The battery world has a new favourite. Sodium-ion technology, the chemistry that lithium left behind in the 1990s, is making a credible commercial push - and the numbers are starting to back it up.
Commodity analysts at Argus Media argue that sodium-ion batteries become economically viable for mid-to-low-end applications when lithium carbonate prices hold above 150,000 yuan per tonne (around US$21,600/t) for any meaningful stretch.
Right now, lithium carbonate in China is sitting at Yn160,000-165,000/t ex-works - above that threshold, and trending upward after delayed mine restarts and policy shifts drove early procurement.
Argus also ran the numbers at scale - getting industry output to around 100GWh, and sodium-ion batteries could undercut lithium iron phosphate (LFP) by roughly 30%.
For grid-scale developers and budget EV builders, it's a real cost-benefit argument.
Scale-up is happening
China's Zoolnasm has begun output at its 10,000-tonne cathode active materials facility in Meishan, Sichuan - the first plant globally to hit that mark for sodium iron sulphate cathode stock.
Ronbay Technology has flagged plans to lift sodium-ion cathode capacity to 100,000t in 2026, with a 1 million tonne target by 2030.
The sharpest signal yet came on 5 February, when CATL and Changan jointly unveiled the world's first mass-production passenger vehicle fitted with sodium-ion cells, due for showrooms by mid-2026.
The Shenzhen giant's Naxtra pack - the chemistry going into that car - targets 175 watt-hours per kilogram (Wh/kg), operates from -40°C to 70°C, and has already cleared China's new GB 38031-2025 EV battery safety standard.
"Although sodium-ion technology is still nascent, its development trajectory is expected to mirror or even outpace that of lithium-ion batteries," CATL spokesperson Huan Gao said.
The world's largest battery maker has since confirmed volume production spanning passenger vehicles, commercial trucks, and grid storage by end of 2026 - a delivery commitment, not another roadmap.
Rival BYD, meanwhile, has disclosed third-generation sodium-ion cells rated to 10,000 charge cycles - more than triple the 2,000-3,000 typical of LFP - with commercialisation pegged to customer offtake.
On the grid side, Sinopec and LG Chem have inked a tie-up to co-develop sodium-ion cathode and anode materials, projecting China's sodium-ion market to balloon from 10GWh in 2025 to 292GWh by 2034.
Where the sceptics have a point
Here's the number that tends to get buried: sodium-ion cells currently cost more per kilowatt-hour than LFP. Not less - more.
MIT Technology Review pegs average sodium-ion costs at around $59/kWh against $52/kWh for LFP.
The scale advantage is real but unrealised.
Throughput is still thin, cathode supply chains are still finding their feet, and sodium is chasing a chemistry that spent three decades hammering its cost curve into the floor - lithium-ion cell prices collapsed from $568/kWh in 2013 to $74/kWh by 2025.
There's also a physics constraint that capital can't engineer away.
Sodium is heavier and a fundamentally weaker reducing agent than lithium - translating to lower voltages and an energy density ceiling of roughly 100-160Wh/kg, well short of lithium's 140-270Wh/kg band.
A January 2025 paper in Nature Energy, stress-testing more than 6,000 scenarios, found sodium-ion could reach cost-parity with low-cost lithium-ion variants in the 2030s - but only if "timelines are not derailed by movements in critical minerals supply chains".
Shirley Meng, professor of molecular engineering at the University of Chicago, has a bleak read - sodium's ascent has been "cursed by the very success of lithium-based batteries," a target that shifts every time lithium gets cheaper.
IDTechEx notes that several planned facilities have already run aground - Kingshine axed its proposed 6GWh plant in Jiangxi Province in early 2024, and Veken Tech deferred a 2GWh project, citing “ongoing challenges around demand uncertainty, financing, and production scale”.
Stateside, the cautionary tale is starker. Natron Energy, once billed as the U.S.'s most credible sodium-ion contender, folded in September 2025 after exhausting its runway on a planned US$1.4 billion, 14GW North Carolina facility.
Clear uses
Despite those headwinds, the chemistry has carved out its niche.
"We see sodium ion becoming the chemistry of choice for stationary storage applications, where safety and cost outweigh energy density," Alsym Energy cofounder and CEO Mukesh Chatter said.
Altris cofounder Reza Younesi, a professor at Uppsala University, frames it more bluntly: "Na ion is no longer a niche technology; it is already being commercialised in China, and there are no fundamental barriers preventing large-scale production elsewhere."
MIT Technology Review tapped sodium-ion as one of its 10 breakthrough technologies for 2026, citing grid-scale rollouts in the U.S. through Peak Energy and Syntropic Power, the latter having dropped three new sodium-ion products this month spanning residential, commercial, and utility-scale storage.
On the lab bench, a University of Surrey study published last week found that retaining water inside a key cathode compound - nanostructured sodium vanadate hydrate - nearly doubled charge capacity versus standard sodium-ion cathodes, placing the material among the top performers yet recorded.
Separately, German researchers at BAM published findings this week showing a hard carbon anode tweak can lift anode capacity by close to four times - cutting into one of the stubbornest manufacturing bottlenecks in sodium-ion cell fabrication.
IRENA weighed in late last year, observing that sodium-ion could "reduce supply risks and fortify the resilience of global battery supply chains" - language that resonates in a world still spooked by lithium's 2022 price spike.
What it means for critical minerals
Supply chain trackers will want to look at this from both ends. If sodium-ion carves out even a portion of the stationary storage segment - some projections put that at 30% by 2030 - the drag on lithium carbonate pricing becomes a real variable.
That's an exposure for Australian hard rock lithium operations already threading a volatile market.
Conversely, it's a quiet tailwind for the sodium-adjacent commodity chain: manganese, iron, and sodium sulphate producers whose feedstocks sit at the heart of cathode manufacturing.
Argus Consulting went as far as calling sodium-ion the only viable competitor to lithium-ion batteries likely to emerge this decade.
CATL's mid-2026 passenger vehicle launch puts a date on that prediction.
Whether the cost gap closes before lithium finds its next floor is the only question that matters now.
