While United States President Donald Trump is expected to attend a rally in Michigan today to celebrate 100 days in office with his diminishing party faithful, tumbling share markets and approval ratings have defined his tenure in the White House since 20 January.
Major U.S. indices moved higher overnight.
But since the inauguration, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P500 are now down 6.8% and 7.3% respectively.
This marks the worst start to a presidency for these indices since Richard Nixon started his second term as president in 1973.
Then there’s the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which has shed 11%, marking the worst start for a presidency since George W Bush’s first term in 2001.
However, it's the smallcap index, the Russell 2000, that took the biggest hit, down 13.2%, marking the worst first 100 days of any previous president.
This has seen investors seek refuge in safe-havens like gold, pushing it to multi-year highs, and into emerging market sovereign debt, despite rising default risks.
Major pivots on policy
Looking beyond share markets, Trump's first 100-day stint as president has been characterised by a dizzying amount of executive actions (200)-executive orders (142) and legal challenges (307) plus major pivots on policy.
However, it’s Trump's actions on immigration, raising tariffs to try and pay off America’s runaway debt, and attempting to broker a peace deal in the three-year Russia-Ukraine war that defined his first 100 sleeps in the White House.
Approval rating
If approval ratings are any litmus test of the success of Trump’s recent actions, his administration is struggling.
A recent poll from NPR/PBS News/Marist put Trump's approval rating among the lowest for any newly elected president in over 50 years.
According to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll, only 39% of American adults now approve of the way Trump is handling the job, while 55% disapprove - and even worse, 44% say they disapprove strongly.
Uncertainty and volatility
In a public dressing down of Trump’s White House tenure so far, Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group said that in just over three months, he has unleashed a new era of uncertainty, volatility, and rapid transformation that’s reshaping global markets in real time.
“Since Trump’s inauguration in January, his administration has moved aggressively to overhaul domestic institutions and international alliances,” said Green.
“Tariffs have been slapped on strategic imports, sparking furious retaliation from major economies. The effective US tariff rate now stands at its highest level in over a century.”
US dollar undermined
With the U.S. dollar having tumbled to a three-year low against major trading partners, Green noted that the greenback - the undisputed cornerstone of the global financial system - is now facing a crisis of confidence.
“Investors are beginning to question whether the US dollar can maintain its hegemonic status,” said Green.
“If Washington continues to weaponise its economic policies and undermine its own institutions, the shift away from the dollar could accelerate.”
Over the short-term Green expects Trump’s actions to result in even greater volatility, further dollar weakness, and continued pressure on multinational corporations that rely on global supply chains.
Over the long-term, Green foresees Trump’s policies fundamentally altering global capital markets.
As trade alliances splinter and political risk premiums rise, investors will, adds Green, be forced to reassess the primacy of U.S. assets — and the global reliance on the dollar itself.
Key milestones
Here’s a walk through the noteworthy actions taken by the Trump administration over the first 100 days:
- Day one: The US Capitol rioters of 'January 6', are released from prison.
- Day three: Troops are deployed to the Mexican border. The initial deployment of 1,500 troops has since swelled to close to 7,000 marines and soldiers.
- Day 11: Trump blames diversity initiatives on commercial aircraft and a Black Hawk helicopter colliding mid-air, killing all 67 people on board.
- Day 15: Foreign aid staff are told not to come to work.
- Day 16: Trump says the U.S. should take over Gaza, permanently displace the Palestinian population, and ultimately turn it into "the Riviera of the Middle East".
- Day 40: Trump and Vance berate the Ukrainian president and accuse him of showing insufficient gratitude to America.
- Day 53: A journalist is added to a group chat about military plans.
- Day 55: Hundreds of migrants are flown to a Salvadoran jail.
- Day 73: Trump unveils tariffs on 185 countries, including 147% tariffs on China.
- Day 85: Trump freezes billions in Harvard University funds.
- Day 93: Elon Musk says he'll step back from DOGE after sacking at least 119,659 government workers.
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