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Elections

Elections
Newspoll: Coalition support at all-time low; Albo rises
The Coalition experienced a collapse in the latest Newspoll since the election, with core support at a 40-year low. This comes as Anthony Albanese begins his second term as Prime Minister and Sussan Ley takes over the leadership of the Liberal Party from Peter Dutton. The exclusive newspoll conducted for The Australian was the first since the federal election on 3 May, and shows that primary support for the two major parties has fallen to a historic low of 65% as more Australians begin to support minor parties. With preference flows factored in, Labor has extended its two-party preferred lead from 55.2%-48.8% at the election to 57%-43% over the Coalition, marking the second highest lead for Labor since August 2022. At the same time, support for The Coalition has suffered a decline to its lowest ever recorded election primary vote of 31.8%, which has now dipped even lower to 29%. It is also an 11-point decrease from its recent peak of 40%, when the Albanese government was thought to be heading towards defeat. As for other parties, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has gained 1.6% to a total of 8% support, and the Greens have remained steady at 15%. On an individual level, Albanese’s approval rating has improved from
Elections
Tasmania’s 2025 election points to a hung parliament
Tasmania is poised for another hung parliament following its 19 July (Saturday) state election, with polling showing the Liberals leading Labor but falling short of a majority. The likely outcome is a minority government reliant on a diverse crossbrench, including independents and Greens. Prominent independents such as Kristie Johnston and Peter George have ruled out formal confidence-and-supply agreements, instead pledging to assess legislation on the merits. This fragmented landscape follows a turbulent campaign triggered by a no-confidence motion against Premier Jeremy Rockliff, and marks the fourth state election in seven years. There are risks and opportunities associated with political uncertainty. The absence of a stable majority government may delay infrastructure approvals, planning reforms, and high-end development projects — particularly in Hobart’s waterfront precinct, where the proposed AFL stadium remains contentious. While both major parties support the stadium, the Greens and several independents oppose it, citing environmental and fiscal concerns. This could stall Tasmania’s broader destination branding efforts, which are crucial to attracting international capital into luxury residential and
Elections
Karol Nawrocki wins Poland's presidential election
Right-wing populist Karol Nawrocki has narrowly won Poland's presidential election in a runoff against pro-European Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski. Nawrocki won 50.89% of the vote compared with Trzaskowski's 49.11%, according to Poland's National Electoral Commission. Initial Ipsos exit polls showed Trzaskowski with a 0.6% lead. “Thank you! For participating in the presidential elections. For the turnout. For fulfilling your civic duty. For taking responsibility for Poland,” wrote outgoing President Andrzej Duda, who endorsed Nawrocki. “Congratulations to the winner! Stay strong, Poland!” Trzaskowski had declared victory soon after the polls closed, saying: “This is truly a special moment in Poland’s history. I am convinced that it will allow us to move forward and focus on the future.” Nawrocki did not concede at the time. Nawrocki heads the Institute of National Remembrance, a state research institute intended to investigate Nazism and communism prior to 1990. He supports integration with NATO and United States President Donald Trump, with U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem recommending Poland elect Nawrocki at a conservative conference in the country last week. Nawrocki is backed by the right-wing po
Elections
Centrist parties lead in Poland, Portugal, Romania polls
Centrist leaders took the lead in Portugal, Romania, and Poland’s election races this weekend. Portugal’s presidential race saw the centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) win the country’s third snap election in three years, but fall short of a majority, with the far-right Chega party potential to take a record 20% of the votes. With more than 99% of the vote counted, the AD led by prime minister, Luís Montenegro had won 32.1% of the vote and 86 seats in Portugal's 230-seat assembly, just shy of the 116 needed for a majority. The Socialist and Chega Party won 23.4% and 22.6% of the vote respectively and 58 seats each. In Romania, centrist mayor of Bucharest, Nicuşor Dan is set to win the presidential election with 99% of the votes counted. Official figures show the pro-EU independent eight points ahead of his far-right rival George Simion. Latest figures show Dan on 54.2% of the vote and self-professed Trump admirer, Simion on 45.8%. Simion has disputed the polls, but it is unclear what steps he could take to contest the outcome. “We are the clear winners of these elections. We claim victory in the name of the Romanian people,” Simion said. Meanwhile, centrist leader Rafał Trzaskowski and historian Karol Naw
Elections
Singapore election set for 3 May amid economic pressures
