Wall Street's forecasting machine is in overdrive.
A recent Reuters poll has returned a median 2026 bullion call of US$4,746.50 per troy ounce (oz) - the highest annual prediction in the survey's 14-year history - as strategists scramble to keep pace with a market that's blown past their previous targets.
That's a jump from the $4,275/oz estimate made just four months ago in October - and yet a year earlier, the same desks thought the yellow metal would average $2,700 in 2026.
Spot prices bounced near $5,100 on Wednesday after posting their best single-day gain in over 17 years, recovering from a brutal two-day selloff that saw the metal plunge from just shy of $5,600 on January 29 to $4,403.
"We are entering a period in which the legitimacy and resilience of the institutions and systems that have underpinned global economic and geopolitical stability for decades are being tested in ways not seen in a generation," David Russell, CEO at precious metals dealer GoldCore, said.
Wall Street's forecast stampede
Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end 2026 target to $5,400/oz, up from $4,900.
JPMorgan is projecting gold to average $5,055 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, with an aggressive upside scenario of $8,000 to $8,500 if private punters increase allocations from 3% to 4.6% of portfolios.
Bank of America strategists led by Michael Widmer reckon the metal could hit $5,000 per ounce in 2026, pointing to ballooning government deficits and national debt eroding the greenback's purchasing power.
UBS bumped its price target to $6,200 for March, June, and September 2026 (up from $5,000), with an upside scenario of $7,200 if geopolitical tensions escalate.
Morgan Stanley pegged $4,800 by the fourth quarter of 2026, while Deutsche Bank lifted its average to $4,450 from $4,000.
Citigroup has struck a more cautious tone, trimming its near-term call to $3,800/oz.
The bank's base case sees bullion easing to $3,600-$3,800 by end-2026, though it maintains a bull case of $5,000 by year-end. Yardeni Research sits at the top end with a $6,000 target.
Structural drivers intact
Strategists believe the factors propelling bullion - geopolitical risks, robust central bank accumulation, concerns about Fed independence, rising U.S. debt, trade uncertainty, and de-dollarisation - will continue underpinning the safe-haven asset.
Monetary authorities are expected to keep adding to reserves as they diversify away from the greenback.
Goldman Sachs expects buying to average 70t per month, while JPMorgan reckons around 190t per quarter from official sector purchases.
The caveat: jewellery offtake is likely to contract further in key Asian markets due to elevated prices.
Silver hits record territory
The Reuters poll also revised white metal calls sharply upward.
Strategists now expect silver to average $79.50 per ounce in 2026, compared with a $50 projection in October.
Silver surged 147% in 2025 and hit an all-time high of $121.64 on January 29 before slumping to $89.70.
Citigroup is more bullish and reckons the metal will reach $150 within three months, calling it "gold on steroids".
Bank of America sees silver averaging $60/oz in 2026 due to supply deficits, though the desk ranked the metal highest for "bubblelike asset dynamics" in recent analysis.
