Economy

Updates on the state of the economy, growth, inflation, and employment.

Economy
Trade pedal pressed to the precious metal; surplus lifts
An increase in gold exports helped boost Australia’s trade surplus in June, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The ABS said the balance on goods rose to A$5.365 billion (US$3.473 billion) in June from $1.604 billion in May as exports rose to $44.318 billion from $41.8 billion and imports fell to $38.952 billion from $40.196 billion. The improvement in exports was driven by a 36.7% increase in non-monetary gold exports to $5.768 billion and the fall in imports was driven by a 9.1% drop in capital goods imports to $9.366 billion. Iron ore and coal exports increased while liquified natural gas exports eased in June compared with May, the ABS said in the announcement. This followed a narrowing in the trade surplus in May as an increase in imports combined with a fall in exports, which was consistent with trend over the last three years. The balance of goods has fallen in seasonally adjusted and trend terms since mid 2022, mostly due to falling exports with imports remaining broadly steady.
Economy
Trump imposes extra 25% tariff on Indian imports
President Donald Trump announced that he is increasing India’s tariffs by 25%, due to continued imports of Russian oil. These new tariffs are set to take effect in 21 days and would see duties on some Indian exports rise to 50%, which is among the highest levied on any U.S. trading partner. “I find that the Government of India is currently directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil,” Trump said in an executive order. “Accordingly, and as consistent with applicable law, articles of India imported into the customs territory of the United States shall be subject to an additional ad valorem rate of duty of 25 percent,” the executive order reads. The new tariff did not mention China, which also imports Russian Oil. Analysts believe this could mark the most serious downturn in U.S.-India relations since Trump took office in January, as it would threaten to disrupt India’s access to their biggest export market, which totalled nearly US$87 billion in 2024. It’s also a shift from Trump’s warm ties with the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, following their meeting in February. India’s external affairs ministry called the decision “extremely unfortunate” pointing out that many other countries import Russi
Economy
US trade deficit hits 2yr low; tariffs weigh on services
The United States trade deficit narrowed significantly in June, hitting its lowest level in nearly two years, as imports of consumer goods fell sharply and the trade gap with China shrank to its smallest in more than two decades. According to the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, the overall trade gap declined by 16.0% in June to US$60.2 billion. This follows last week’s preliminary data showing the goods trade deficit had dropped 10.8% to a nine-month low. The total trade deficit, which includes services, was the narrowest since September 2023. Exports of goods and services dipped slightly to $277.3 billion in June from over $278 billion the previous month, while imports slumped to $337.5 billion from $350.3 billion. Imports of consumer goods and industrial supplies hit their lowest levels since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, even as exports of capital goods reached a new record high. This sharp decline in imports helped boost second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), which rose at a 3.0% annualised rate after a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter. In contrast, earlier import surges had dragged on first-quarter growth as consumers and businesses rushed to front-load purchases ahead of
Economy
Switzerland 'determined' to continue US tariff talks
Switzerland’s government has said it is “determined” to continue negotiations with the United States to lower its tariff on Swiss goods, as Switzerland faces the highest tariff rate in Western Europe. The U.S. has said 39% tariffs on Swiss imports will begin on 7 August, higher than the 31% it announced in April. The Swiss cabinet, known as the Federal Council, said it “is determined to pursue discussions with the United States beyond the current joint statement proposal and, if necessary, beyond the 7 August deadline”. “Through its contacts with the business community, the Federal Council has developed new approaches for its discussions with the United States and will continue negotiations with the aim of reaching a trade deal. Switzerland enters this new phase ready to present a more attractive offer, taking U.S. concerns into account and seeking to ease the current tariff situation.” Switzerland had ended its tariffs on industrial goods in January 2024, with more 99% of U.S. goods entering Switzerland tariff-free. It is not currently considering any countermeasures against the U.S., the Federal Council said. While Swiss negotiators had reportedly believed the country’s goods would be subjected to a 10% tariff, th
Economy
US to raise tariff on India due to Russian oil purchases
The United States will raise its tariff on imports from India, U.S. President Donald Trump has said, as India has continued to buy oil from Russia. The U.S. levy on Indian goods is currently 10%, and was already set to be raised to 25% from Friday. India has been the largest buyer of seaborne crude from Russia in recent months, importing around 1.75 million barrels of oil per day in the first half of 2025. “India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits. They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine,” wrote Trump on Truth Social. “India has been targeted by the United States and the European Union for importing oil from Russia after the commencement of the Ukraine conflict. In fact, India began importing from Russia because traditional supplies were diverted to Europe after the outbreak of the conflict,” according to a spokesperson from India’s Ministry of External Affairs. The U.S. has yet to announce the expected new tariff rate, though Trump wrote that it would be “substantially” raised. While Trump claimed on Friday that India planned to stop purchasing Russian oil follow

