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Treasury yields in focus as inflationary concerns mount
United States Treasury yields were little changed on Monday as investors paused following last week’s sharp global bond selloff that pushed borrowing costs significantly higher across major economies. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, a key measure for government borrowing costs and broader financial markets, ticked 0.3% lower to 4.585% after earlier touching its highest level in 15 months. Meanwhile, the longer-dated 30-year Treasury bond yield rose 4 basis points to 5.133%. The yield had reached its highest level in almost a year during last week’s bond market turmoil. The 2-year Treasury note yield, which is closely tied to expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy, slipped 0.8% to 4.046%. One basis point equals 0.01%, while bond yields and prices move inversely. Elevated Treasury yields have intensified concerns among investors as higher borrowing costs can weigh on corporate earnings, consumer spending and broader economic growth. Rising bond yields can also pressure equity markets by making fixed-income investments more attractive relative to stocks, particularly as sharemarket valuations remain historically elevated. According to LSEG Datastream figures cited by Reuters, the S&P 500
Bonds
Bond flash: Investors warned not to chase yield now
While the United States-Israeli war with Iran has resulted in a shift in the macro-economic outlook, there’s growing speculation amongst capital markets that the fallout of this war is yet to be sufficiently priced into the market. One of the most obvious fallouts is what’s happening on the inflation front; in short, market perceptions have seriously changed. In stark contrast to the start of the year, when the U.S. Fed was pricing in two interest rate cuts, there are now no cuts in sight. Meantime, while the European Central Bank (ECB) was pricing in no cuts only a few short months ago, it is now expected to hike three times. Given that borrowers pay a benchmark rate plus a spread on any borrowings, the initial impact of the change in the macro environment on credit markets is pressure on benchmark yields. While yields are higher, yield curves are also flatter across all major economies. With central banks typically meeting up to eight times annually, there is still clearly the potential for change. However, bondholders should remember that yields change daily, and the latest Middle East war started, the U.S. 2-year government bond rate has risen 40 basis points, while the 30-year rate has gone up 20 basis point
Bonds
Rising debt raises risk of market shock: Dimon
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that rising global government debt levels are increasing the likelihood of a bond market crisis, urging policymakers to act pre-emptively rather than wait for market stress to force intervention. Speaking at an investment conference hosted by Norges Bank Investment Management, Dimon said current fiscal trajectories across major economies were unsustainable and risked triggering disorderly moves in sovereign debt markets. “The way it’s going now, there will be some kind of bond crisis, and then we’ll have to deal with it,” he said. “Maturity should say you should deal with it, as opposed to let it happen.” The warning reflects growing concern among financial leaders that record debt issuance and elevated interest rates are testing investor demand for government bonds. In the United States, federal debt is approaching US$39 trillion, with the U.S. Department of the Treasury continuing to expand issuance to fund deficits and refinance maturing obligations. Similar pressures are evident across advanced economies as borrowing costs remain higher than during the low-rate era that followed the global financial crisis. A bond market crisis typically involves a sharp rise in yi
Bonds
Trump buys up to US$161m in bonds in March
United States President Donald Trump purchased at least US$51 million (A$71.38 million) in bonds in March, according to financial disclosure forms released on Saturday. The filings, issued by the U.S. Office of Government Ethics, show Trump conducted 175 financial transactions during the month. The disclosures provide value ranges rather than precise figures, placing the combined maximum value of the bond purchases at approximately $161 million. A significant portion of the investments was directed towards municipal bonds issued by states, counties and school districts, as well as entities linked to government agencies or public-private partnerships. Among the largest transactions, 26 fell within the $1 million to $5 million range. These were primarily concentrated in municipal debt and U.S. Treasuries, although the president also made select corporate bond purchases, including offerings from Weyerhaeuser and General Motors. Trump additionally invested in an exchange-traded fund tracking a high-yield bond index, signalling exposure to riskier segments of the credit market. The disclosures show diversified corporate bond holdings across multiple sectors, including energy, technology, healthcare and financial servi
Bonds
Investors warned: Supply shock risks still under-priced
