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Real estate return seen at 7-9% - Dexus
Australian real estate is entering a rare and significant cyclical upswing which could produce returns of between 7% and 9% over the next year, according to Dexus Research. The firm said the property market was showing signs of recovery, seen only twice in the last 35 years, once after the 1994 recession and once after the global financial crisis in 2010. The research and market insights division of real estate investment trust Dexus (ASX: DXS) said each recovery was followed by average total returns of 10% per year over five years. “As the market shifts into recovery, Dexus believes improved investor confidence and strengthening fundamentals will drive increased transaction activity across all sectors,” it said in the Q4 2025 Australian Real Asset Review. Calling it “the return of returns”, Head of Research Peter Studley said he expected the major real estate sectors to deliver returns between 7% and 9% over the next year. “Australia’s economy is entering a phase of cautious optimism,” Studley said. “We’re seeing easing inflation, stronger business confidence, and a transition from public to private sector-led growth. “Compared to two years ago, we have higher initial yields, firmer demand, and a looming supp
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Northeast, Midwest have US' hottest housing markets
The United States’ Northeast and Midwest had the country’s top 20 hottest housing markets in September, according to a Realtor.com report. The report measures hotness by market demand and market pace, based on unique views of online property listings and the time listings are active. Springfield, Massachusetts held the top spot for a fifth consecutive month. “High demand and low inventory have driven the larger Boston/New England area to the top of the hot markets list over the past few years as views per property and time on the market outpace the rest of the country,” wrote Realtor.com senior economic research analyst Hannah Jones. Springfield’s median listing price was US$370,000, below the national median of $425,000. All housing markets in the top 20 were located in either the Northeast or the Midwest, with Wisconsin featuring the most markets on the list. In these seven Wisconsin markets, which include Kenosha, Green Bay, and Milwaukee-Waukesha, properties sold an average of 27 days faster than average U.S. listings last month. All Wisconsin markets on the list except Green Bay were also priced below the national median. Connecticut had the second-most markets on the top 20 list, at four. The U.S.’ large
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Cotality: Home prices log fastest monthly rise since 2023
Australian home values climbed at their fastest pace in almost a year in September, with record-low listings and firm demand combining to push prices higher across the capital cities. According to Cotality’s Home Value Index (HVI), national dwelling values rose 0.8% last month, the strongest monthly increase since October 2023. Prices in the capital cities lifted 0.9%, led by Darwin with a 1.7% gain, Perth at 1.6% and Brisbane at 1.2%. Sydney, the country’s largest market, rose 0.8%. On a quarterly basis, the national HVI advanced 2.2%, up from 1.5% in the June quarter and double the 1.1% rise recorded in the March quarter. In dollar terms, the September quarter rise added about $18,215 to the median dwelling value. Growth was broad-based across value tiers, though momentum has shifted from the lower end of the market to the middle amid improved borrowing capacity as interest rates fall. The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut rates three times this year and is expected to deliver two more reductions by May 2026, further supporting housing demand. Tight supply remains a key driver. Cotality reported that advertised stock levels are below average across all capital cities. Over the four weeks to 28 Septembe
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Australian dwelling approvals extend declines in August
Australia’s housing and accommodation crisis did not improve in August, with total dwelling approvals falling for a second successive month, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Australia's national statistical agency said the seasonally-adjusted 6.0% fall in dwelling approvals to 14,744 was the result of falls of 8.1% to 5,408 for private sector dwellings excluding houses and 2.6% for 9,027 for private sector houses. “The fall in private sector houses in August was driven by the two largest states, Victoria and New South Wales, which were down 8.3% and 6.2%, respectively,” the ABS head of construction statistics Daniel Rossi said in a media release. In contrast, Queensland rose 2.9% and Western Australia rose 1.7%. This followed a 10% seasonally adjusted fall in dwelling approvals in July, which was mainly the result of a 25.8% drop in private dwellings excluding houses. Despite this, total building approvals across Australia rose 8.6% to $17.09 billion as a 3.1% drop in residential building 3.1% to $9.17 billion (US$6.06 billion) was more than offset by a 26.1% leap in the value of non-residential building to $7.92 billion in August. The fall in residential building approvals was comprised of
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US pending home sales rise in August
