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US retail sales jump 1.7% on fuel surge
United States retail sales recorded their strongest monthly increase in more than three years in March, driven largely by a sharp rise in fuel prices linked to the ongoing conflict in Iran. Data released by the U.S. Commerce Department showed retail sales climbed 1.7% in March, following an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in February. The reading marked the fastest pace of growth since early 2025 and provided the first comprehensive snapshot of consumer activity since the Iran war began. A significant portion of the increase was concentrated in fuel spending, as higher petrol prices pushed consumers to allocate more of their budgets to energy costs. Sales at petrol stations surged 15.5% over the month. Excluding fuel, retail sales rose a more modest 0.6%, supported by factors including tax refunds and seasonal spending linked to warmer weather. Despite pressure from higher energy costs, discretionary spending showed resilience. Department store sales rose 4.2%, while furniture and home furnishings stores recorded a 2.2% gain. Online retail activity increased by 1%, and consumer electronics and appliance stores posted a 0.9% rise. Miscellaneous retailers were the only category to register a decline during the mo
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Consumer confidence down heavily in April: Westpac
Australian consumer sentiment has fallen drastically over the last month, according to the latest Westpac consumer sentiment index. The index looks at five categories: assessments of family finances compared to a year ago, expectations for family finances and the economy over the next year, expectations for the economy over the next five years, and whether now is a good time to buy a major household item. From March to April, the index found that consumer sentiment fell from 91.6 to 80.1, or 12.5%, which marks the largest fall since the COVID pandemic. The plummet has been attributed to skyrocketing fuel prices and growing interest rates. Average fuel pump prices reached $2.40/litre in the first week of April, an increase of 37 cents from the March survey and 77 cents compared to the same time in February. Fears of job loss were also at the highest point in five and a half years. “Australian consumers are being hit by another ‘cost of living’ shock. The spike in fuel prices following the U.S.–Israel war on Iran and a further 25bp interest rate increase are again putting finances under intense pressure,” said Matthew Hassan, Head of Australian Macro-Forecasting. “At 80, the Index is back near historical lows, a
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Economic outlook darkens for US consumers
Consumer sentiment in the United States has fallen to its lowest level on record, as households brace for rising prices linked to the Iran war and a surge in energy costs, according to closely watched survey data released Friday. The preliminary April reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to 47.6, a 10.7% decline from March and the weakest result in the survey’s more than 70-year history, based on data published by the University of Michigan. The sharp deterioration coincided with a rapid increase in inflation expectations and followed weeks of volatility tied to disruptions in global energy markets. The figures underpin growing concern that the Iran war is feeding through to domestic prices, threatening consumer spending and broader economic stability. Survey director Joanne Hsu said responses indicated “many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavourable changes to the economy”, with sentiment weakening across all demographic groups, including age, income and political affiliation. Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months jumped to 4.8%, up from 3.8% in March - the largest monthly increase since April 2025. Longer-term expectations also edged higher, with the fiv
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US Q4 GDP revised down to 0.5%
United States economic growth slowed more than previously estimated in the fourth quarter, as weaker business investment and inventory accumulation weighed on activity, according to revised government data. The gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annualised rate of 0.5%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its third estimate. The figure marked a downgrade from the previously reported 0.7% pace and a sharp revision from the initial estimate of 1.4%. Economists had expected the growth rate to remain unrevised at 0.7%. The downward adjustment largely reflected weaker business spending, particularly on intellectual property products, as well as a softer contribution from inventories. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, was also revised lower, rising at a 1.9% pace compared with the previously reported 2.0%. "The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased." The release further noted: "From an industry perspective, the increase in re
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US services sector growth slows; input prices surge
United States services sector growth slowed in March, while input prices surged amid the Iran war. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Services PMI was 54%, declining from 56.1% in February. This is also below Reuters-polled economists’ forecast of 54.9%. “March’s Services PMI® features the third month in a row with an increase in the 12-month PMI® average, up 0.6 percentage point from 51.7 percent in December 2025 to 52.3 percent. However, six of the 10 subindexes decreased month-over-month,” said ISM services business survey committee chair Steve Miller. The ISM’s index measuring input prices surged 7.7 percentage points to 70.7%, its highest reading since 2022 and its largest percentage increase in over 13 years. The index has exceeded 60% for 16 consecutive months. According to survey respondents, the Iran war has disrupted shipping for the construction sector, while rising fuel prices have significantly raised operational costs for the airline industry. “Companies across many industries reported seeing higher gas and diesel pricing, and inventories of multiple goods increased to withstand supply chain disruptions or short-term oil price impacts. Such construction products as lumber, copper and steel wer

