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Falling US consumer confidence may tip Fed’s hand
United States consumer confidence weakened slightly in October to a six-month low, with mounting worry over near-term job availability giving the Federal Reserve more to think about when it decides whether to lower rates again on Wednesday. The Conference Board survey revealed yesterday that its consumer confidence index fell by 1 point to 94.6 in October from an upwardly revised September reading of 95.6. The decline in confidence was concentrated among consumers under the age of 35 and to a lesser extent those above 55 years, and improved among the 35 to 54 cohort. Meanwhile, the job market, a measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for their income, dipped by 2.9 points to 71.5, and remains well below the 80, a pivotal point that typically signals a recession ahead. The share of consumers who expected fewer jobs over the next six months increased to a six-month high of 27.8% from 25.7% in September. The survey's so-called labour market differential, derived from data on respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, widened to 9.4% from 8.7% last month. According to the Conference Board feedback to yesterday’s numbers, prices and inflation remained consumers’ biggest concern, while men
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US deficit falls by 2% to $1.78 trillion
The United States’ budget deficit declined 2% to US$1.78 trillion in the year to 30 September, as income taxes and tariff revenue increased but corporate taxes dipped. Individual income taxes represented the largest source of income at $2.66 billion, up from $2.43 billion the prior year, according to the Treasury Department, The Treasury reported $195 billion in income from tariffs, almost double the previous record. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) had similarly estimated a $1.8 trillion deficit last week. This is the deficit's first annual decline since 2022. “Increases in collections of individual income taxes and customs duties were partially offset by a decline in corporate tax receipts,” the CBO wrote. Corporate tax receipts dropped to $452.09 billion, from $529.87 billion one year ago. In September, the U.S. collected $298 billion in individual income taxes, $134 billion in social insurance, $62 billion in corporate taxes, and $30 billion in tariff duties. Spending rose by around 4% in the year to 30 September. Social Security led in spending, at $1,581 billion, with the Medicare health program at $997 billion. Interest on the national debt reached more than $1.2 trillion, a new record, and up almost
Reports
US consumer confidence hits five-month low in October
United States consumer confidence dropped to a five-month low in October amid a stagnant job market and high inflation, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary Surveys of Consumers report. The report’s consumer sentiment index was 55.0 in October, down 22.0% year-over-year and down 0.2% from September. “Improvements this month in current personal finances and year-ahead business conditions were offset by declines in expectations for future personal finances as well as current buying conditions for durables. Overall, consumers perceive very few changes in the outlook for the economy from last month,” said Surveys of Consumers director Joanne Hsu. “Pocketbook issues like high prices and weakening job prospects remain at the forefront of consumers’ minds. At this time, consumers do not expect meaningful improvement in these factors.” The consumer expectations index fell by 30.9% year-over-year to 51.2, and was down 1.0% from September. Its current economic conditions index was 61.0, falling 6.0% from one year ago, but rising 1.0% from September. The consumer sentiment, consumer expectations, and current economic conditions indexes were all highest among Republicans and lowest among Democrats, with indepen
Reports
Fed minutes reveal split over pace of 2025 rate cuts
Federal Reserve officials were largely in favour of lowering interest rates at their September meeting, though they remained divided over how many cuts would be appropriate by year-end, according to minutes released on Wednesday. The meeting summary showed near unanimity among policymakers that the central bank’s benchmark borrowing rate should be reduced amid signs of softening in the United States labour market. However, participants were split on whether to implement two or three total cuts in 2025, including the quarter-point reduction approved at the 16–17 September meeting. “In considering the outlook for monetary policy, almost all participants noted that, with the reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting, the Committee was well positioned to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments,” the minutes stated. “Participants expressed a range of views about the degree to which the current stance of monetary policy was restrictive and about the likely future path of policy,” the document added. “Most judged that it likely would be appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder of this year.” The minutes also noted that “the information available at the time
Reports
Westpac: Sentiment slumps to 6-month low
