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Commodities
Gold challenges US$4,400 level; Fed hike bets fade
Gold held its recent recovery from around US$4,300 during Asian trading on Monday, hovering near the key US$4,400 level as a weaker United States dollar and fading expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike offset renewed Middle East tensions. By 3:35 pm AEST (5:35 am GMT), spot gold was trading 0.5% higher at US$4,397.75 an ounce. Gold has benefited from renewed weakness in the U.S. dollar as markets have continued to reduce expectations of a Fed rate hike in September following softer U.S. inflation and retail spending data, as well as a decline in consumer sentiment. ANZ analysts commented in a note to clients: "Recent data suggest hawkish market pricing may have peaked, while breakeven inflation expectations remain anchored near 2%. "Softer hiring trends, evidence that the labour market is a disinflationary force and cooling inflation have helped gold find support near USD4,000/oz. "The joint intervention by the U.S. and Japan to support the JPY has raised questions about the reliability of traditional haven currencies. "This has again put the spotlight on gold as a reserve asset and hedge against currency devaluation." The University of Michigan's (UoM) Surveys of Consumers reported on Friday th
Commodities
Oil mixed as US-Iran talks stall, Hormuz traffic slows
Oil prices traded mixed during Monday's Asian session as investors monitored fading hopes of a breakthrough in United States-Iran peace talks and a sharp slowdown in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. By 2:40 pm AEST (4:40 am GMT), Brent crude futures were up 22 cents, or 0.3%, at US$88.74 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures eased 9 cents, or 0.1%, to US$82.31 a barrel. Brent and WTI benchmarks rallied 6% and 5.4%, respectively, last week following attacks on tankers operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company in the Strait of Hormuz and an attack on a Saudi Aramco refinery. Over the weekend, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran had not decided to resume talks with the U.S., while U.S. President Donald Trump urged Americans to accept slightly higher petrol prices while the conflict continues. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply over the weekend following the tanker attacks, according to data reported on Monday. Five commodity vessels transited the strait on Saturday, while none were registered on Sunday, Reuters reported, citing ship-tracking data from Kpler. This compared with 31 vessels that crossed the strait during the previous weeken
Commodities
Gold extends losses; traders weigh Fed rate outlook
Gold prices extended their decline during Asian trading on Friday, retreating further from their highest level since 5 June as traders assessed the outlook for United States interest rates and heightened geopolitical tensions. By 3:55 pm AEST (5:55 am GMT), spot gold was down 0.5% at US$4,329.65 an ounce. The precious metal found some support near the US$4,300 level, however, as mixed fundamental signals discouraged traders from taking aggressive directional positions. U.S. producer prices were unchanged in July, according to data released on Thursday, falling short of expectations for a 0.2% increase. The annual PPI rate also slowed to 4.7% from 5.5% in June, below economists' expectations for 4.9%. The data, together with Wednesday's consumer price index report, pointed to easing inflationary pressures and could give the Federal Reserve greater scope to keep interest rates unchanged. Fed funds futures are now pricing in a 67.6% probability of a rate hike by year-end, down from 77.1% a week earlier, according to the CME Group FedWatch Tool. However, geopolitical uncertainty could continue to support the U.S. dollar and weigh on gold. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. would introduce measures a
Commodities
Oil prices edge higher on indefinite blockade threat
Oil prices edged higher during Asian trading on Friday after the United States threatened to maintain an indefinite naval blockade of Iran, reviving concerns over crude supply following a decline in the previous session. By 3:05 pm AEST (5:05 am GMT), Brent crude futures had risen 6 cents, or 0.1%, to US$87.13 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 10 cents, or 0.1%, to $81.35 per barrel. Both benchmarks were on track for weekly gains, with Brent up 4.3% and WTI 4.1%. The U.S. warned on Thursday that it could maintain a naval blockade of Iran indefinitely and increase economic pressure on Tehran as ceasefire negotiations have stalled. "Watch this space for more announcements coming next week because we are going to apply measures like have never been seen in the history of economic isolation of a country," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Newsmax's "Rob Schmitt Tonight" programme in an interview. The latest threats came as Iran continued to restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route that carried around 20% of global oil supplies before the conflict. The disruption has pushed up fuel prices and increased pressure on President Donald Trump to e
Commodities
Gold retreats from multi-month highs
