Wealth

Insights on wealth management, investments, and personal finance.

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When markets panic, retail investors pay the price
My wife and I once took a twilight cruise out of Waikiki during whale season and things were going great until the captain told everyone there were whales to be seen off the port side. The captain warned everyone not to rush to see the whales to avoid the 100-year-old sailing ship from capsizing. The trouble was 95% of those on board were Japanese with no command of English. The cruise did not end well. That incident reminds me of what’s happening with media coverage right now and the bipolar impact it has on investor behaviour - rushing in the direction of every latest news thread.Trump narrativeGiven the proclivity of the Trump administration for knowingly sewing lies into its messaging to the American and global public, it’s incredulous how wired Wall Street appears to be the latest nuance on the Iran War - drip-fed to the world specifically to drive an expected market outcome. At the best of times, most capital markets take their cue from whether futures traders believe markets will go up or down based on any number of factors, none the least being geopolitical and macrodynamics playing out globally, which become the substance of the next news feeds. Trump knows full well that what he nuances to the media today will i
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Smart money eyes China’s next expansion cycle
Financial markets may have gone to hell in a hand basket since the Iran war started, but that hasn’t stopped one institutional investor looking beyond the current mayhem to the future drivers likely to turbocharge China’s next growth phase. While China is currently experiencing an economic funk, underpinned by structural stagnation and weak domestic demand, a lot of store is being placed in the country’s latest Five-Year Plan (2026-2030). It’s hoped that China’s progressive shift from traditional sectors like real estate to high-tech innovation, green energy, and a more robust domestic consumer market can reverse the general slowing in GDP growth of 7%-plus experienced over the last decade.A foundation for future growthAccording to a Government Work Report, China targets economic growth of 4.5% to 5% this year. While these numbers aren’t going to shoot the lights out, the report expects the next five years to not only lay a solid foundation for achieving the goal of doubling China's 2020 per capita GDP by 2035 but also serve as a source of stability for future global economic growth. Rather than being couched as overly ambitious, analysts believe China’s range reflects a more pragmatic assessment of global uncertaintie
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Middle East war: Friend or foe for investors?
Regardless of whether you believe the Trump administration’s unprovoked attack on Iran was a lurch towards peace in the region, or a distraction from [US] voter preoccupation with the Epstein files, there are material impacts for investors everywhere. While President Trump has signalled that Operation Epic Fury – now on day five - could be over in four to five weeks, markets are already speculating on the implications of it being a much more protracted affair. The declared objective is to drastically degrade Iran’s military capabilities and potentially trigger a change of regime. Iran’s initial reaction has included wide-ranging attacks on other countries in the region, including not just U.S. military bases but also civilian targets and oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Qatar. Black swan falloutThat’s not great news for investors or the capital market, both of whom want to make investment decisions based on as much certainty as possible. In anyone’s language, the U.S war with Iran is what analysts call a black swan event; rare and unpredictable with widespread, or potentially catastrophic consequences. While they’re bad for investors in the short term, these blac
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Contrarian plays as M&A wave builds
With local CEOs and foreign investors now circling a growing cadre of unloved ASX stocks – trading at widening discounts to fair value – now might be the time to play contrarian investor and buy in the hope of future spoils. The mountain of unspent capital that private equity firms are currently sitting on globally, along with Australia’s relatively weak dollar and mouth-watering valuation gaps – some exceeding 40% - has set the stage for heightened M&A activity in 2026. According to global law firm Ashurst, underlying conditions – from abundant private capital to available debt funding and sustained foreign interest – are firmly in place for a strong 12 months of M&A activity ahead.Cashed-up private equityPrivate equity buyouts rose 32% in value to US$30.5 billion across 95 deals, renewing momentum after subdued activity following the 2022 peak. Following a solid year for M&A activity in 2025 – anchored by the pending $11.7 billion deal for Qube (ASX: QBE) from Macquarie Asset Management – when 40 binding public M&A deals valued above $50 million were announced, Neil Pathak, partner and co-head of M&A at Ashurst, expects a rapid acceleration in M&A activity early 2026. Other noteworthy deals included the $12.7 billi
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US tech rout widens door for ASX outperformance: Oliver
If the Australian share market were a Melbourne Cup starter, you wouldn’t - based on previous form - put an each-way bet on it to be a top-three finisher. Let’s not be coy, the ASX200 has struggled in recent years relative to its global peers. As of February 2026, the main board of the Australian bourse has risen around 35.21% since February 2021, while the U.S. S&P 500 surged 79.41%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 nearly doubled with a gain of 97.67% over the same period. Underpinning the underperformance of Australian equities is its "old world" sector composition, - overly exposed to banks and miners - extreme sensitivity to both the Chinese economy and rising domestic interest rates. Also adding to the ASX’s laggard moniker – relative to its peers - is the exodus of market-moving large-caps into the hands of private equity.Is the tide turning?Due to insufficient capital growth, compared to high-growth international sectors like U.S. technology, the ASX has delivered a total return of approximately 119% since 2008, while the S&P 500 has risen by 305% over the same period. However, after years of being the perennial loser in the global performance stakes, there’s renewed optimism that the tide is finally turning for Aussie e

Wealth

Guides

When markets panic, retail investors pay the price

Smart money eyes China’s next expansion cycle

Middle East war: Friend or foe for investors?

Contrarian plays as M&A wave builds

US tech rout widens door for ASX outperformance: Oliver

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