Economy

Updates on the state of the economy, growth, inflation, and employment.

Outlook

Outlook
Economic data may not be released due to US shutdown
The White House said Wednesday (Thursday AEDT) that key economic data for October may not be released because of the United States government shutdown. While the shutdown is coming to an end, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that it could have long-lasting effects on the government’s data collection. “The Democrats may have permanently damaged the Federal Statistical system with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released,” Leavitt said. “All of that economic data released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policymakers at the Fed, flying blind at a critical period.” This comes as the Bureau of Labor Statistics was largely idle during the 40-plus-day shutdown, apart from temporarily recalling some staff to ensure the September consumer Index was released in time to set the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for next year. As a result, the agency was unable to collect price data and employment information for its closely watched releases. Economists fear that doing so retroactively would lead to flawed data due to so-called recall bias and the difficulty people have recalling past events. While the job numbers for September are yet to be released, the data w
Outlook
Bostic to retire from Atlanta Fed; Trump eyes influence
Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic announced on Wednesday that he will retire at the end of his current term on 28 February, 2026, an unexpected move that comes as President Donald Trump pushes to assert more influence over the United States central bank. Bostic, the first Black and openly gay individual to lead one of the Fed’s 12 regional banks, has been a prominent voice on issues of economic equity and social inclusion. His departure adds to the shifting landscape within the Federal Reserve as Trump seeks to remake the institution’s leadership, including through the attempted dismissal of Governor Lisa Cook and the upcoming decision over a successor to Chair Jerome Powell when his term ends next spring. While Trump does not directly appoint regional Fed bank presidents, such appointments must be approved by the central bank’s Board of Governors - a body he is attempting to reshape. The President has been sharply critical of the Powell-led Fed, accusing it of being too slow to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy. Bostic’s planned exit marks the second departure this year of a hawkish policymaker, narrowing the group of voices urging restraint on further rate cuts. The Fed has reduced i
Outlook
US Fed governor favours half-point rate cut in December
With inflation cooling faster than expected and the jobs market showing clear signs of strain, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran has made it clear he’s ready to push for a third consecutive interest-rate when policymakers meet in December. Speaking to CNBC on Monday, Miran argued that the economic data—limited though it is due to the ongoing government shutdown—still supports a half-point reduction in interest rates next month. But due to better-than-expected inflation data and signs of continued weakness in the job market, Miran believes the Fed should be moving at an even more rapid pace than its traditional quarter percentage point reductions. At the previous two Federal Open Market Committee meetings, Miran argued for a 50 basis point, or half percentage point, reductions. Having consistently pressed for a quicker pace of easing, Miran reiterated his stance that the Fed needs to act decisively to stave off a potential economic softening ahead. “Nothing’s guaranteed,” he noted, “and new data could always shift my outlook. But based on what we know, a half-point cut remains the right call—if not that, then at least a quarter.” Despite his calls for bolder moves, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ha
Outlook
Could the IMF's global growth warning turn into reality?
The International Monetary Fund reckons global growth will slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. What's driving that deceleration matters as much as the numbers, especially when you consider the risks that could make it worse - and several are now materialising. The IMF's mid-October World Economic Outlook report stated "the rules of the global economy are in flux", with uncertainty about stability remaining acute despite tariff deals that have tempered some extremes since the U.S. introduced higher levies back in February. The report's outlook has advanced economies forecast to grow just 1.5% in 2025-26, with the U.S. cooling to 2%, while emerging markets are tipped to grow just above 4%. World trade volume growth is expected to hit 2.9% in 2025-26 - well off 2024's 3.5% clip.What drove the flux in OctoberJust days after the IMF's mid-October World Economic Outlook warned about China's rare earth export controls, Trump and Xi struck a deal that suspends those controls for a year. That's one threat temporarily off the table, but AI stocks are repricing, labour force shocks are accelerating, and fiscal vulnerabilities are worsening exactly as the IMF warned. Primarily, it was President Trump's swee
Outlook
No Cup Day cut; RBA to hold fire amid rising inflation
The Melbourne Cup may be the horse race that stops a nation, but tomorrow’s glamour event on Australia's racing calendar is unlikely to coincide with a much anticipated Reserve Bank (RBA) interest rate cut following revelations that the inflation genie has not been adequately corked. What’s likely to have taken a rate cut well out of contention is the revelation that inflation for the September quarter was up 1.3%, taking annual inflation to 3.2%. According to the ABS, this is the largest rise since March 2023, with electricity the greatest contributor at 9%. While food and non-alcoholic beverages annual inflation was 3.1% for the September quarter, other rises include housing at 2.5%, recreation and culture at 1.9% and transport at 1.2%.Trimmed mean and CPI upWhat’s more meaningful for the RBA board is the trimmed mean – a measure of underlying inflation - which was also up by 3%, from 2.7% for the June quarter. This is the first time the trimmed mean annual inflation has increased since December 2022. What will also play on the minds of the RBA monetary policy board when it meets tomorrow will be the September 2025 monthly CPI indicator, which rose 3.5% in the 12 months to September, up from 3% in the 12 months

Economy

Outlook

Economic data may not be released due to US shutdown

Bostic to retire from Atlanta Fed; Trump eyes influence

US Fed governor favours half-point rate cut in December

Could the IMF's global growth warning turn into reality?

No Cup Day cut; RBA to hold fire amid rising inflation

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