Crude remains above US$100/bbl on Hormuz disruption, LNG faces structural tightness after Qatari supply losses, and ANZ flags $4,500/oz as a gold demand floor.
Brent crude futures opened the week near $110 per barrel (bbl), with dated Brent cargoes surging to $141.36/bbl on 2 April - the highest physical crude price since 2008.
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and President Trump issued an ultimatum on 6 April threatening to escalate strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure if no deal to reopen the waterway is reached by Tuesday night.
Iron ore snapped a two-month losing streak in March, gaining more than 7% to close at $105.48 per tonne (t), though ANZ Research maintains the steelmaking ingredient faces a structural surplus through 2026.
Gold is trading around $4,675 per ounce (oz) after retreating more than $1,000 from January's all-time high above $5,600/oz.
The weekly ANZ Commodity Exchange, published by senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes and commodity strategist Soni Kumari, covers the bank's latest house views across the complex.
Crude oil
Brent crude (~$110/bbl)
ANZ expects oil prices to remain above $100/bbl in the near term, reflecting the war premium and supply losses from the Middle East conflict.
The bank's average price forecast for 2026 sits above $90/bbl, and even if hostilities end, the analysts do not expect a return to the $60-70/bbl range that prevailed before the escalation.
Production outages have already tightened the market balance for the full year.
Within OPEC, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar hold most of 5.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) of available capacity, according to ANZ, though Rystad Energy estimates effective spare capacity at a lower 3.5mb/d.
No other producers carry meaningful buffers.
ANZ warns that supply losses equivalent to 10% of total global demand remain a plausible scenario.
OPEC+ agreed on 5 April to implement another 206,000 barrels per day production increase from May, continuing the unwinding of voluntary cuts announced in April 2023.
The physical market is pricing tighter than futures.
S&P Global's dated Brent assessment hit $141.36/bbl on 2 April - a premium of more than $32 above the front-month futures contract.
The EIA's March STEO, finalised on 9 March when Brent was at $94/bbl, forecast prices remaining above $95/bbl over the next two months before falling below $80/bbl in Q3 if Hormuz transit resumes.
Prices have since moved well above that forecast.
LNG
JKM spot (~$20/MMBtu)
The global LNG market has shifted from a transit disruption into structural tightness that ANZ expects to persist for several years.
More than 20% of global LNG normally transits the Strait of Hormuz.
Physical damage at Qatar's Ras Laffan export hub has removed approximately 13 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG supply, according to ANZ, and spare liquefaction capacity was already scarce before the conflict.
The bank expects gas prices to remain near $20/MMBtu through H1 2026, retracing only marginally thereafter.
ANZ's average price forecast has shifted to $16.5/MMBtu for 2026 - a 37% increase over the 2025 average.
European inventories are low heading into the critical storage refill season.
The U.S. can ramp up LNG exports, but is unlikely to compensate for Qatar's lost supply in the near term.
Spot liquidity is thinning as buyers pivot toward long-term contracts for supply security, and both Europe and Asia are losing the inventory flexibility that previously cushioned weather-related demand spikes.
Carbon
EU Allowances (~EUR75/t)
Demand for EU Allowances (EUAs) is underpinned by rising power consumption, with manufacturing activity lifting power demand 2% year-on-year.
Supply tightness is emerging as the front-loaded REPowerEU sales wind down and emissions caps tighten.
ANZ expects EUA prices to push toward EUR85/t in 2026.
Australian Carbon Credit Units (~A$37/t)
ACCU demand remains resilient on the back of policy certainty and expectations of tighter baselines beyond 2030, with compliance obligations driving the bulk of purchasing.
Voluntary and government demand have also increased as net-zero commitments move into procurement.
ACCU supply continues to outpace demand, lifting inventories and capping prices despite stricter emission targets.
ANZ expects ACCUs to trade in the A$35-40/t range.
Base metals
Copper (~$12,195/t)
Copper remains the tightest market in the industrial metals complex.
