As the first month of the year concludes, commodities investors are navigating what ANZ analysts describe as protracted "mixed messaging" regarding China’s economic stimulus and a potential hawkish pivot in global monetary policy.
While the energy sector braces for a United States-led reconstruction of the Venezuelan oil industry, the industrial metals market is confronting a widening gap between structural supply deficits and softening Chinese demand.
Precious Metals
Gold (US$4,892/oz) Following a historic "melt-up" that saw prices nearly touch US$5,600 earlier in the week, gold suffered its largest one-day percentage drop in forty years.
The primary catalyst was the nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve, which calmed risk-off sentiment and strengthened the U.S. dollar on expectations of a more disciplined monetary path.
Despite the pullback, major producers like Newmont remain supported by persistent de-dollarisation trends and central bank buying, which ANZ suggests will provide a structural floor for the metal throughout 2026.
Silver (US$85.21/oz) Silver mirrored gold’s volatility but with significantly more intensity, plummeting from an all-time high of over $120 as speculators unwound positions.
Analysts at Standard Chartered noted that the gold-to-silver ratio reached extremes last seen in 2011, signalling a necessary consolidation.
On the supply side, First Majestic Silver continues to ramp up North American operations as industrial demand from solar manufacturing remains at record levels.
Energy
Crude Oil (Brent US$63.87/bbl; WTI US$59.78/bbl) Oil prices have firmed as the U.S. military enforces a blockade over Venezuelan shipping to control export revenues.
President Trump has called for a $100 billion investment to rebuild the nation’s energy sector, prompting service giants like SLB to prepare for a boom in South American demand.
Meanwhile, ExxonMobil remains a key player in navigating new heavy crude flows as the region’s energy map is redrawn to exclude Russian influence.
Uranium (US$82.85/lb) Uranium remains a standout performer as "Big Tech" firms like Meta secure massive nuclear-backed power deals to fuel AI data centres.
The market was further energised by the U.S. Department of Energy’s $2.7 billion contract for enrichment services, designed to sever reliance on Russian supply.
Cameco and Centrus Energy are currently at the forefront of this domestic enrichment expansion, with prices hitting four-month peaks.
Natural Gas & LNG (US$3.34/MMBtu) U.S. natural gas surged over 12 per cent this week, diverging from global LNG benchmarks which remain under pressure from a looming "supply wave" out of Qatar.
Exporters like Woodside Energy are closely monitoring shifting maritime trade routes as transit costs through the Suez and Panama Canals face new geopolitical hurdles.
Coal (US$107.10/t) Thermal coal prices have defied bearish forecasts, supported by U.S. utilities delaying power plant retirements to meet the soaring baseload requirements of AI infrastructure.
While the IEA anticipates a global plateau by 2030, companies like Whitehaven Coal continue to see robust demand from Asian emerging markets.
Industrial Metals
Copper (US$6.00/lb) The copper market is currently facing a structural 1 million tonne deficit as supply disruptions at major mines coincide with the global energy transition.
Speculation regarding a mega-merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore continues to swirl, which would create a company worth over $300 billion.
Rio Tinto has also moved to "green" its production, energising a new solar plant at its Kennecott operations in Utah to lower its carbon footprint.
Lithium (US$20,320/t) Lithium prices have entered a phase of stabilisation following a multi-month rally driven by aggressive restocking in China.
While Ganfeng Lithium and Albemarle benefit from this recovery, Western miners are increasingly focused on onshoring supply chains through new government grants designed to break the existing Asian monopoly.
Nickel (US$17,910/t) Nickel prices found support this week as logistical hurdles in Indonesia constrained exports of refined metal.
Vale and other major producers are navigating a tightening market as U.S. policy continues to favour North American projects for EV tax credit eligibility, putting a premium on non-Asian supply.
Aluminium (US$3,189/t) Aluminium surged to multi-month highs following a series of smelter closures in Europe due to unmanageable energy costs.
Rio Tinto strengthened its market share by acquiring Votorantim's interest in Brazil’s CBA, securing a significant increase in its low-carbon aluminium output to meet rising automotive demand.
Iron Ore (US$108.25/t) Iron ore remains resilient despite ANZ analysts warning that China’s "mixed messaging" stimulus is unlikely to reverse a structural decline in demand.
The industry is closely watching the Rhodes Ridge feasibility study in the Pilbara, as Rio Tinto and BHP collaborate on a landmark project to unlock one of the world’s largest undeveloped deposits.
