Economy

Updates on the state of the economy, growth, inflation, and employment.

Inflation

Inflation
US inflation cools in Nov; data gaps cloud outlook
United States consumer inflation slowed more than expected in the year to November, with the data distorted by gaps caused by a prolonged federal government shutdown, complicating the outlook for policymakers. Fresh data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed the consumer price index (CPI) rising 2.7% on a year-on-year basis in November, below market expectations for a 3.1% increase. However, no month-to-month inflation rates were published, marking an unprecedented disruption to one of the most closely watched U.S. economic indicators. The BLS said the moderation in inflation was partly due to the 43-day government shutdown, which delayed price data collection until the second half of November, when retailers were already rolling out holiday season discounts. “Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7% before seasonal adjustment. BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations.,” the agency said. Despite the easing in headline inflation, households continued to face affordability challenges as the prices of essential goods and services climbed sharply. Beef prices surged 15.8% from a year earlier, the largest increase since June 2020, while ground beef
Inflation
UK inflation falls amid lower food prices
Just days before the Bank of England gathers for its last decision of the year, inflation has done something few expected quite so soon: it flinched. The UK’s annual inflation rate slid to 3.2% in November, a sharper drop than forecast and low enough to put a festive bow on the case for an interest rate cut. Economists had pencilled in a gentler easing, but the Office for National Statistics delivered a bigger surprise. Prices are still rising, just not with the same stubborn gusto seen through much of the year. Even core inflation, which strips out the more volatile bits of the shopping basket, cooled to the same 3.2% pace, suggesting the slowdown isn’t just a one-off quirk. The unlikely heroes of this story are the supermarket aisles. Food prices, which normally creep up as Christmas approaches, went the other way. Cakes, biscuits and breakfast cereals were cheaper than a year ago, helped along by heavy discounting and early festive deals. Tobacco prices also stopped climbing after a big jump last year, while women’s clothing was marked down amid Black Friday promotions. Inflation, it turns out, is not immune to a good sale. Markets wasted no time joining the dots, and traders quickly priced in a
Inflation
Eurozone inflation rises to 2.2%, above ECB target
Eurozone inflation rose unexpectedly to 2.2% in November from the month prior, according to flash data from Eurostat. The latest data shows that inflation in the Eurozone is just above the European Central Bank’s target of 2%, and came in higher than market expectations of 2.1%. Underlying figures excluding volatile food and fuel prices held steady at 2.4% on continued quick price growth in services, but muted figures for durable goods. Services are expected to have the highest annual rate in November at 3.5% compared to 3.4% in October, according to Eurostat. The ECB held its key deposit facility rate at 2% for the third consecutive time in late October, having last cut rates in June. The Eurozone hitting the 2% inflation target was part of a rate-cutting cycle that brought rates down from last year’s record high of 4%. Natural gas prices are currently 40% lower than a year ago, and crude oil has decreased by over 10%, setting the scene for more energy deflation. Energy prices were also down 0.5% in November from a year earlier, and inflation in non-energy industrial goods was 0.6%. Following the Ocotbe trump, ECB President Christine Lagarde told CNBC that from a monetary standpoint, the economy is in a go
Inflation
Runaway inflation threatens RBA’s easing path
Given all the levers the Reserve Bank (RBA) has at its disposal to manipulate the economy, cynics could be forgiven for concluding that its ability to rein in inflation ‘blows big ones’. Early last week, we learned that headline inflation rose by 3.8% in October, up from 3.6% in the previous month. The trimmed mean - often a better indication of the underlying trend – also rose from 3.2% year-on-year in September to 3.3% year-on-year in October. Housing inflation was the largest contributor to headline inflation, accounting for 1.2 percentage points of the 3.8% number.Housing inflationRising inflation numbers took analysts by surprise with the dropping off of previous subsidies, which dampened prices, resulting in electricity alone - a major contributor to housing inflation - accounting for 37.1% in the 12 months to October. Based on the ABS’s long-awaited first “full” monthly consumer price index (CPI) – a major milestone for Australia - which provides a more timely and accurate gauge of the short-term challenges confronting the 87 components in the CPI basket, the RBA appears unlikely to lower interest rates soon. Having concluded that the recent spike in inflation data is largely down to temporary factors, the
Inflation
ABS: Australian inflation rises to 3.8%
Australia’s inflation rate rose 3.8% in the 12 months to October 2025 after flatlining last month, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). This was higher than the 3.6% increase in the consumer price index (CPI) expected by financial markets, which was based on a 0.2% fall in October, and the 3.6% lift in the year ended September. ABS Head of Prices Statistics Michelle Marquardt said in a media release that the release marked the transition from the quarterly CPI to the complete monthly CPI as Australia’s primary measure of headline inflation. The largest contributor was housing, which rose 5.9%, followed by food and non-alcoholic beverages and recreation and culture (both 3.2%). Trimmed mean inflation, which measures underlying inflation, was 3.3% in the year to October 2025, up from 3.2% and higher than the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred 2-3% band over the medium term. Goods inflation was 3.8%, up from 3.7%, mainly due to a 37.1% hike in electricity prices as rebates ran out, while services inflation was 3.9% (3.5%) and housing inflation was 5.9% (5.7%). Excluding the impact of the Commonwealth and State Government electricity rebates over the last year, electricity prices rose 5%. Fru

Economy

Inflation

US inflation cools in Nov; data gaps cloud outlook

UK inflation falls amid lower food prices

Eurozone inflation rises to 2.2%, above ECB target

Runaway inflation threatens RBA’s easing path

ABS: Australian inflation rises to 3.8%

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