Markets navigated choppy waters this week as Washington finally ended its record-breaking government paralysis while tech's biggest names threw billions at AI infrastructure - even as Michael Burry warned the party might be ending. Elsewhere, unemployment in the UK reached 5% and COP30 opened in Brazil without top polluting nations present.
The contradictions were stark - just as the U.S. government shutdown dragged into its sixth week, causing economic havoc and grounding flights, Silicon Valley was unveiling plans to spend tens of billions on data centres.
Meanwhile, one of the world's most famous short-sellers, Burry, was betting it's all built on dodgy accounting.
Shutdown finally breaks
President Donald Trump signed legislation on Thursday ending the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history after more than 40 days of paralysis.
The House voted 222-209 to pass the bill, with nearly all Republicans backing it alongside a handful of Democrats who broke party lines, after the Senate had cleared it earlier in the week.
The stalemate centred on Obamacare subsidies - Republicans refused to fund enhanced tax credits for insurance premiums under the Affordable Care Act, which expire this year.
Democrats wouldn't budge on temporary funding resolutions that didn't address the subsidies.
Federal operations will resume, but the spillover damage lingers - the FAA had warned air traffic would fall as the shutdown dragged on, with Trump at one point demanding controllers go back to work despite the stalemate.
Cancelled and delayed flights are expected to continue without immediately bouncing back.
Consumer sentiment took a hit during the standoff, which also threatened to delay the release of key economic data.
Government workers can expect back pay next week, according to Kevin Hassett, though the political cost of breaking the previous 2019 record - also under Trump - remains to be seen.
While Washington was gridlocked, tech companies were racing to build the backbone of the AI boom.
Anthropic announced a US$50 billion investment to build data centres in Texas and New York, partnering with infrastructure operator Fluidstack.
The first sites open in 2026, creating 800 permanent jobs and 2,400 construction roles.
It currently has more than 300,000 business customers and expects to spend almost $3 billion in 2025 against $4.2 billion in sales - timing that's notable given mounting concerns about AI valuations.
AMD's Lisa Su laid out aggressive targets at the company's Financial Analyst Day, projecting 35% annual revenue growth to 2030 driven by "insatiable" AI demand.
The chip maker expects its AI data centre business to grow 80% per year, hitting "tens of billions of dollars" by 2027.
Su is targeting "double-digit" market share in AI chips within five years - a direct challenge to Nvidia's 90%-plus dominance.
AMD unveiled Helios, its first full server rack solution, set for Q3 2026 to compete with Nvidia's GB200 systems.
The company already has multi-billion dollar deals with OpenAI, Oracle and Meta, prompting Wall Street analysts to raise price targets, with Rosenblatt setting a $300 target and Wedbush at $290.
AMD shares closed down 2.32% to $238.31 in a potential "sell-the-news" reaction, though they've nearly doubled in 2025.
Cisco delivered its own AI validation - the networking equipment manufacturer reported a 5% jump in Q1 net income to $2.9 billion and raised its full-year revenue forecast.
AI infrastructure orders from hyperscaler customers totalled $1.3 billion, reflecting what CEO Chuck Robbins called "widespread demand" as customers rush to unlock AI's potential.
Shares hit a new high of $79.50 before closing up 4.62% at $77.38.
Burry bets against the boom
Not everyone's convinced - Michael Burry, who predicted the 2008 housing crisis, accused hyperscalers of using creative accounting to inflate profits.
The ‘Big Short’ investor claims major cloud and AI infrastructure providers are understating depreciation costs by making unrealistic assumptions about chip lifespans.
Despite rapidly increasing capital spending on Nvidia chips and servers - which typically last two to three years - Burry argues hyperscalers have extended depreciation timelines.
He estimates this could understate depreciation by up to $176 billion between 2026 and 2028.
Oracle and Meta might show earnings 27% and 21% higher than reality by 2028, according to Burry's calculations.
The claims are difficult to prove, given that accounting standards allow flexibility in estimating depreciation, but Burry's track record means investors are listening.
He revealed put options worth roughly $187 million against Nvidia and $912 million against Palantir as of 30 September.
Palantir CEO Alex Karp called the positions “super weird”.
SoftBank added fuel to valuation concerns by selling its entire 32.1 million share Nvidia stake in October for $5.8 billion.
The Japanese tech investor is redirecting funds to AI investments, including the $500 billion Stargate project and up to $40 billion for OpenAI.
Analysts said the sale indicated SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son expects a pullback in Nvidia's price, which has surged more than 1,200% over three years.
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs CEOs have warned about potential equity drawdowns.
China offers minerals truce
Beijing threw a minor olive branch on trade - China lifted its nearly year-long ban on gallium, germanium and antimony exports to the U.S., pausing restrictions until November 2026.
The ban had been imposed in December 2024 after U.S. export controls on high-bandwidth memory chips.
All three minerals are critical to U.S. national security - gallium and germanium are essential for semiconductors, with gallium used in advanced radar and germanium in infrared tech and fibre optics, while antimony is widely used in military applications.
China's dominance is staggering - 99% of refined gallium output, nearly 60% of germanium production, and almost half of mined antimony in 2023.
The U.S. Geological Survey estimated the ban could cost the economy $3.4 billion, with half hitting semiconductors.
Australian miners like Iluka are positioning rare earths assets alongside traditional mineral sands operations.
The thaw follows a Xi-Trump meeting where both sides agreed to reduce tariffs, while China also cooled tensions on Nexperia semiconductot trade.
But temporary relief shouldn't be mistaken for security - China's near-monopoly leaves Western supply chains exposed whenever Beijing decides to turn the screws again.
Australian property surges
Back home, the government's 5% Deposit Scheme triggered predictable results.
National home values rose 1.1% in October, the fastest monthly pace since May 2023, according to Cotality.
Dwellings within the scheme's price caps jumped 1.2% compared to 1% for properties above, while houses below the caps outperformed particularly strongly, rising 1.3% against 1% for units.
Melbourne's Inner East properties below caps grew 1.7%, crushing the 0.4% gain for homes above A$950,000.
The scheme, which began on 1 October with unlimited places, lets first-home buyers secure loans with 5% deposits without lender's mortgage insurance, with price caps varying by location.
Unsurprisingly, government intervention to make borrowing easier has pushed prices higher.
Regional Victoria, Western Australia, South Australia and Queensland saw notably strong outperformance in lower-end markets.
Australian unemployment fell to 4.3% in October from September's four-year high of 4.5%, with full-time employment rising 55,300 and part-time dropping 13,100, while the participation rate held steady at 67%.
Consumer and business confidence rebounded during the month.
Corporate results mixed
Earnings season delivered its usual contradictions - Commonwealth Bank profit rose - though shares dipped, while ANZ shares rose despite a full-year profit drop.
Sony raised its annual forecast following a strong second quarter, and Disney shares fell as its YouTube dispute dragged on, and Paramount-Skydance fell short on revenue post-merger.
Pfizer clinched a US$10bn acquisition of obesity drugmaker Metsera.
Industrial results fared better - Boeing defence workers voted to end their three-month strike, and Toyota opened a US$10bn battery plant.
And Waymo took its robotaxis to freeways in three cities.
