Economy

Updates on the state of the economy, growth, inflation, and employment.

Economy
OpenAI bares claws with Canadian media over AI path
Canada's artificial intelligence minister Evan Solomon is keeping a close watch on pending court action between Canadian news publishers and United States AI organisation OpenAI to determine how the country will plot its future regulatory approach to artificial intelligence. In a few weeks the Ontario Superior Court is set to hear a jurisdictional challenge from a coalition of Canadian news publishers – including The Canadian Press, Torstar, the Globe and Mail, Postmedia and CBC/Radio-Canada - that argue OpenAI is breaching copyright by scraping large amounts of content from Canadian media. Canada has no current plans for a standalone copyright bill. However, how Solomon plans to address copyright within Canada's broader AI regulatory approach will be influenced by the results of this court case and similar ones taking place south of the border. The coalition of Canadian news publishers is also arguing that AI is profiting from the use of that content without permission or compensatio. Within their court filing, the coalition claimed that OpenAI had "engaged in ongoing, deliberate and unauthorised misappropriation of [their] valuable news media works." "Rather than seek to obtain the information legally, OpenAI h
Economy
The Trump Tariff Timeline: August deadline now in focus
Tariff headlines have dominated market sentiment throughout 2025, with the President of the United States sparking a huge surge in volatility after the 2 April "Liberation Day" tariffs announcement that sent shockwaves through global financial markets and triggered a scramble for bilateral trade deals. President Donald Trump's sweeping reciprocal tariff policy imposed a 10% baseline tariff on imports from nearly all countries, with additional country-specific duties ranging from 11% to 50% based on bilateral trade deficits. The immediate market reaction was severe, prompting the administration to implement a 90-day pause on most country-specific tariffs just one week later on 9 April, reducing rates back to the 10% baseline while negotiations proceeded.Confusion Reigns as Deadline ExtendedAs the original 9 July deadline approached, confusion emerged over the timing of tariff implementation. President Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced that tariffs would be delayed until 1 August, providing trading partners with an additional three-week reprieve. The president also acknowledged the complexity of negotiations when he told reporters, “We have more than 170 countries, and how many deals can you make? They'r
Economy
Rebound: US retail sales lift 0.6%, supporting Fed hold
United States retail sales climbed more than expected in June, signalling a modest uptick in economic activity and giving the Federal Reserve further reason to delay any interest rate cuts as it assesses the inflationary impact of recent tariffs. Data from the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau showed that retail sales rose 0.6% last month following an unrevised 0.9% decline in May. The increase beat market forecasts for a 0.1% gain and represented a 3.9% rise from the same period a year earlier. The rebound came after two consecutive monthly declines, and while some of the increase was likely due to price effects from tariffs rather than underlying demand, it still suggested consumer resilience. Auto dealership receipts rose 1.2% in June after slumping 3.8% in May, although underlying data from car manufacturers pointed to a drop in units sold, implying higher prices drove the gains. Sales at building material and garden supply stores increased 0.9%, while clothing retailers and online merchants posted gains of 0.9% and 0.4% respectively. Spending at restaurants and bars - viewed as a key indicator of household financial health - rose 0.6%. Meanwhile, receipts fell modestly at electronics and appliance store
Economy
Carney cracks down further on steel imports amid tariffs
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has promised to crack down further on the amount of cheap foreign steel entering the country by the end of the month, as the domestic industry continues to suffer from United States President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The announcement was welcomed by the industry, which had already seen layoffs and lower production levels in the weeks since the U.S. implemented steep import taxes. Trump's tariffs saw an initial 25% levy on Canadian steel in March, which later doubled to 50% in June. Carney has indicated that the tariffs may remain in place despite a bilateral agreement. Carney said the quota changes "will ensure Canadian steel producers have a bigger share of the Canadian market." Under the new quota, any steel products from non-free trade agreement partners, like China and Turkey, will see their tariff rate quota tightened to half of 2024 volumes. Any imports exceeding quota will incur a 50% tariff. Carney also added that large projects, like the push to build more housing and strengthen the defence sector, will use Canadian steel. Carney noted that currently accounts for around two-thirds of Canada’s steel consumption, while 90% of Canadian steel exports go to the U.S. at a
Economy
National unemployment level rises to 4.3% in June: ABS
Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in June, up from 4.1% in May, according to data released Thursday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), strengthening expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The figures come after the RBA held interest rates steady last week, surprising markets. As of 16 July, the ASX’s RBA Rate Tracker is pricing in a 91% expectation of an interest rate decrease to 3.60% at the next Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board meeting. Sean Crick, ABS head of labour statistics, said: “This month we saw the unemployment rate rise 0.2 percentage points, driven by a 34,000 increase in the number of unemployed people.” Employment increased by just 2,000 people in June, following a fall of 1,000 in May and coming in well below expectations of 20,000. Compared to June 2024, total employment was up 2.0%. The modest gain was driven by a 40,000 rise in part-time jobs, which was offset by a 38,000 decline in full-time employment. The employment-to-population ratio held steady at 64.2%, while the participation rate edged up to 67.1%. Total hours worked fell 0.9% in June, following a 1.4% increase in May. “This month we saw a decrease in full-time hours worked, down 1.3