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US manufacturing PMI up in March; deliveries slow
United States manufacturing activity increased in March, but supplier deliveries slowed amid the Iran war. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI was 52.7% in March, rising 0.3 percentage points from February. “In March, U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory, growing at a slightly faster pace than the month before,” said ISM manufacturing business survey committee chair Susan Spence. “This month also marks the first report with panelists citing the Iran war as a new impact to their business, along with ongoing uncertainty with U.S. economic policy, despite the recent Supreme Court ruling striking down International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs.” The supplier deliveries index slowed for a fourth consecutive month. The index was up 3.8 percentage points to 58.9%, with readings above 50% indicating slower deliveries. ISM’s inventories index fell by 1.7 percentage points to 47.1%, meanwhile. The production index grew for a fifth consecutive month, increasing 1.6 percentage points to 53.5%. Prices also rose, with the prices index climbing 7.8 percentage points to 78.3 . This index has surged 19.3 percentage points in the last two months, and is now at its hig
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US consumer confidence ticks up despite Iran war
Consumer confidence in the United States has grown slightly in March, despite pessimism on the labour market and anticipated higher inflation over the next year amid surging gasoline prices. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index unexpectedly edged up 0.8 points to 91.8 points in March. “Consumer confidence ticked up again in March, as a modest improvement in consumers’ views of current conditions outweighed a slight downshift in expectations for the future,” The Conference Board chief economist Dana M Peterson said. This is higher than the median estimate of 87.9 points from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The present situation index also rose 4.6 points to 123.3. However, the expectations index, which measures consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, labour, and market conditions, declined by 1.7 points to 70.9. Peterson also said that consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism. “Comments about prices and the cost of goods suggest that the cost of living remained at the top of consumers’ minds,” she said. “As the war in Iran overlapped significantly with the survey sample period, comments about oil/gas and war/conflict spiked, whi
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EU economic and consumer confidence falls
Economic and consumer confidence have deteriorated in Europe in March as the war in Iran stretches into its fifth week. According to preliminary data from the European Commission, economic sentiment in the EU dropped 1.5 points to 96.7 and declined in the euro area by 1.6 points to 96.6. The figures also measure economic sentiment across five sectors of the European economy and reveal that employment expectations are under pressure in the EU and the eurozone. In the wake of the Middle East war, employers in retail trade, services and industry sectors are adjusting their employment plans. This follows the deterioration seen in February, with the Commission warning that the latest data points showed a “marked deterioration of economic sentiment in March”, which had driven both economic sentiment and employment expectations “away from their long-term average of 100.”Credit: European CommissionConsumer confidence also fell to its lowest level in over two years, “driven by a dramatic decline in consumers’ expectations for the overall economic situation in their country.” “Consumers also became markedly more pessimistic about their household’s future financial situation and less prone to make major purchases over the next
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US consumer sentiment reaches 3mth low
United States consumer sentiment has reached a three-month low in March, as the war in the Middle East flares up inflation worries and casts a shadow over the economic outlook. According to research from the University of Michigan, the Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 53.3 in March 2026, down from 56.6 in February and below last March’s 57. The research also found that sentiment decreased across all ages and political parties. “At this time, consumers appear to believe that any negative economic consequences of the Iran conflict are likely to be limited primarily to the short run,” University of Michigan economist and director of surveys Joanne Hsu said. “These views are subject to change; however, if the conflict becomes protracted or if higher energy prices lead to meaningful, sustained increases in the prices consumers pay.” One of the major concerns is the price of petrol, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts oil shipments, driving oil prices up by more than 30%. Retail gasoline prices have jumped US$1 to an average of $3.98 per gallon. According to the University of Michigan, gas price expectations surged about fivefold from last month, reaching their highest reading since 22 June. “Long-run ga