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US ISM manufacturing PMI hits 4yr high in May
United States manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in four years in May, exceeding expectations as businesses increased orders and production, though rising costs and mounting supply chain disruptions linked to the conflict with Iran threatened to undermine the sector's recovery. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) registered 54.0 in May, up from 52.7 in April and above market expectations for a reading of 53.0. It marked the strongest reading since May 2022, when the index stood at 55.9. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing activity. The sector accounts for approximately 9.4% of the U.S. economy. The latest data signalled that manufacturing has now expanded for five consecutive months, recovering after a prolonged period of weakness that followed President Donald Trump's sweeping import tariffs. However, survey respondents warned that the now four-month-old U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, which has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, is creating significant pressure on supply chains and increasing input costs across a range of industries. Businesses in sectors ranging from transportation equipment to fabricated metal p
Reports
US consumer sentiment sinks to new low
United States consumer sentiment fell to a fresh record low in May as households grew increasingly concerned that the conflict involving Iran and elevated oil prices would drive inflation higher and weigh on the broader economy. The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers said Friday that its consumer sentiment index declined to 44.8 from a preliminary reading of 48.2 and was sharply lower than the 49.8 level recorded at the end of April. The latest result marked the third straight monthly decline in sentiment and pushed the index below the previous historic low reached in June 2022, when surging inflation and fuel costs severely pressured household confidence. “Consumer sentiment fell for the third straight month as supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to boost gasoline prices. Sentiment is now just below the previous historical trough seen in June 2022,” Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said in a statement. “Critically, consumers appear worried that inflation will increase and proliferate beyond fuel prices, even in the long run.” The deterioration in confidence comes as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt energy markets and keep oil prices elevated, intensifyi
Reports
US industrial production up 0.7% to 14mth high
United States industrial production rose by the most in more than a year in April, signalling growing momentum in the sector despite mounting cost pressures linked to tariffs and the Iran conflict. Output at factories, mines and utilities increased 0.7% in April, following a revised 0.3% decline in March, according to Federal Reserve data released Friday. The result exceeded market expectations for a 0.3% increase. Manufacturing output, which accounts for around three-quarters of total industrial production, rose 0.6% during the month. Mining output edged lower, while utilities output rebounded. The data suggested the manufacturing sector remained resilient even as tariffs and the Iran war pushed up input costs, aided by tax cuts and strong demand linked to the expansion of data centres. However, some economists warned that part of the increase may reflect businesses stockpiling goods ahead of potential further price rises. ANZ analysts said: "Production has been trending higher since the start of this year, seemingly reinforced by front-loading of demand ahead of potential supply-chain disruption ... Outside of AI, business investment is weak, while the consumption outlook is facing headwinds. "On that basis,
Reports
US retail sales up 0.5%; inflation pressures build
United States retail sales increased for a third consecutive month in April, supported by larger tax refunds and strong stock market gains, although economists warned rising inflation pressures could weaken consumer spending later in the quarter. Data released on Thursday showed part of the increase in spending reflected higher prices following the escalation of the U.S.-Israel conflict involving Iran, which has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and lifted energy and commodity costs globally. According to the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau, retail sales rose 0.5% in April following a downwardly revised 1.6% increase in March. The result matched market expectations and followed a previously reported 1.7% rise in March. The figures also highlighted what economists describe as a “K-shaped” economy, where wealthier households continue to spend comfortably while lower-income consumers face growing financial strain. The latest retail sales, inflation and labour market data reinforced expectations in financial markets that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep its benchmark interest rate within the 3.50% to 3.75% range into next year. ANZ analysts said in a note to clients: "Given high inflation, real or
Reports
Global debt breaks new record of nearly US$353tn
Global debt has reached record levels of close to US$353 trillion (A$487.5 trillion), according to a new report by the Institute of International Finance. The staggering figure was recorded at the end of March, by the IIF's quarterly Global Debt Monitor, which found that international investors were diversifying away from the United States. Instead, it found a growing demand for both Japanese and European government bonds, which could push U.S. government debt onto an “unsustainable path”. This debt was being mostly driven by government borrowing, said Emre Tiftik, director at the IIF for Global Markets and Policy, during a webinar ⁠to discuss the report. "This highlights that there are some efforts by international investors diversifying away from U.S. Treasuries," said Tiftik. Looking towards longer-term debt levels, the IIF predicted that pressure factors, such as defence spending increases, cybersecurity and AI expenditure and aging populations, would be driving up both government and corporate debts. "The recent conflict in the Middle East is set to further intensify some of these pressures," Tiftik added.

