Precious metals are turning defensive as the greenback flexes its hawkish muscles, while base metals are grappling with a margin squeeze driven by a record-setting sulphur rally.
Gold
The yellow metal is navigating a structural recalibration as investors debate whether gold ETF outflows are misleading the broader market narrative.
Macro strategists argue that the next parabolic surge for bullion will follow a definitive recessionary signal rather than current geopolitical noise.
The hawkish tilt from the Fed chair nominee has forced a violent deleveraging of speculative long positions across the London and New York desks.
Price: US$4,721/oz
Silver
Doctor Copper’s shiny cousin is struggling to keep pace, trapped beneath key Fibonacci resistance levels and feeling the heat from solar manufacturer thrifting as companies hunt for cheaper alternatives.
The recent leveraged liquidations have left the "hot money" on the sidelines, waiting for a definitive signal that the dollar has peaked.
Despite the chop, industrial load remains a long-term pillar for the silver handle, even if the speculative bid is currently missing in action.
Price: US$74.44/oz
Crude Oil
The oil tape erased most of its ceasefire-driven losses this week as the playground realised that the Strait of Hormuz remains a high-risk corridor.
Even with the "open" status of the Strait, the existing U.S. blockade on Iranian vessels and lingering naval tensions are keeping Brent in triple-digit territory.
ExxonMobil and Chevron are maintaining elevated output, but the risk of an infrastructure-driven production halt remains a primary concern for the second half of 2026.
Price: Brent US$100.45/bbl; WTI US$103.32/bbl
Natural Gas
Henry Hub is finally finding some traction as the playground looks past the shoulder season toward a massive ramp-up in export capacity.
Agentic AI and hyper-scale data centre builds are starting to dictate domestic gas dynamics, with the forward curve repricing higher to account for surging baseload demand.
The gas handle is becoming increasingly tethered to the power load of U.S. tech hubs rather than traditional heating cycles.
Price: US$2.67/MMBtu
LNG
With Middle Eastern flows curtailed, Cheniere Energy and other North American exporters are seeing record inquiries from Southeast Asian utilities looking to lock in supply security.
The regional price spread has widened as tankers reroute around Africa to avoid the contested waters of the Persian Gulf and Red Sea.
Shipping logistics are becoming the primary friction point for the global LNG trade as insurance premiums continue to climb.
Price: US$14.20/MMBtu
Copper
The copper tape is within sight of its all-time high as Chinese smelters hit record activity to secure their positions despite razor-thin margins.
Margins are being crushed by the Iran war's "sulfurous fallout," which has spiked the cost of processing agents and sulphuric acid across the globe.
The White House’s new Section 232 tariffs have created a bifurcated playground, with U.S. domestic premiums decoupling from LME benchmarks.
Price: US$13,261/t
Lithium
The lithium floor is looking more solid as the industry works through the 2025 glut and focuses on capital discipline.
Industry leader Albemarle is betting on a 2026 demand rebound, projecting that EVs and grid storage will keep the battery boom alive.
In British Columbia, Mangrove has opened a new refinery to help close the lithium gap and provide a regional alternative to Asian processing hubs.
Price: US$16,500/t
Iron Ore
The iron ore rally took a breather this week as the wire shifted its focus to diplomatic manoeuvres in Beijing.
Prices slid after BHP’s new CEO visited Beijing, fuelling expectations that supply normalisation and freight rate stabilisation are on the horizon.
While Rio Tinto and Fortescue are maximising shipping windows, the cooling property sector in China is forcing a more disciplined approach to tonnage expansion.
Price: US$102.10/t
Nickel
Nickel is still anchored by a supply-side overhang, though the sulphur rally squeezes makers in Indonesia and copper miners in Africa.
Jakarta has signalled potential output curbs to support pricing, but the board remains clouded by high LME hoard levels that refuse to clear.
The logistical friction from the Iran conflict is adding a layer of hidden costs to refined metal delivery for both BHP and Glencore.
Price: US$17,350/t
Aluminium
The aluminium tape is being rewritten by trade barriers that have spiked the Midwest Premium in the U.S. Operational risks remain skewed to the upside as phased shutdowns at Gulf smelters continue to pinch refined metal availability.
Producers are refocusing on local supply chains as Greenland's actions amount to expropriation of critical asset interests in the eyes of some miners.
Price: US$2,640/t
Uranium
Yellowcake spot prices hit a two-month low as the immediate supply-side crunch shows signs of a temporary thaw following the ceasefire.
Despite the dip, Paladin Energy has increased its FY2026 guidance at the Langer Heinrich mine to capitalise on the AI-led baseload boom.
Analysts at Bank of America maintain that uranium spot prices could hit US$135/lb by late 2026, driven by an unprecedented tech-led pivot toward nuclear power.
Price: US$84.30/lb
Coal
Thermal units are still holding the high ground as Asian utilities maintain aggressive stockpiles to hedge against any sudden energy disconnect.
The U.S. government has rejected a utility's bid to shutter an Indiana coal plant, citing grid reliability concerns amidst the AI energy surge.
As long as LNG remains volatile, coal continues to reclaim its status as the necessary bedrock of the global power grid.
Price: US$128.70/t