Sales of previously owned homes in the United States improved solidly in August, with lower interest rates pulling buyers back into the market. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Pending Home Sales Report, pending home sales increased by 4% from the month prior and 3.8% year-over-year. There were gains in the Midwest (8.7%), South (3.1%) and West (5%) month-over-month, while they decreased in the Northeast by 11%. Year-over-year, there were increases across all regions. The Realtors Confidence Index survey for August also found that 19% of NAR members expect an increase in buyer traffic in the next three months, up from 16% last month and unchanged from a year ago. At the same time, 19% expect an increase in seller traffic, which is down from 21% last month and up from 18% the same time last year. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said lower mortgage rates are enabling more home buyers to go under contract. "In the Midwest, low mortgage rates combined with high levels of affordability are attracting more buyers compared to other regions,” Yun said. This comes as the rate on the popular 30-year mortgage rate is at an 11-month low. At the same time, the labour market is weakening with job

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US existing home sales stall as supply tightens
Sales of existing homes in the United States stalled in August as higher mortgage rates and shrinking supply weighed on the market, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Transactions came in at an annualised pace of 4 million units, seasonally adjusted, representing a 0.2% decline from the previous month but 1.8% higher than August 2024. Sales were strongest in the Midwest, while the Northeast recorded the weakest activity. "Home sales have been sluggish over the past few years due to elevated mortgage rates and limited inventory," said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. "However, mortgage rates are declining and more inventory is coming to the market, which should boost sales in the coming months." Because the data is based on closings, the August figures largely reflect contracts signed in June and July, when mortgage rates were about 50 basis points higher than they are today. Rates began easing sharply in September, which is not yet reflected in the report. The performance of the market varied sharply across price categories. Homes priced above US$1 million saw sales rise 8% from a year earlier, the strongest segment. At the opposite end, properties below $100,000 posted a drop of more
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US new home sales soar to 3yr high in August
New home sales in August soared 20% compared with July, reaching their highest level since January 2022, according to the United States Census. This also marks the largest one-month gain since August 2022 and was well above economists' forecasts. Analysts said the rise was propelled by price discounts and other sales incentives from builders, who are grappling with an oversupply of newly-built homes for sale. A separate survey from the National Association of Home Builders found that 39% of builders reported cutting prices in September, up from 37% in August and the highest percentage in the post-COVID period. Despite these cuts, the median price of a new home sold in August still rose 1.9% year-over-year to US$413,500. New homes also only account for around 14% of U.S. home sales. The figures are based on people shopping and signing deals in August, when the average 30-year fixed mortgage was higher than it is today. In August, the rate started at 6.62% and didn’t move much during the month, according to Mortgage News Daily. Interest rates have since begun a sharp decline in September, when they fell to a three-year low of 6.13% the day before the Federal Reserve cut its lending rate, causing it to move hi
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US housing starts, building permits plummet in August
United States single-family housing construction fell by 7.0% in August to its lowest level in over two years, amid large numbers of unsold homes. Single-family housing starts came in at 890,000 last month, according to the U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development. Building permits dropped by 3.7% to 1,312,000. Single-family building permits in August “were at a rate of 856,000; this is 2.2% below the revised July figure of 875,000,” the agencies said. “Authorisations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 403,000 in August.” Total privately-owned housing starts fell by 8.5% to 1,307,000. Privately-owned housing completions also declined by 8.4% in August to 1,608,000. “Housing remains in the doldrums, even as mortgage rates have fallen slightly at the start of September,” said KPMG senior economist Yelena Maleyev. While the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% today, “it will not be a silver bullet for the housing market,” said Maleyev. Unsold housing inventory has also remained high for around 18 months, and is approaching levels last seen in 2007. Active housing listings were 1,098,681 in August, dropping by around 4,100 from the previous month
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US builder sentiment steady, sees higher future sales
United States builder sentiment levels were unchanged in September, but future sales expectations rose ahead of a likely interest rate cut. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 32 last month, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. “NAHB expects the Fed to cut the federal funds rate at their meeting this week, which will help lower interest rates for builder and developer loans,” said NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz. “Moreover, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage average is down 23 basis points over the past four weeks to 6.35%, per Freddie Mac. This is the lowest level since mid-October of last year and a positive sign for future housing demand.” Builder sentiment has remained between 32 and 34 on the Housing Market Index since May, a relatively low reading. The future sales expectations index rose to 45, up two points from August and its highest reading since March. Traffic from prospective buyers fell by one point to 21. According to a Housing Market Index survey, 39% of builders said they had cut prices in September. This is an increase from 37% in August, and the highest rate of the post-pandemic period. The aver