A Hormuz tanker strike and a collapsed ceasefire sent Brent back above US$77/bbl this week, unwinding the dovish Fed repricing that had carried gold and silver to multi-month highs just days earlier.
Commodity markets reversed sharply as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire that had underpinned early July trading collapsed within 48 hours, sending Brent surging back above $77/bbl and dragging gold and silver down from the multi-month highs they had set only days before.
President Trump declared the June memorandum of understanding "over" on Wednesday, speaking from the NATO summit in Ankara, after Iran struck a Qatari-owned LNG carrier and a Saudi tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and Washington responded by revoking Tehran's oil-sale waiver and striking Iranian targets.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard said it hit 85 U.S. military sites across Bahrain and Kuwait in response, triggering a broad risk-off move that hammered Asian equities and pushed traders to price back in the Federal Reserve rate hike they had all but abandoned after the previous week's weak jobs report.
Base metals and bulk commodities were comparatively unaffected this week, with the sharpest moves concentrated in oil and precious metals.
Crude oil (Brent US$77.92/bbl; WTI US$73.99/bbl)
Brent surged more than 5% on Wednesday to $77.92/bbl, its sharpest one-day gain since the truce began fraying, though the benchmark remains about 15% below where it traded a month earlier, before the ceasefire took effect.
The reversal followed a sequence of events in which Iran struck a Qatari LNG carrier and a Saudi tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. revoked Tehran's oil-sale waiver and struck Iranian targets, and Tehran said it had retaliated against 85 U.S. military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait.
Upstream operators including ExxonMobil and Chevron, which had ramped extraction through the ceasefire window to meet summer demand, now face uncertainty over how much of that output can keep moving through the strait.
Energy analysts have already begun reversing the short-cycle downgrades issued only a week earlier, with traders pricing the regional risk premium back into futures curves.
Natural gas and LNG (US$3.28/MMBtu)
Henry Hub futures firmed to around $3.28/MMBtu, broadly in line with the EIA's second-half forecast, supported by a domestic heatwave and rising flows to LNG export terminals rather than by events in the Gulf.
Iran's strike on a laden Qatari LNG carrier exiting the strait sent European benchmark gas prices climbing as much as 4.5% in early trading, a divergence from the domestically driven move in Henry Hub.
North American infrastructure operators continued to prioritise export deliveries to work through a still-elevated domestic storage surplus, favouring cargo volumes as the summer injection season progresses.
Major seaborne LNG terminal operators, Cheniere Energy among them, continued locking in long-term offtake agreements as buyers sought to secure supply years in advance.
Industrial buyers and power providers pressed ahead with independent gas-fired generation projects designed to insulate data centres from swings in the broader baseload electricity grid.
Coal (US$143.20/t)
Newcastle high-calorific thermal coal held within a range consistent with benchmark thermal coal pricing at $143.20 a tonne (t), as utility desks weighed near-term summer generation burn against the longer-run shift away from coal-fired power.
Upside for seaborne thermal cargoes stayed capped after official data confirmed a rise in clean electricity output across Chinese regional grids, curbing absolute coal consumption even as demand for baseload capacity elsewhere held firm.
Top-tier producers such as BHP shifted operational focus toward domestic rail logistics, working to keep delivery volumes steady into premium Asian import hubs despite the softer demand backdrop.
Gold (US$4,087/oz)
Gold gave back much of the previous week's rally within 48 hours, sliding to around $4,030/oz on Wednesday before steadying near $4,087/oz, its lowest close since 2 July.
The reversal tracked President Trump's declaration that the interim peace agreement with Iran was "over," a move that sent oil surging and pushed Federal Reserve rate-hike odds back up after they had fallen on the back of the previous week's weak jobs report.
Traders now price a roughly two-thirds chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike by September, up from about 50% in the days immediately after June's weak payrolls print.
Gold's decline ran counter to its usual safe-haven role, since higher energy prices raised the odds of tighter monetary policy, and it was that channel, rather than war risk, that dominated trading this week, even as China's central bank reported its largest monthly gold-reserve addition in more than two and a half years.