Economy
France weighs cutting public holidays to lower deficit
France’s Prime Minister François Bayrou has proposed cutting two of the country’s national holidays to lower its deficit. Under Bayrou’s budget proposal, Easter Monday and 8 May, which marked the end of World War II in Europe, could be removed as public holidays. The plan includes EU€43.8 billion in budget cuts, including a freeze on public spending. “Every second, France's debt increases by EU€5,000,” said Bayrou. “France has become the country in the world that spends the most public money.” “The entire nation must work more — to produce, to increase overall national activity throughout the year, and to improve France's situation," Bayrou said. "That's why I propose the removal of two public holidays.” France’s budget deficit reached 5.8% of its GDP in 2024. The budget proposal aims to lower the deficit to 4.6% in 2026, and eventually to 2.8% in 2029. It would freeze public spending in 2026 at 2025’s levels, except defence spending. The plan would also cut some government agencies and decline to replace one third of retiring civil servants, in a bid to eliminate 4,000 to 4,5000 public jobs. According to a BFMTV poll this week, 75% of French respondents do not support abolishing two public holidays, with 24% in
Economy
Step-change: RBA signals bold shift to digital currency
While the prospect of Australia becoming a cash-free society took a leap forward following recent plans by the Reserve Bank (RBA) to trial a digital currency, the central bank has reassured consumers that – for now at least – it will only be tradeable between banks – concentrating on wholesale uses only. However, given that Australia is already 98% cashless, the future of banknotes and coins - aka legal tender – could potentially have a limited shelf-life. Trouble is while there’s a lot of talk about the upside a digital currency might bring, there’s precious little thought being given to how a cashless society would work in practice. Best estimates put the value of Australia’s ‘black economy’ at around $50 billion or around 3% of the country’s GDP. It’s called the ‘black economy’ because it represents undeclared income - no matter how small – between individuals and businesses alike. The permutations of a cashless society would arguably change the fabric of Australian society overnight.Suddenly everything could be on-radarFor example, you would kiss goodbye to door-to-door Girl Guide cookies at $2 a pop, no $10 for a Lion’s Club Christmas cake, no hoarding $50 or $100 notes under the mattress, no $50 to your neighb
Economy
US adds 19% tariff on Indonesia under new trade deal
The United States will impose a 19% tariff on Indonesian imports under a new trade agreement with the country, U.S. President Donald Trump has said. Indonesia would also buy US$15 billion in energy and $4.5 billion in agricultural products from the U.S. under the deal, Trump said, as well as 50 Boeing aircraft. “This morning I finalized an important Deal with the Republic of Indonesia after speaking with their Highly Respected President Prabowo Subianto,” wrote Trump on Truth Social. Indonesian officials have yet to make an announcement. “This landmark Deal opens up Indonesia’s ENTIRE MARKET to the United States for the first time in History.” Indonesia will not impose tariffs on U.S. goods under this agreement, per Trump. Trump had sent a letter to Prabowo earlier in July threatening a tariff of 32% on Indonesian imports if Indonesia did not agree to a deal. Letters were also sent to many other trading partners, such as Canada, Mexico, and Japan, saying the U.S. would set blanket tariff rates of 20-50% from 1 August if these countries did not cooperate. U.S. trade with Indonesia reached around US$38.3 billion last year. U.S. exports to Indonesia increased by 3.7% to $10.2 billion, while imports from Indonesia ro
Economy
US CPI at 2.7%; Trump renews Fed rate cut demands
United States inflation edged higher in June, with consumer prices rising in line with expectations but prompting renewed political pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. President Donald Trump cited the latest inflation data as evidence that the central bank should act aggressively to ease monetary policy. The consumer price index (CPI), a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.3% over the month, lifting the annual inflation rate to 2.7%, according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS). The figure matched market expectations and marked the highest annual rate since February, remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.2% over the month. Year-on-year, it came in at 2.9%, also in line with expectations. However, the monthly increase was slightly below the anticipated 0.3% gain, suggesting modest underlying inflationary pressure. Prior to June, inflation had been steadily moderating. The headline CPI stood at 3% annually in January, and had been declining each month, despite persistent concerns that Trump’s escalating trade tariffs would stoke consumer prices. June’s data offered a more nuanced picture. While some ta