Major mines continue to struggle with outages and conservative production guidance, leaving global mine output expected to grow by just 1% in 2026.
Smelting capacity is expanding by 4-5%, creating a squeeze in the concentrate market where treatment charges have fallen to unattractive levels.
ANZ expects the market to remain undersupplied by 4-5%, with demand from the energy transition and data centre construction keeping the deficit in place.
Already elevated prices have prompted Chinese manufacturers to postpone restocking ahead of the peak demand season, creating a temporary cushion in exchange inventories.
Rising energy costs from the Middle East conflict will lift production expenses, while sustained high energy prices tend to slow economic growth and weigh on demand.
Nickel (~$17,086/t)
Nickel prices have spiked to $18,000/t on expectations of Indonesian production cuts, with the Weda Bay operation's finished output declining by almost 100,000t.
ANZ notes that the supply impacts will lag, and overall Indonesian output is expected to remain above 2,700,000t in 2026.
Electric vehicle demand is weakening as subsidies expire in both the U.S. and China, leaving the market oversupplied by more than 5% of annual demand.
ANZ sees limited upside from current levels.
Precious Metals
Gold (~$4,675/oz)
Gold is trading more than $1,000 below its January all-time high above $5,600/oz.
Waning expectations around Federal Reserve rate cuts are creating near-term headwinds, particularly as the oil-driven inflation impulse complicates the central bank's timeline.
ANZ still favours three rate cuts across this easing cycle - two in 2026 and one in 2027 - and argues that while the timing may be deferred depending on energy prices, the direction will not be reversed.
The bank flags $4,500/oz as the level where fresh investment and retail demand should re-emerge.
Central bank purchasing is estimated at 900-950t this year, a pace that has more than doubled since 2022 according to World Gold Council data.
Silver (~$75/oz)
ANZ does not expect silver to outperform gold, citing the white metal's industrial exposure as a drag when manufacturing sentiment softens.
Platinum (~$980/oz)
Platinum is expected to lag gold through 2026.
The metal is more exposed to shifts in industrial activity than gold, and lacks the same depth of strategic investment demand and central bank buying.
Bulk commodities
Iron ore (~$107/t)
A structural market surplus remains the defining theme for the steelmaking ingredient.
Chinese port inventories have risen to 167 million tonnes (mt), a record level.
Steel production fell to 160mt in January-February 2026, down 3.6% year-on-year, as the property sector continues to contract.
New supply from Guinea's Simandou mine is pushing the global market toward oversupply, though the ramp-up will be slow - only around 15mt is expected in 2026 before the operation scales toward 40-50mt in 2027.
Anti-dumping measures and trade barriers are threatening China's ability to sustain high steel export volumes.
The Middle East conflict is providing temporary support via strengthened external steel demand, and March's rally was also driven by tropical storms in Australia and an escalating pricing dispute between China's state-run buyer and BHP.
ANZ expects prices to fall to around $90/t by end-2026.
Coking coal (~$180/t)
China's seaborne coking coal imports are likely to remain subdued as domestic production rebounds and Mongolian overland shipments expand, reducing reliance on imported seaborne cargoes.
Weak steel fundamentals, ongoing supply constraints in Australia and financial strain among Russian producers limit upside.
ANZ expects prices to hold steady in early 2026 before easing, unless Chinese demand strengthens materially.
Week ahead
FOMC minutes land on Wednesday, followed by U.S. GDP, PCE and initial jobless claims on Thursday.
U.S. CPI and University of Michigan consumer sentiment are due Friday, alongside China's CPI and PPI.
The EIA releases its Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday and its Annual Energy Outlook 2026 on Wednesday.
Weekly U.S. oil inventory reports drop on Tuesday (API) and Wednesday (EIA), with natural gas storage data on Thursday.
India and New Zealand both announce rate decisions on Wednesday.
Shell and OMV release first-quarter trading updates on Thursday.
