bank’s latest policy meeting. Policymakers ultimately voted to keep the federal funds rate unchanged within a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, though the minutes revealed a growing divide within the committee over the future direction of monetary policy. While some officials continued to support eventual rate cuts should inflation ease or labour market conditions weaken, a larger number indicated they were increasingly open to tighter policy if inflation remained elevated. The minutes stated: “A majority of participants highlighted, however, that some policy firming would likely become appropriate if inflation were to continue to run persistently above 2 percent. "To address this possibility, many participants indicated that they would have preferred removing the language from the postmeeting statement that suggested an easing bias regarding the likely direction of the Committee's future interest rate decisions. "Participants noted that monetary policy was not on a preset course and that future policy decisions would be mad