The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has doubled down on its market intervention strategy, extending its cobalt export suspension for an additional three months through September.
The DRC government's Authority for the Regulation and Control of Strategic Mineral Substances Markets (ARECOMS) cites "persistent oversupply" as justification for keeping the taps dry.
However, the ban isn't just about supply fundamentals at all - it's about a producer nation (the heart of global cobalt production) crying out for stability.
There are active negotiations between the DRC and the U.S. for what's being called a "minerals for peace" deal, drawing parallels to the minerals agreement Trump has discussed with Ukraine.
That's because it's been facing a security threat from the M23 rebel group backed by Rwanda, which has seized control of major eastern cities including Goma and Bukavu. At least 7,000 people have been killed since January 2025.
Find out more: Mission Critical: US play for Congolese minerals wealth
Strategic signaling timeline
February 2025: DRC implements initial 4-month cobalt export ban
March 2025: DRC officials approach the Trump administration with a formal proposal for a minerals-security partnership
April 2025: Peace deal talks conducted between DRC and Rwanda
June 18, 2025: U.S. brokers deal for signing of peace deal in Washington on June 27
June 21, 2025: Cobalt ban extended for 3 more months
Price spikes and inventory drops
The immediate market response validates the DRC's strategy: international refined cobalt prices jumped from $10/lb to $15/lb (a 50% increase), while cobalt raw material prices surged from $6/lb to $12/lb (a 100% increase), according to Discovery Alert's analysis.
This represents exactly the market rebalancing Kinshasa intended when prices hit nine-year lows earlier this year.
As the world's largest cobalt processor, refining ~80% of global production, the ban extension hits China hard; its businesses having to maintain operations using existing inventories - a 2-3 month buffer that's rapidly depleting.
Fastmarkets analysis in March based on just the initial four month ban showed Chinese processors facing production challenges and margin compression of 20-30% as inventories run dry by August-September.
Further halting cobalt supply creates an immediate supply crisis for refiners who built their business models around reliable Congolese feeds.
"Chinese companies that have invested billions of dollars into the DRC's mining industry" now face "significant risks" from this uncertainty, Fastmarkets analyst Robert Searle told AFP back in March.
Double-edged sword
Perhaps the most significant ramification of DRC's cobalt restrictions is that it's accelerating a shift away from cobalt-intensive battery chemistries.
The ban has already turbocharged the transition from cobalt-containing NCM batteries to cobalt-free lithium iron phosphate (LFP) alternatives.
LFP market share in Chinese EV markets increased from 45% in 2024 to 63% in Q2 2025, demonstrating the market's rapid adaptation to changing cost structures.
"The fact that the government has intervened to stop low prices, by suspending exports, reduces the appetite for cobalt chemistries and the reliance on the region for battery materials as a whole," a European OEM told Fastmarkets.
The Indonesian deputy for investment and mining coordination (Indonesia is a cobalt-producing nation) warned the DRC's strategy could backfire too: "It's dangerous to set the cobalt price too high. The downstream market will find an alternative, like what's happened with nickel battery chemistries."