Australian consumer sentiment has fallen to its weakest level in six months, with rising concerns about inflation and the economic outlook dragging confidence lower, according to Westpac’s latest monthly survey. The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index declined 3.5% to 92.1 in October from 95.4 in September, marking a return to firmly pessimistic territory. Matthew Hassan, Westpac’s Head of Australian Macro-Forecasting, said: “At 92.1, the October Index read is now at firmly pessimistic levels, albeit still well above the very weak reads seen during the extended ‘cost-of-living’ crisis.” The report found that sentiment deteriorated across most categories, reversing gains made earlier this year when expectations of interest rate cuts briefly lifted household morale. Westpac said the renewed slump came as consumers became increasingly uneasy about the persistence of inflation, which has shown signs of firming again. “Consumers appear to have been rattled by recent updates on inflation. ‘Partial’ measures released over the last month suggest annual inflation has lifted back towards the top of the RBA’s 2–3% target range,” the bank said. The biggest declines were recorded in assessments of family fina

Reports
Australia's trade surplus falls as gold exports slump
Australia’s balance on trade plunged in the year ended August as exports fell and imports increased, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The trade deficit in the period was $4.787 billion, compared with a surplus of $1.944 billion a month earlier, as the surplus narrowed to $1,825 billion in August from $6.612 billion in July. Non-monetary gold shipments drove a 7.8% fall in exports to $41.858 billion, while consumption goods were behind a 3.2% increase in imports to $40.033 billion in August. Non-rural and general merchandise exports also fell in August, while rural goods exports increased. Goldman Sachs said the fall in the trade surplus in August was larger than expected, noting that non-monetary gold exports were volatile. Consumption goods imports rose 5.8%, driven by non-industrial transport equipment. Among minerals commodities, the major export reductions were in thermal coal to China and Japan, Australia's two largest trading partners, iron ore lumps and hard coking coal to South Korea and liquified natural gas, while the main export increases were in iron ore fines to China and hard coking coal to India.
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US job openings stagnate, consumer confidence drops
United States job openings remained unchanged in August, while consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level since April amid faltering economic conditions. There were 7.23 million job openings in the U.S. in August, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, an increase of 19,000. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped from 97.8 in August to 94.2 in September. “Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low,” said The Conference Board Senior Economist, Global Indicators Stephanie Guichard. “Consumers’ write-in responses showed that references to prices and inflation rose in September, regaining its top position as the main topic influencing consumers’ views of the economy.” Write-in responses also saw the most mentions of jobs and employment since August 2024. The number of hires in August was 5.1 million, a slight decline from July’s revised 5.2 million. Hiring rates remained largely stable across industries. Total separations, including quits and layoffs, were 5.1 million in August. In July, there wer
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US consumer spending, headline PCE up in August
United States consumer spending rose by 0.6% in August amid increases in transportation, food, and accommodation, while the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index grew by 0.3%. Personal spending was up by US$129.2 billion last month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Spending on transportation services grew by $13.9 billion, the largest amount of any sector. Growth in personal spending “reflected increases of $77.2 billion in spending on services and $52.0 billion in spending on goods”, the Bureau said. Food services and accommodations saw the second-highest increase, at $13.0 billion. Recreational goods and vehicles posted the third-highest growth, and the highest of any goods-related sector. U.S. personal income was up by $95.7 billion, or 0.4%. Disposable personal income also increased by 0.4%. “Personal saving was $1.06 trillion in August and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.6 percent,” wrote the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The personal consumption expenditures price index increased by 0.3% last month. It was up 2.7% year-over-year, compared with 2.6% in July, and above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Price levels e
Reports
US economy grows 3.8% in Q2, fastest in nearly 2yrs
The United States economy expanded at a faster pace than initially thought in the second quarter of 2025 amid resilient consumer demand, robust business investment, and a sharp narrowing of the trade deficit. Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annualised 3.8% rate in the April–June period, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said on Thursday in its third estimate, posting the strongest growth since the third quarter of 2023, and revised up from the previous 3.3% estimate. Markets had expected no change from the prior reading. The agency noted, “The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports.” Imports collapsed after a record surge in early 2025, when firms front-loaded purchases ahead of new duties, resulting in the largest trade deficit swing on record. The smaller deficit added 4.83 percentage points to growth, following a 4.68 percentage-point drag in the first quarter, when GDP contracted 0.6%. Consumer spending was stronger than previously estimated, rising at a 2.5% pac