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US services growth eases in June as hiring rebounds
United States services sector activity slowed modestly in June as a surge in business orders linked to the Middle East conflict faded, though employment returned to growth after three consecutive months of contraction, signalling continued resilience in the labour market. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday its Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) edged down to 54.0 in June from 54.5 in May. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. One of the report's strongest developments was the Employment Index, which expanded for the first time in four months. Some survey respondents attributed stronger hiring to increased tourism associated with international soccer events, boosting demand for air travel, accommodation and hospitality. The fastest-growing services industry in June was Arts, Entertainment & Recreation (AE&R). Since the impact of big events is limited because such industries as AE&R, Accommodation & Food Services and Transportation & Warehousing are small segments of sector gross domestic product (GDP), the World Cup “was not a driver, but it was certainly welcome”, Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair o
Reports
US consumer sentiment edges higher in June
United States consumer sentiment improved modestly in June as easing tensions between the United States and Iran and lower fuel prices helped lift confidence, although households continued to cite the high cost of living as their biggest financial concern. The latest University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers showed the Consumer Sentiment Index rose to a final reading of 49.5 in June, up from 44.8 in May and slightly above the preliminary reading of 48.9 released earlier in the month. The result marked the first improvement after sentiment declined following the outbreak of conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran in February. However, the reading fell just short of market expectations for a final figure of 50.0. The improvement was broad-based, with gains recorded across income groups, wealth levels and political affiliations. "The cost of living remains at the forefront of consumers' minds," said Joanne Hsu, the director of the Surveys of Consumers. "For the third straight month, over half of consumers spontaneously mentioned that high prices are weighing down their personal finances." Hsu noted that the strong performance of equity markets has benefited household finances, although the gains have be
Reports
US core inflation climbs in May; GDP revised higher
The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure accelerated to its highest annual rate since 2023 in May, while the United States economy expanded much faster than previously estimated during the first quarter, reinforcing expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period. Data released by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis on Thursday showed the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% in May, lifting the annual inflation rate to 3.4%. The annual reading marked the highest level since October 2023. The headline PCE index rose 0.4% during the month, taking annual inflation to 4.1%, the strongest reading since April 2023. The annual figure was in line with market expectations, while the monthly increase was 0.1 percentage point below forecasts.Credit: U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisAlthough Federal Reserve policymakers monitor both headline and core inflation, they place greater emphasis on the core measure as an indicator of underlying price pressures. This year's inflation acceleration has been driven largely by higher energy prices linked to the Iran conflict, with those cost increases increasingly filteri
Reports
US retail sales rise 0.9% in May despite war shock
United States retail sales rose more than expected in May amid continued resilience in the American economy, even as households faced higher fuel prices and persistent inflationary pressures linked to the ongoing conflict involving Iran. The Commerce Department reported that retail sales increased 0.9% in May, following a downwardly revised 0.4% gain in April. Markets had expected a more modest 0.5% rise. Sales advanced 6.9% compared with a year earlier, marking a fourth consecutive month of gains and adding to recent evidence of solid job growth and sustained household spending. The data comes as the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in the 3.50% to 3.75% range at its latest meeting, while signalling that borrowing costs may need to rise further to contain inflation pressures linked to higher energy prices and geopolitical instability. The central bank described economic activity as “expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty” stemming from the Middle East conflict. Motor vehicle purchases helped drive the gains, while gasoline prices also played a significant role in lifting nominal spending. Service station receipts rose 3.4% in May, contributing to the overall increase in retail activit
Reports
US factory output stalls despite AI demand