Silver (US$57.56/oz)
Silver fell harder than gold, sliding toward $57.56/oz on Wednesday and touching its lowest level since December 2025.
The slide erased the bulk of the prior week's rally, which had carried silver above $62/oz on the same dovish Fed repricing that has since been priced back out of the market following the ceasefire's collapse.
Physical demand from photovoltaic solar cell manufacturers and consumer electronics producers has held broadly steady through the reversal.
The gold-silver ratio, which had compressed to around 67 during last week's rally, has since widened back to around 71 as silver's selloff outpaced gold's.
Copper (US$13,309/t [US$6.10/lb])
LME copper drifted down toward $13,300/t this week as the same hawkish repricing that hit gold pressured base metals broadly, though the move has so far been comparatively contained next to the swings in precious metals and oil.
Speculative positioning stayed measured as global distribution networks braced for the final trade policy updates expected out of Washington.
Mine-end supply remains tightly constrained across the industry, even after Anglo American and Codelco formalised a joint mine plan for Los Bronces and Andina aimed at unlocking long-cycle brownfield tonnes.
Any extra volume from that initiative was immediately offset by fresh legal setbacks affecting desalination infrastructure permits in South America.
Aluminium (US$3,164.50/t)
Aluminium contracts on the London Metal Exchange slipped through a mild bout of technical liquidation, extending a retreat toward a four-month low, as warehouse auditors reported a steady inflow of previously uncommitted physical units.
The softer prompt price was partly offset by a firm cash backwardation structure across prime North American distribution terminals, which kept near-term spreads tight.
Primary smelters, Alcoa among them, continued to actively manage regional refinery output, a strategy designed to shield margins from elevated energy costs across their domestic smelting footprint.
Nickel (US$16,824/t)
The nickel complex traded within a tight, well-established technical channel, as a build-up of high-grade refined inventories inside LME warehouses kept front-month spot values in check.
Downstream stainless steel mills managed feedstock margins comfortably, helped by a persistent Indonesian supply glut that has kept prices anchored near multi-month lows.
Major diversified miners, including Glencore and BHP, kept up strict capital reviews of their asset bases, throttling back high-cost Western mine infrastructure to preserve spending capacity elsewhere.
Lithium (US$21,380/t [154,800 CNY/t])
Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices diverged by region, with Northeast Asian levels holding a premium at $21.38/kg while North American delivery points settled lower at $10.50/kg.
Spot procurement desks trimmed short-term bid margins after Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) confirmed its Jianxiawo lepidolite mine in Jiangxi resumed production on 29 June, ending a roughly ten-month suspension.
Major producers such as Albemarle continue to calibrate supply responses against expectations of a multi-year structural deficit in the battery-metal chain.
Iron ore (US$98.25/t)
Iron ore fines slipped below the $100/t threshold, with the benchmark seaborne assessment pinning fines at $98.25/t, as blast furnace utilisation rates across major Chinese steelmaking hubs entered a cyclical contraction.
Portside stockpiles stayed elevated, tilting near-term leverage toward procurement managers, while China's state-backed buyer separately moved to restrict domestic mills from purchasing new dollar-denominated cargoes of Fortescue's Super Special Fines product.
Longer-term forecasts point the other way, with Australia's Department of Industry, Science and Resources projecting a five-year downward trend for iron ore as global supply expands and Chinese demand moderates.
Uranium (US$85.50/lb)
Yellowcake spot prices sat near an established multi-month floor, shedding the speculative premium built up earlier in the year as near-term utility procurement slowed.
Mid-tier producers such as Energy Fuels paused active ore campaigns temporarily, using the lull to rebuild feedstock stockpiles ahead of a planned fourth-quarter restart.
Long-cycle supply remains tight regardless, as global nuclear utilities compete for volumes alongside technology firms now seeking dedicated nuclear baseload capacity directly from source operators.