While talk of peace in the Middle East has provided a window of opportunity for bond issuers – with a long list of deals coming to market over the last week – fund managers worry about what happens if the current ceasefire doesn’t hold and gives way to prolonged attrition. Even if a deal ensues, there’s growing concern that market conditions simply won't return to business as usual overnight. After studying the market’s tea leaves, Viktor Shvets from Macquarie Capital believes stagflation remains his base case scenario, and in light of combined slower economic growth, higher unemployment, and rising prices, doesn’t expect to see relief until 2Q FY27. Given that policies to improve growth and unemployment tend to add to inflation and vice versa, Shvets flags stagflation as a significant lingering concern. While Shvets expects the Iran War to boost investment diversification and benefit non-US assets, he also expects the market to return back to where it was, namely, disruptive thematic stock picking. Buy, he also reminds the investors that the market is still in the early stages of the shock of oil filtering its way through to prices and groceries. With the shock of oil still percolating through the system, he dou

Bonds
Bond flash: War-driven inflation reshapes bond strategy
With the prospect of higher inflation, accelerated by the threat of a protracted war in the Middle East, shifting interest rate expectations, it’s not an easy time to be investing or positioning your portfolio to ride highly volatile markets. With energy-fuelled inflation shocks casting a major shadow over fixed interest and bond markets, Azzet took a look beyond the market noise for a clearer picture of what’s really going on. Firstly, let’s take a look at what’s been happening on the ground. Spiralling oil prices, courtesy of the Middle East war has sent oil prices soaring and caused a sharp upward repricing of bond yields, which suggests investors now expect "higher for longer" interest rates to combat the war against sticky inflation. Remember, whether rising yields are good or bad depends on what you’re doing as an investor. For new investors, rising yields mean you can buy bonds at a discount and receive higher annual interest (yield) than before. However, if you’re an existing bondholder, rising yields mean the market price of your current bonds drops, and if you need to sell before they mature, you’re likely to lose money on the principal.Current yieldsWhile the 5-year Commonwealth Government Bond (CGB) i
Bonds
Bonds and stocks fall in rare tandem
When looking at performance across asset classes since the beginning of the Iran war, what’s becoming increasingly evident is the scarcity of defensive assets. While oil has been a clear winner, with the price up by over 40% since the three-week-plus war between the United States, Israel and Iran began, gold – previously the darling of global markets - has suffered losses of around 14% since late February. Admittedly, the US$ managed to stage a modest rebound, but every other major asset class was down, with emerging market (EM) equities, Euro equities and EM local currency debt sitting at the bottom of that leaderboard. Duration in bonds – a measure of their price sensitivity to interest rate changes, expressed in years - has not done well either, with both the U.S. Treasury (UST) and the Bund index – which track German government bonds - down by around 2% due to upside pressure on government bond yields. Given that we’re facing a highly volatile [trading] environment, fuelled by extreme levels of geopolitical uncertainty, Benoit Anne, a senior managing director at MFS Investment Management, reminds the market that a sharp reversal of the recent moves cannot be ruled out. “At this juncture, the oil price has
Bonds
Iran war turns red-hot A$ bond issuance to trickle
The intensifying war between the United States-Israel and Iran appears to put a halt to the strong momentum experienced in the A$ credit market issuance, which has been experiencing record-breaking activity into early 2026. The notable hull in Australian credit markets follows record issuance and strong performance in 2025, when the A$ bond market saw total issuance of around A$320 billion, nearly reaching the all-time high of A$324.66 billion set in 2024. The notable downturn since the Iran war began marks a severe "flight to safety", with investors favouring cash over riskier corporate debt amidst soaring oil prices and intense uncertainty. However, the one issuance that did get away amid the chaos was the recent pricing of a small $40 million increase from MAFG Finance, the finco arm of MA Financial (ASX: MAF), to its existing 8% senior unsecured notes maturing 30 March 2029. The notes are unrated, carry an 8% coupon, and are non-callable until 30 September 2026.Pipeline of dealsSubject to market conditions, NEXTDC (ASX: NXT) - which has flagged plans for a subordinated notes offering (NextDC Notes IV) to fund its data centre capacity pipeline - will be joining a long queue of issuers ready to tap the A$ market with
Bonds
Oil shock shakes bonds’ safe haven status
With markets currently facing a geopolitical shock, courtesy of the United States-Iran war, investors are turning to government bonds for refuge, only to discover that this playbook isn’t delivering as intended. What’s derailing government bonds from behaving like the reliable, safe-haven assets is inflation concerns, driven by higher oil prices, that are outweighing growth fears and disrupting this traditional risk-off template. In a typical risk-off environment, investors tend to shift in lockstep from pursuing high returns to prioritising capital preservation due to fear or uncertainty. However, the March 2026 oil shock, driven by Middle East conflict fears, has severely undermined government bonds. Yields have spiked as investors dump debt, in anticipation that rampant energy-driven inflation will force central banks to hike interest rates rather than cut them. This has shattered the "safe haven" status of bonds, triggering a global bond market sell-off. Duration uncertaintyIt remains to be seen whether a sustained rise in oil prices - reinforced by transport disruptions - will meaningfully impact global inflation paths; yet markets aren’t waiting around to find out, they’re already moving. The duration of t