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US consumer confidence falls to 7mth low
United States consumer confidence fell in August to its lowest level in seven months as households became more pessimistic about the labour market and inflation, according to a survey released on Tuesday. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to 89.4 in August, the lowest reading since January, from a downwardly revised 90.2 in July. Economists had expected the index to remain at 90.2, compared with the originally reported July reading of 90.8. “Consumer confidence moderated slightly in August for a second consecutive month,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “The Expectations Index slipped further into negative territory, which was offset by a moderate rise in the Present Situation Index after declining in the past three months. Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were mildly positive. "Perceptions of the current labour market improved, reversing three months of moderate decline." The decline was driven by a 7.8% drop in the expectations index, which more than offset the first improvement in households' assessment of current conditions in four months. "Consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and the labour market ‌over ⁠the ne
Reports
US consumer sentiment deteriorates in August
United States consumer sentiment deteriorated sharply in early August as consumers grew increasingly concerned about the rising cost of living amid the conflict in the Middle East, according to a survey released on Friday. The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 51.0 in August from 55.2 in July, ending two consecutive months of improvement. Markets had expected the index to come in at 54.5. "Consumer sentiment fell about 8% this August, ending two consecutive months of improvement. While views of personal finances saw only minor declines, expected business conditions sank 11% for the short run and 17% for the long run," said Joanne Hsu, the director of the Surveys of Consumers. "Decreases in sentiment were seen across the political spectrum, with Republicans exhibiting the strongest month-to-month decline in August. Sentiment among Republicans is now 19% below readings just prior to the Iran conflict and the lowest since the 2024 election. "Although the early-month weakening in sentiment was pervasive across various demographic groups, notably large reductions were seen among older consumers, lower-income consumers, and those without a college degree. "These gro
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US retail sales record first decline in 9 months
United States retail sales fell in July for the first time in nine months as the boost from earlier tax refunds faded, signalling a slowdown in consumer spending. Retail sales declined 0.6% in July, according to the Commerce Department's Census Bureau, following an unrevised 0.2% increase in June. The drop was the first monthly decline since October and the largest in 14 months. Economists had expected retail sales, which largely measure goods purchases and are not adjusted for inflation, to edge up 0.1%. Despite the monthly weakness, retail sales were still 5.0% higher than a year earlier. With the consumer price index (CPI) rising 0.1% in July, economists said the decline in sales largely reflected a reduction in purchasing volumes. Although inflation eased during the month, prices remained significantly higher than a year ago, leaving consumers increasingly sensitive to rising living costs. The weakness was broad-based. Sales at nonstore retailers fell 2.2%, while receipts at motor vehicle and parts dealers dropped 1.8%. Electronics and appliance store sales declined 0.5%, while service station receipts fell 0.9%, reflecting lower fuel prices. Average U.S. petrol prices are currently hovering just above
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US budget deficit hits highest level since 2021
The United States budget deficit surged to its highest monthly level in more than five years in July, driven by rising Medicare costs and continued pressure from interest payments on the federal debt. The July deficit totalled US$432.3 billion, up around 48% from the same month a year earlier and the largest monthly shortfall since March 2021, according to the Treasury Department. The deficit for the first 10 months of the government’s fiscal year has now reached nearly $1.8 trillion, surpassing the total recorded over the same period in 2025. Medicare expenses rose sharply to $174 billion in July, up from $103 billion in June, bringing spending for the fiscal year to $955 billion. It was the government’s largest expenditure for the month, ahead of the $141 billion spent on Social Security and $104 billion in net interest on the national debt. Tariff refunds also weighed on the budget, costing $33 billion as the administration continues to issue rebates for levies that the Supreme Court ruled illegal. A further $99 billion was added to the July deficit because the first day of the month fell on a non-business day, accelerating various benefit payments as well as Supplemental Security Income and Medicare payments.