Gold prices fell below the US$4,400 level during Asian trade on Thursday, retreating from multi-month highs as the United States dollar found support in cautious markets amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. By 4:05 pm AEST (6:05 am GMT), spot gold was trading 0.7% lower at US$4,377.81 an ounce. Attention now turns to U.S. producer price index (PPI) data for further signs of cooling inflation, following a mild consumer price index (CPI) report. Annual headline CPI inflation eased to 3.4% in July from 3.5% in June, in line with expectations. Core annual CPI also matched forecasts, rising 2.5%, while monthly core CPI increased 0.2% after remaining flat in June. The benign inflation readings further reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September, triggering a sell-off in the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bond yields and supporting the gold price's advance towards $4,450. However, gold prices quickly pulled back as Middle East tensions resurfaced after a senior Iranian source told Reuters there had been no progress in talks to revive the interim deal agreed in June and establish a timeframe for its implementation. In response, U.S. President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social t

Commodities
Oil eases; weaker demand outlook offsets supply concerns
Oil prices eased during Thursday’s Asian session as expectations of weaker global demand this year offset concerns over Middle East supply disruptions, with no reported progress towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz. By 3:10 pm AEST (5:10 am GMT), Brent futures had fallen 22 cents, or 0.3%, to $88.75 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 33 cents, or 0.4%, to $82.90. A senior Iranian source told Reuters on Wednesday that there had been no progress in talks to revive an interim deal agreed in June and establish a timeframe for its implementation. ING commodities strategists noted in The Commodities Feed: "There was little in the way of fresh developments between the U.S. and Iran, with both sides remaining in a deadlock. "Meanwhile, the latest large drone attack on Russia’s Novorossiysk port appears to have spared oil infrastructure, with no reports of damage to oil terminals as of now." With no change in prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, attention shifted to the demand outlook after a surprise increase in U.S. crude inventories and lower consumption forecasts from OPEC and the International Energy Agency. U.S. commercial crude inventories recorded their largest weekly incr
Commodities
Gold slips from 2mth high ahead of US CPI
Gold retreated from its highest level in two months during Asian trading on Tuesday, with investors turning their attention to the United States consumer price index (CPI) report for the next major market catalyst. By 4:10 pm AEST (6:10 am GMT), spot gold was trading 0.2% lower at US$4,382.40 an ounce. Gold prices have been supported by falling expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike following weaker-than-expected U.S.employment data. The probability of a rate hike currently stands at 49.7%, according to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, following an unexpected decline of 23,000 in U.S. nonfarm payrolls in July last week. However, a surge in oil prices overnight has revived inflation concerns, particularly after negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over a peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz reached an impasse. In a post on Truth Social on Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump demanded compensation from Iran "for all of the people that they have killed and gravely wounded with their roadside bombs and many conflicts, for which they are famous, as led initially by General Soleimani, including the families of those killed on the USS Cole, and thousands of others killed in combat". "Additionally
Commodities
Oil steadies near 1wk high; M.East deal hopes dim
Oil prices steadied on Tuesday near their highest level in more than a week as hopes faded for a deal between the United States and Iran to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. By 3:10 pm AEST (5:10 am GMT), Brent crude futures had risen 6 cents, or 0.1%, to $87.78 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $82.25 a barrel. Brent and WTI climbed 5% and 5.1%, respectively, on Monday to their highest levels since 31 July 31. The gains came after U.S. President Donald Trump responded to Iran's conditions for a peace deal by demanding compensation for people killed in wars, attacks and protests, a move likely to complicate efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump later said the U.S. had control of the strait and had swept the strategic oil waterway for Iranian mines. ING commodities strategists noted in The Commodities Feed: "The latest bout of optimism is quickly fading, with demands for war reparations from Iran, which President Trump rejected. "Trump instead insists that Iran pay reparations for the deaths of U.S. soldiers as well as Iranian civilians over the last few decades. "Current rhetoric suggests any potential deal is still some way of
Commodities
Gold ticks higher; focus turns toward US inflation data
Gold prices edged higher during Asian trading on Monday as investors turned their attention to United States inflation data due later this week. By 4:25 pm AEST (6:25 am GMT), spot gold was up 0.1% at US$4,344.82 an ounce. Bullion prices gained 7.2% last week as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased and markets responded to a weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. The data showed the U.S. economy unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs in July, compared with expectations for an increase of 80,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, although the decline was largely driven by a further reduction in the number of people working or seeking employment. Following the weak labour market data, markets reduced their expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September to 46.1%, from 67.2% a week ago, according to the CME Group FedWatch Tool. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi reportedly said on Sunday that Tehran was close to reaching an agreement with Oman on a new mechanism for managing maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. However, Araghchi also stressed that the key waterway would not reopen until Washington met additional conditions.