Global commercial property group Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW) has forecast annual earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) growth of between 5.80% and 6.60% from 2025 to 2028.
Formed from the international assets of the Australian-founded Westfield property group, URW confirmed guidance that adjusted recurring earnings per share (AREPS) would fall to €9.30-9.50 (A$16.20-$16.50) in 2025 from €9.85 in 2024, even with accelerated disposals.
The Paris-based and ASX-listed company said AREPS would drop further to at least €9.15 in 2026, reflecting the “mechanical effect” of €2.2 billion of disposals, before rising 3-5% in 2027 and 2028 to €9.70-10.10 in 2028.
The drivers of the increase in AREPS would be organic net rental income growth, new revenue and the ramp-up of project deliveries.
URW said cumulative distributions would increase to at least €3.1 billion in the 2025-28 fiscal years, including €4.50 per share in 2025, up from €3.50 in 2024, a payout ratio of 60% in 2026 and a normalised payout ratio of 60-70% starting in 2027.
“URW has established a platform that will deliver further growth, sustainable value creation and strong shareholder returns,” Chief Executive Officer Jean-Marie Tritant said in a media release.
He said the combination of its flagship retail assets in Europe and the United States and operations expertise would drive organic growth above indexation over the plan's horizon.
This growth includes the expansion in retail media through its in-house media agency Westfield Rise and it would be boosted by action to leverage the Westfield brand and grow it around the world through its new licensing business.
Project deliveries would also fuel growth and significant optionality has been created in a range of future development opportunities to unlock value through capital recycling.
URW was created in 2018 when European real estate giant Unibail-Rodamco acquired Australian-American shopping centre company Westfield Corporation, which itself had been split out of Westfield Group, the shopping centre company founded in Australia in 1960.
URW owns 72 shopping centres in Europe and the United States, many of which are branded Westfield.
Westfield Corp focused on international assets while Scentre Group (ASX: SCG) took over Australian and New Zealand operations.
Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (ASX: URW) shares closed up three cents (0.46%) at $6.53 on Wednesday, capitalising the company at €10.93 billion (A$19.02 billion).
