While travel to Japan remains strong, visitors from China have fallen drastically.
Before November 2025, mainland Chinese tourists were one of the largest groups heading to Japan.
The drop in Chinese visitors started in December, with the number of Chinese tourists dipping by 43.3%, while the overall number of visitors globally rose 3.7%.
According to the Japan National Tourism Organisation (JNTO), the number of arrivals from mainland China plunged 60% year-over-year in January 2026, while overall tourist numbers were down just 4.9% year-on-year.
China also had the largest share of travellers to Japan in January 2025, but was surpassed by South Korea in 2026.
The number of travellers visiting from South Korea rose 21.6%.
There were also twice as many visitors from Taiwan as from China, with the number of arrivals from Taiwan rising 17% year-over-year in January.
The drop in Chinese tourists has also led to Japan’s surplus to narrow at the start of 2026.
According to Japan’s Finance Ministry, the tourism surplus totalled 590.1 billion Japanese yen (US$3.7 billion) in January, down 10.4% year-over-year and representing the eighth consecutive month of decline.
Despite this, spending by inbound visitors still edged up slightly to 819.4 billion yen.
The main reason for the narrower surplus was the sharp rise in overseas spending by Japanese travellers.
The number of Japanese outbound travellers increased 17.6% year-on-year in January, while their overseas travel spending surged 51.7% to JPY 229.3 billion.
Japan’s tourism appeal has risen, especially to people visiting from nearby countries, due to the weak yen, cultural familiarity and safety, according to James Cook University senior lecturer in hospitality and tourism management, Zilmiyah Kamble.
Kamble told CNBC that the decline in visitors from mainland China is “significant but not catastrophic”.
Despite Chinese tourists representing one of Japan’s most valuable inbound markets and being high spenders in retail, hospitality, and luxury goods, Kamble said Japan has historically had a diversified tourism portfolio, which provides a level of resilience.
Oxford Economics analysts said tourist numbers are “unlikely to recover anytime soon” in the near term and that Japanese businesses are looking to capture demand from elsewhere.
This follows China ending 2025 with its slowest economic growth since the end of the pandemic lockdowns, even as its economy is slowly recovering, and after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stirred up conflict with China shortly after becoming prime minister last year.
