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US retail sales rise 0.9% in May despite war shock
United States retail sales rose more than expected in May amid continued resilience in the American economy, even as households faced higher fuel prices and persistent inflationary pressures linked to the ongoing conflict involving Iran. The Commerce Department reported that retail sales increased 0.9% in May, following a downwardly revised 0.4% gain in April. Markets had expected a more modest 0.5% rise. Sales advanced 6.9% compared with a year earlier, marking a fourth consecutive month of gains and adding to recent evidence of solid job growth and sustained household spending. The data comes as the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in the 3.50% to 3.75% range at its latest meeting, while signalling that borrowing costs may need to rise further to contain inflation pressures linked to higher energy prices and geopolitical instability. The central bank described economic activity as “expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty” stemming from the Middle East conflict. Motor vehicle purchases helped drive the gains, while gasoline prices also played a significant role in lifting nominal spending. Service station receipts rose 3.4% in May, contributing to the overall increase in retail activit
Reports
US factory output stalls despite AI demand
United States factory production unexpectedly stalled in May following several months of gains, though strong demand linked to artificial intelligence investment continued to provide support for the manufacturing sector amid tariffs and lingering effects from recent energy market disruptions. Federal Reserve data released on Monday showed manufacturing output was unchanged in May after an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in April. Production had also risen 0.2% in March and 0.7% in February. Industrial production ticked up 0.1%, following a 0.9% rise in April. Compared with a year earlier, total industrial output rose 1.7%. Markets had expected factory output to increase 0.2% in May, while industrial production was expected to rise 0.3%. According to Reuters, some economists suggested earlier increases in production reflected businesses building inventories in anticipation of shortages and higher costs associated with the Middle East conflict. While that boost appears to have faded, rising corporate spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure and business investment incentives are helping to cushion the sector. Manufacturing, which accounts for 9.4% of the U.S. economy, remained stronger than a year earlier,
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US consumer sentiment improves as fuel prices fall
Consumer sentiment in the United States improved modestly in June as easing petrol prices provided relief to households, though confidence remains near historic lows amid persistent inflation concerns. Data released on Friday by the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers showed lower-income households drove much of the improvement in sentiment, reflecting the disproportionate impact of fuel costs on household budgets. The University's Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 48.9 in June from a record low of 44.8 in May. Markets had expected a smaller increase to 46.0. The improvement was broad-based, with gains recorded across age groups, education levels and political affiliations. Even with the latest increase, consumer sentiment remains below levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, including periods of heightened inflation, and below readings recorded last year when President Donald Trump introduced a new round of tariffs. "Lower-income consumers exhibited a particularly strong sentiment increase, consistent with the fact that gasoline comprises a larger share of their budgets," said Joanne Hsu, the director of the Surveys of Consumers. “Even with June’s early gains, however, views of the economy are still r
Reports
NY Fed: Household financial outlook deteriorates
American households became increasingly concerned about their financial situation in May, with the proportion reporting deteriorating conditions reaching its highest level in nearly four years, according to the latest survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The central bank's monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations, released on Monday (Tuesday AEST), showed that while inflation expectations remained largely stable, perceptions of current and future financial well-being continued to weaken. The report noted: “Perceptions about households’ current financial situation compared to a year ago deteriorated, with a larger share of households reporting a worse financial situation, marking the highest reading since January 2023 ... The net share of households expecting a better versus worse financial situation in one year is at its lowest level since October 2022.” The survey was conducted against a backdrop of rising concern over the inflationary consequences of the conflict involving Iran, which has pushed energy prices higher and raised questions about the outlook for inflation. Several Federal Reserve policymakers have recently expressed concern that a prolonged conflict could lift inflation expectations among con
Reports
US ISM services PMI accelerates; costs surge
