
Middle East war: Friend or foe for investors?

Regardless of whether you believe the Trump administration’s unprovoked attack on Iran was a lurch towards peace in the region, or a distraction from [US] voter preoccupation with the Epstein files, there are material impacts for investors everywhere. While President Trump has signalled that Operation Epic Fury – now on day five - could be over in four to five weeks, markets are already speculating on the implications of it being a much more protracted affair. The declared objective is to drastically degrade Iran’s military capabilities and potentially trigger a change of regime. Iran’s initial reaction has included wide-ranging attacks on other countries in the region, including not just U.S. military bases but also civilian targets and oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Qatar. Black swan falloutThat’s not great news for investors or the capital market, both of whom want to make investment decisions based on as much certainty as possible. In anyone’s language, the U.S war with Iran is what analysts call a black swan event; rare and unpredictable with widespread, or potentially catastrophic consequences. While they’re bad for investors in the short term, these blac