Reports
US consumer sentiment falls to new low in May
United States consumer sentiment has fallen to a record low in May as gas prices continue to surge amid the Iran war. According to the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers, the consumer sentiment index dropped 3.2% month-over-month and 7.7% year-over-year to 48.2. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 49.7. Consumer expectations were up 0.8% month-over-month to 48.5, while current conditions were down 9% to 47.8. Survey of Consumers director Joanne Hsu said this was driven by cost-of-living pressures and increases in gas prices. “About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices and about 30% mentioned tariffs,” she said. “Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall.” Hsu said year-ahead inflation expectations softened from 4.7% last month to 4.5% this month. This still substantially exceeds the 3.4% reading seen in February, before the start of the war. The survey was released just after the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that job creation as stronger than expected in April, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 115,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%.
Reports
US inflation jumps as growth falls short in March
United States inflation accelerated in March while economic growth undershot expectations, as a surge in energy prices linked to the Iran conflict complicated the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and squeezed household budgets. Data released yesterday by the U.S Commerce Department showed the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — rose 0.3% for the month, lifting the annual rate to 3.2%, in line with market forecasts. Headline inflation, which includes food and energy, increased 0.7% in March, pushing the annual rate to 3.5%, the highest since mid-2023. Driven largely by energy costs, the figures underscore a renewed inflationary impulse. Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annualised rate of 2% in the first quarter, up from 0.5% in late 2025 but below the 2.2% expected by economists, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The inflation spike coincides with a sharp rise in fuel prices, with data from the U.S Energy Information Administration showing that average petrol prices climbed more than 24% in March, with pump prices exceeding US$4 a gallon for the first time in nearly four years, reflecting supply disruptions tied to the Iran war.
Reports
CB consumer confidence edges higher in April
United States consumer confidence rose modestly in April, reaching its highest level so far this year as improved sentiment around the labour market offset persistent concerns about inflation and energy prices. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased by 0.6 points to 92.8, up from a revised 92.2 in March. The reading surpassed market expectations of 89, indicating resilience in household sentiment despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The improvement was driven largely by stronger consumer expectations for employment prospects and income growth. The Conference Board noted that the survey period coincided with a temporary two-week ceasefire in the U.S. conflict with Iran, which has since been extended indefinitely, providing a degree of short-term stability. “Consumer confidence edged up in April but was overall little changed, despite material concern about rising gasoline prices as the war in the Middle East prompted a surge in Brent crude oil prices,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “Consumer appraisals of current and expected business conditions declined moderately compared to last month. This was offset by modest improvements in consumers’ perceptions of the labo
Reports
US consumer sentiment falls to all time low
United States consumer sentiment has reached an almost four year low, after falling for a second consecutive month. Declines in sentiment reached levels comparable to its mid-2022 trough and were seen across political party, income, age and education, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Earlier in the month, the index sat at 47.6, but this rose slightly to 49.8 after a two-week ceasefire was announced and gas prices ticked slightly lower; however, this still marks an all-time low. Expected business conditions declined for both the short and long run, nearly matching year-ago readings when the reciprocal tariff regime was implemented. “The Iran conflict appears to be passing through to consumer views primarily through effects on prices, particularly gas and energy prices stemming from disruptions to shipping,” University of Michigan director of surveys, Joanne Hsu, said. “At this time, consumers do not foresee relief from high prices in the near future. “In fact, consumers expect them to worsen before they improve.” The national average retail gasoline price has hovered above $4 a gallon this month, with diesel well above $5 a gallon, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administrati