The United States services sector expanded at a faster pace in May as businesses increased orders and replenished inventories in anticipation of supply shortages and higher costs linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Wednesday showed the non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 54.5 in May from 53.6 in April, exceeding market expectations of 53.8. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. The stronger reading reflected growing business activity as companies moved to secure supplies amid concerns that disruptions caused by the U.S.-Israel war with Iran could further strain commodity markets and increase costs across the economy. The conflict has significantly disrupted supplies of key commodities and contributed to higher prices for energy, aluminium and fertilisers, adding to inflationary pressures already evident throughout the economy. That trend was reinforced by the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book report, which noted that prices increased at a "moderate to strong pace overall" during May. The report added that "energy-related c

Reports
Australian economy grows 0.3% in Q1 2026
Australia's economy grew at a slower-than-expected pace in the March quarter, with subdued household spending, weaker government consumption and weather-related disruptions weighing on activity despite strong investment in data centre infrastructure. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that gross domestic product rose 0.3% during the March quarter and 2.5% over the year, marking the softest quarterly growth rate since the June quarter of 2024. Markets had expected quarterly growth of 0.5% and annual growth of 2.7%. ABS head of National Accounts Grace Kim said: "Economic growth slowed in the March quarter, with modest household and public sector expenditure as well as cyclone disruptions to mining and export activities."Credit: Australian Bureau of StatisticsThe result reflected a mixed economic backdrop in which strong private-sector investment offset weakness in other areas of the economy. Investment in machinery and equipment for data centres was the largest contributor to growth during the quarter. However, because much of the equipment was imported, the positive contribution to economic activity was partially offset by a deterioration in net trade. Nominal GDP rose 0.6% during the quarter, while t
Reports
US ISM manufacturing PMI hits 4yr high in May
United States manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in four years in May, exceeding expectations as businesses increased orders and production, though rising costs and mounting supply chain disruptions linked to the conflict with Iran threatened to undermine the sector's recovery. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) registered 54.0 in May, up from 52.7 in April and above market expectations for a reading of 53.0. It marked the strongest reading since May 2022, when the index stood at 55.9. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing activity. The sector accounts for approximately 9.4% of the U.S. economy. The latest data signalled that manufacturing has now expanded for five consecutive months, recovering after a prolonged period of weakness that followed President Donald Trump's sweeping import tariffs. However, survey respondents warned that the now four-month-old U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, which has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, is creating significant pressure on supply chains and increasing input costs across a range of industries. Businesses in sectors ranging from transportation equipment to fabricated metal p
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US consumer sentiment sinks to new low
United States consumer sentiment fell to a fresh record low in May as households grew increasingly concerned that the conflict involving Iran and elevated oil prices would drive inflation higher and weigh on the broader economy. The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers said Friday that its consumer sentiment index declined to 44.8 from a preliminary reading of 48.2 and was sharply lower than the 49.8 level recorded at the end of April. The latest result marked the third straight monthly decline in sentiment and pushed the index below the previous historic low reached in June 2022, when surging inflation and fuel costs severely pressured household confidence. “Consumer sentiment fell for the third straight month as supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to boost gasoline prices. Sentiment is now just below the previous historical trough seen in June 2022,” Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said in a statement. “Critically, consumers appear worried that inflation will increase and proliferate beyond fuel prices, even in the long run.” The deterioration in confidence comes as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt energy markets and keep oil prices elevated, intensifyi
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US industrial production up 0.7% to 14mth high
United States industrial production rose by the most in more than a year in April, signalling growing momentum in the sector despite mounting cost pressures linked to tariffs and the Iran conflict. Output at factories, mines and utilities increased 0.7% in April, following a revised 0.3% decline in March, according to Federal Reserve data released Friday. The result exceeded market expectations for a 0.3% increase. Manufacturing output, which accounts for around three-quarters of total industrial production, rose 0.6% during the month. Mining output edged lower, while utilities output rebounded. The data suggested the manufacturing sector remained resilient even as tariffs and the Iran war pushed up input costs, aided by tax cuts and strong demand linked to the expansion of data centres. However, some economists warned that part of the increase may reflect businesses stockpiling goods ahead of potential further price rises. ANZ analysts said: "Production has been trending higher since the start of this year, seemingly reinforced by front-loading of demand ahead of potential supply-chain disruption ... Outside of AI, business investment is weak, while the consumption outlook is facing headwinds. "On that basis,