Economy
Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler resigns
Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler will be stepping down from her position earlier than expected, allowing United States President Donald Trump to nominate someone to the role at a time when he is pushing for lower interest rates. In her resignation letter to Trump, Kugler did not state a reason for her decision to leave and only noted that she will be returning to Georgetown University as a professor in the fall. “It has been an honour of a lifetime to serve on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,” Kugler wrote. “I am especially honoured to have served during a critical time in achieving our dual mandate of bringing down prices and keeping a strong and resilient labour market.” Kugler’s term was set to expire at the end of January 2026, but instead, she will be leaving effective as of 8 August. She was nominated by former President Joe Biden to the Board of Governors in 2023, filling the unexpired term of Lael Brainard, who left to serve as a Biden economic advisor. During her time on the board, she was a permanent voter on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. Her resignation leaves space for Trump to put his nominee on the board that shares his views for lower interest rates
Economy
OPEC+ unwinds tightening cycle by increasing oil output
Despite forecasts that supply will soon exceed demand, eight oil-producing countries that belong to the oil cartel known as the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+), have decided to capitalise on a short-term window to continue boosting output. Following a series of monthly increases that started in April, the Saudi Arabia-led OPEC+ told the market yesterday of its plans to boost oil production by 547,000 barrels a day beginning in September. It’s understood that production increases, which reverse a program of 2.2 million barrels a day in output cuts - made in 2023 to prop up the markets - is an attempt by Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries to please the U.S. president. Donald Trump, who wants lower gasoline prices for American drivers, recently wooed Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, and other leaders in the region as commercial and strategic partners. The U.S president has also refrained from criticising these Middle East countries over human rights issues. The bulk of production increases are going to Saudi Arabia and other nearby producers like the United Arab Emirates, which is set to gain a 300,000-barrel-a-day increase. Given that the announcement from OPEC+ w
Economy
US adds 73,000 jobs in July; May-June figures slashed
United States job growth remained sluggish in July, with just 73,000 positions added during the month, while figures for May and June were revised sharply lower, prompting renewed concern over the health of the labour market and increasing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that nonfarm payrolls rose by 73,000 last month, up from a downwardly revised 14,000 in June but still well below market forecasts of 110,000. The revisions were steep: June’s total was cut from 147,000 to 14,000, and May’s from 144,000 to just 19,000, together slashing 258,000 jobs from prior estimates. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, matching forecasts. Market reaction was swift, with stock futures falling and Treasury yields dropping as investors recalibrated expectations. The disappointing numbers have bolstered expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at its September policy meeting. According to CME Group FedWatch Tool, traders now see a 80.3% chance of a cut, up sharply from 40% a day earlier. Health care and social assistance were the main drivers of job creation, accounting for about 94% of July’s gains. Health care alone added 55,000 positions, while s
Economy
World Bank commits to supporting Pacific development
The World Bank has emphasised its commitment to supporting economic resilience and development in the Pacific region, following a visit from the bank’s officials. Its managing director of operations Anna Bjerde visited Fiji, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. The World Bank also agreed in July to strengthen its procurement requirements to mandate that at least 30% of labour on international civil works contracts is local. “The World Bank Group is proud to support the people of the Pacific with solutions that address development challenges in the region, with jobs at the centre — giving young people the chance to shape their own future,” said Bjerde. Bjerde attended the Pacific Islands Forum Economic Ministers Meeting in Fiji, where the World Bank said she stressed the importance of smaller Pacific island nations’ connections to international financial institutions. The World Bank’s Correspondent Banking Relationships Project, which launched last year, allows eight Pacific nations to offer services in foreign currencies across borders. “How can Pacific countries maintain their economic links? We recommend removing barriers to trade and investment, especially in services, since many of your countries have large, tradable s