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US manufacturing PMI hits 4yr high
United States manufacturing activity climbed to its highest level in more than four years in July, supported by strong order growth and a rebound in factory employment, although the conflict in the Middle East continued to pressure supply chains and keep input costs elevated. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey showed responses remained largely negative, with the U.S.-Iran war dominating comments from businesses. Price volatility was also a major concern, with some economists expecting the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates as soon as next month. The ISM said its manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6 in July, the highest reading since May 2022, from 53.3 in June. Markets had expected the index to increase to 54.0. Economists welcomed the improvement in activity, particularly the return to manufacturing employment growth for the first time in 33 months. Manufacturing, which represents around 9.4% of the economy, has been supported by businesses bringing forward orders to avoid higher prices and shortages linked to the conflict. An artificial intelligence buildout has also supported activity in the technology sector, helping offset the impact of import tariffs on manufacturing. Wit

Reports
US GDP slows; imports mask domestic demand
United States economic growth slowed in the second quarter as a surge in imports widened the trade deficit, although strong consumer spending and business investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure highlighted the resilience of domestic demand. Data released by the Commerce Department on Thursday showed the moderation in gross domestic product (GDP) also reflected ongoing inventory drawdowns to meet strong consumer demand, as well as reduced spending linked to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which weighed on federal government expenditure. The figures suggest the economy absorbed the initial oil price shock caused by the Middle East conflict, though renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran continue to pose risks to growth in the second half of the year. Economists cautioned that consumer spending could come under pressure after the boost from President Donald Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" tax refunds faded. With average petrol prices climbing back above US$4 a gallon, households are also facing rising cost pressures. Income growth has moderated alongside a stable labour market, while the household savings rate fell to a four-year low of 2.7% in June, leaving consumers with less financial
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US consumer confidence weakens in July
United States consumer confidence unexpectedly weakened in July as Americans grew more cautious about the economy, with perceptions of the labour market remaining subdued despite easing concerns over energy prices and geopolitics. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 90.8 in July from an upwardly revised 92.2 in June. Economists had expected the index to edge higher to 92.3, following the previously reported June reading of 91.2. The weaker-than-expected result suggests households remain cautious about the economic outlook, with employment concerns continuing to weigh on sentiment. "Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to be mostly pessimistic in July," said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. “References to prices and oil and gas eased in frequency but remain elevated. Comments about food and grocery prices increased. "Mentions of war, geopolitics, and conflict eased during the sample period. However, as the fighting has reaccelerated quite recently there could be an increase in these mentions in the revised data for July. "Notably, references to jobs and unemployment picked up slightly.”
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US consumer sentiment rises as housing slows
United States consumer sentiment climbed to a five-month high in July, though the improvement may prove short-lived as renewed conflict in the Middle East pushes fuel prices higher and threatens to weigh on household confidence. The University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 54.4 in July, the highest reading since February, from a final reading of 49.5 in June. Markets had expected the index to increase to 51.0. The survey was conducted between 23 June and 13 July, with more than 70% of responses collected before the collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire last week, which sent oil prices to a one-month high and lifted petrol prices. "This month's rise in sentiment was pervasive across the population, seen across groups by age, income, wealth, and political party," said Joanne Hsu, the director of the Surveys of Consumers. "However, with prices remaining frustratingly high, consumers are hardly ebullient about the economy; sentiment is down 12% from a year ago. Thus, sentiment’s upward momentum may prove difficult to sustain if recent declines in gas prices continue to reverse course." Consumers' one-year inflation expectations eased to 4.2% in July from 4.6% in June, whil
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US retail sales rise; consumer spending holds
United States retail sales rose modestly in June as lower petrol prices weighed on service station receipts, but stronger vehicle purchases and robust online shopping signalled resilient consumer demand and prompted economists to lift second-quarter economic growth forecasts. Retail sales increased 0.2% in June, matching market expectations, after an upwardly revised 1.0% gain in May, according to the Commerce Department's Census Bureau. It marked the smallest monthly increase in five months, with the data reflecting spending on goods and not adjusted for inflation. Compared with a year earlier, retail sales climbed 6.7%, despite households continuing to grapple with higher prices stemming from import tariffs and, more recently, renewed conflict in the Middle East. Consumer spending has remained supported by higher-income households benefiting from rising equity markets, while generous tax refunds, healthy savings and bargain hunting have also helped sustain demand. A resilient labour market, characterised by steady wage growth amid limited hiring and layoffs, has further underpinned spending. Separate data from the Labor Department showed initial jobless claims fell by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 208,000 in t