Singapore has dissolved its parliament and called an election, as the country’s economy struggles with cost of living pressures and the United States’ tariffs. The election will be held on 3 May, with the campaign officially beginning on 23 April. The country’s 97 parliamentary seats will be up for election, and voting is compulsory for Singaporean citizens. “We are witnessing profound changes in the world. It is becoming more uncertain, unsettled and even unstable. The global conditions that enabled Singapore’s success over the past decades may no longer hold,” said Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. "That is why I have called this General Election. At this critical juncture, Singaporeans should decide on the team to lead our nation, and to chart our way forward together.” While Wong’s conservative People’s Action Party (PAP) has governed Singapore since its independence, the opposition Workers’ Party saw its representation increase to a record 10 seats in 2020’s elections. The PAP won 83 seats that year, with its popular vote falling by 9% to 61%. This will also be Wong’s first election as the leader of the PAP, with previous Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong stepping down in May 2024. The election will featur

Elections
$1.4m online ad price tag for first week of election run
Labor and the Coalition have racked up a bill of almost $1.4 million on Meta and Google advertising in just the first few days of the election campaign. This campaign trail is expected to see record online spending, and this new data lays out the who, what, where, when and how the funds have been used, ahead of the pre-polling in two weeks. In the week up to 6 April, the Liberal Party spent $314,000 on Meta ads, which owns Facebook and Instagram, and an additional $257,000 on Google, however Labor dropped far more of their advertising dollars with Google than Meta. The ALP dropped $653,000 with Google and $158,000 to Meta. Third parties are not to be discounted from this spending spree, with Clive Palmer unsurprisingly coming out ahead of both the major and minor parties for his spending on Trumpet of Patriots election material coming in at a total of $668,000 so far. The conservative Advance Australia spent $212,000 for Meta ads and a further $30,000 for Google, branches of the Greens paid Google more than $40,000 and Climate 200, which backed teal independents in the past election campaign, has dropped $112,000 to date, mostly on Facebook and Instagram.
Elections
Federal Election: ABC to host 2025 leaders' debate
The ABC is set to host the free-to-air leaders’ debate when Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton go head-to-head on 16 April. According to ABC news director Justin Stevens, the debate will give Australians a chance to hear from both leaders. “The ABC serves metro, rural and remote areas with Australia’s largest audience footprint for radio and terrestrial coverage and the leading digital news service,” he said. “It’s terrific that the leaders will be appearing on the national public broadcaster and talking directly to as many Australians as possible.” The debate will be moderated by ABC national political lead and Insiders host David Speers, who first moderated a leaders’ debate in 2007. The topics and questions in the debate will not be shared to the candidates or the public prior to the event, and each leader will make an opening and closing statement and have equal time to answer questions. Speers said his goal is to give both leaders equal treatment. “This will be a gimmick-free debate, focused on the major challenges facing Australia at a critical time, and where the two leaders stand,” Speers said. “The aim is to give voters an opportunity to hear the Prime Minister and O
Elections
Damp squib: Fed election ’25 a big yawn for investors: Oliver
While the federal Labor party has been trailing in two-party preferred polling, there’s growing speculation that the election outcome will result in a hung parliament with a minority government requiring the support of minor parties/independents to govern. With that in mind, Azzet went searching for clues as to the likely impact on markets. First some histrionics: Share markets typically track sideways ahead of elections. If history is any proxy, it’s unclear if victory by either major party is better for shares, with market movement being more fixated on what’s happening offshore, notably in the United States market. Since mid-February, the ASX200’s slide from 8,5555 points to 7,759 points today can be directly attributed to global market panic relating to U.S. tariff measures. A study of elections over the last 40 years reveals that in 10 out of 15 elections, shares were up 3 months later by an average of 4.2%. Here are some useful insights into market performance following the past elections.Since WW2 shares have returned (capital growth + dividends) 12.9% pa under Coalition governments and 9.7% pa under Labor.During the reformist Hawke/Keating government, shares returned 17.2% pa.CoreLogic data re
Elections
Nationals gain, WA Labor cements election victory
The Labor Party has cemented an expected victory in WA's state election with more seats than anticipated, yet down from its landslide victory in 2021. Ther Roger Cook-led Labor is set to win 41 seats so far, with Liberal five and Nationals four. Nine out of the 59 seats are still in doubt at time of writing. Crucially for the Liberals, it's gained back its seats of Carine, Churchlands and Nedlands - which had swung to Mark McGowan on the back of his leadership through the COVID-19 pandemic. It's also currently ahead in Albany, Kalamunda and Murray-Wellington.Credit: WA Electoral CommissionRetreat from major partiesYet in regional WA, Labor lost ground to the Nationals. The Australia-wide country-focused party retained its three lower seats, and have gained a fourth seat, Geraldton, which had been an electorate that had historically swung between Labor and Liberal since 1947. The blowback is seen to be pushed by Labor's struggle with cultural heritage - such as the Juukan Gorge debarble - as well as gun laws, youth crime and commodities such as timber and live exports. "Regional WA has turned its back on Labor, because Labor has turned its back on regional WA," Nationals Leader Shane Love said. "That message will