United States factory production unexpectedly stalled in May following several months of gains, though strong demand linked to artificial intelligence investment continued to provide support for the manufacturing sector amid tariffs and lingering effects from recent energy market disruptions. Federal Reserve data released on Monday showed manufacturing output was unchanged in May after an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in April. Production had also risen 0.2% in March and 0.7% in February. Industrial production ticked up 0.1%, following a 0.9% rise in April. Compared with a year earlier, total industrial output rose 1.7%. Markets had expected factory output to increase 0.2% in May, while industrial production was expected to rise 0.3%. According to Reuters, some economists suggested earlier increases in production reflected businesses building inventories in anticipation of shortages and higher costs associated with the Middle East conflict. While that boost appears to have faded, rising corporate spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure and business investment incentives are helping to cushion the sector. Manufacturing, which accounts for 9.4% of the U.S. economy, remained stronger than a year earlier,

Reports
US consumer sentiment improves as fuel prices fall
Consumer sentiment in the United States improved modestly in June as easing petrol prices provided relief to households, though confidence remains near historic lows amid persistent inflation concerns. Data released on Friday by the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers showed lower-income households drove much of the improvement in sentiment, reflecting the disproportionate impact of fuel costs on household budgets. The University's Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 48.9 in June from a record low of 44.8 in May. Markets had expected a smaller increase to 46.0. The improvement was broad-based, with gains recorded across age groups, education levels and political affiliations. Even with the latest increase, consumer sentiment remains below levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, including periods of heightened inflation, and below readings recorded last year when President Donald Trump introduced a new round of tariffs. "Lower-income consumers exhibited a particularly strong sentiment increase, consistent with the fact that gasoline comprises a larger share of their budgets," said Joanne Hsu, the director of the Surveys of Consumers. “Even with June’s early gains, however, views of the economy are still r
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NY Fed: Household financial outlook deteriorates
American households became increasingly concerned about their financial situation in May, with the proportion reporting deteriorating conditions reaching its highest level in nearly four years, according to the latest survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The central bank's monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations, released on Monday (Tuesday AEST), showed that while inflation expectations remained largely stable, perceptions of current and future financial well-being continued to weaken. The report noted: “Perceptions about households’ current financial situation compared to a year ago deteriorated, with a larger share of households reporting a worse financial situation, marking the highest reading since January 2023 ... The net share of households expecting a better versus worse financial situation in one year is at its lowest level since October 2022.” The survey was conducted against a backdrop of rising concern over the inflationary consequences of the conflict involving Iran, which has pushed energy prices higher and raised questions about the outlook for inflation. Several Federal Reserve policymakers have recently expressed concern that a prolonged conflict could lift inflation expectations among con
Reports
US ISM services PMI accelerates; costs surge
The United States services sector expanded at a faster pace in May as businesses increased orders and replenished inventories in anticipation of supply shortages and higher costs linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Wednesday showed the non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 54.5 in May from 53.6 in April, exceeding market expectations of 53.8. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. The stronger reading reflected growing business activity as companies moved to secure supplies amid concerns that disruptions caused by the U.S.-Israel war with Iran could further strain commodity markets and increase costs across the economy. The conflict has significantly disrupted supplies of key commodities and contributed to higher prices for energy, aluminium and fertilisers, adding to inflationary pressures already evident throughout the economy. That trend was reinforced by the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book report, which noted that prices increased at a "moderate to strong pace overall" during May. The report added that "energy-related c
Reports
Australian economy grows 0.3% in Q1 2026
Australia's economy grew at a slower-than-expected pace in the March quarter, with subdued household spending, weaker government consumption and weather-related disruptions weighing on activity despite strong investment in data centre infrastructure. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that gross domestic product rose 0.3% during the March quarter and 2.5% over the year, marking the softest quarterly growth rate since the June quarter of 2024. Markets had expected quarterly growth of 0.5% and annual growth of 2.7%. ABS head of National Accounts Grace Kim said: "Economic growth slowed in the March quarter, with modest household and public sector expenditure as well as cyclone disruptions to mining and export activities."Credit: Australian Bureau of StatisticsThe result reflected a mixed economic backdrop in which strong private-sector investment offset weakness in other areas of the economy. Investment in machinery and equipment for data centres was the largest contributor to growth during the quarter. However, because much of the equipment was imported, the positive contribution to economic activity was partially offset by a deterioration in net trade. Nominal GDP rose 0.6% during the quarter, while t