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NY Fed: Americans bear brunt of Trump tariff surge
Americans are absorbing the overwhelming share of President Donald Trump’s latest surge in import tariffs, according to new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, challenging recent claims that foreign exporters are footing the bill. In a report released on Thursday, the New York Fed said 90% of the tariffs imposed by the president on imported goods are being borne by American consumers and businesses. The findings directly counter the Trump administration’s longstanding argument that the levies are largely paid by overseas producers. The study assessed the economic impact of tariffs last year, when the average rate of import taxes rose sharply from 2.6% to 13%. The report noted that tariff levels fluctuated throughout the year, peaking in April and May when Trump lifted tariffs on Chinese goods to 125% before reducing them to 113%. The authors based their analysis on evidence from Trump’s first term in office. When faced with comparable duties, the report stated that “our past work found that foreign exporters did not lower their prices at all, so the full incidence of the tariffs was borne by the U.S. That is, there was 100% pass-through from tariffs into import prices”. Between January and August
Reports
US consumer fatigue shows up in December data
After carrying the economy on its shoulders for most of the year, American shoppers hit the brakes in December, the most important month on the retail calendar. The official count showed retail sales unchanged from November, after a solid rise the month before. Markets were expecting a rise of 0.4%, but instead, households chose caution. Strip out a volatile like category cars, and the picture barely improves. The message was clear: the holiday rush ran out of steam. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, so when shoppers pause, the entire system feels it. December’s spending didn’t just stall; it fell behind rising prices. Inflation lifted the cost of living again, meaning households bought less in real terms even if the dollars spent looked steady on paper. Retail data isn’t adjusted for inflation, so flat sales in a rising-price environment quietly translate into shrinking volumes. This explains why December felt weaker than it first appeared. Consumers were paying more and getting less, and the gap between wages and prices remains narrow, especially for households without savings buffers or share portfolios to lean on. The divide between those who
Reports
US consumer sentiment rises slightly in early Feb
United States consumer sentiment rose slightly to reach a six-month high in early February, driven by consumers with large stock portfolios. The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers’ index of consumer sentiment was 57.3, up from 56.4 in January but down from 64.7 year-over-year. This was better than forecasts, with Reuters-polled economists predicting a drop to 55.0. “Sentiment surged for consumers with the largest stock portfolios, while it stagnated and remained at dismal levels for consumers without stock holdings,” wrote University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers director Joanne Hsu. “While sentiment is currently the highest since August 2025, recent monthly increases have been small—well under the margin of error—and the overall level of sentiment remains very low from a historical perspective. Concerns about the erosion of personal finances from high prices and elevated risk of job loss continue to be widespread.” The index gauging respondents’ current economic conditions was 58.3, increasing from 55.4 but remaining well below the 65.7 seen one year ago. The consumer expectations index fell to 56.6 from January’s 57.0, and has seen the largest decline from February 2025’s 64.0. Expectations for infl
Reports
Global manufacturing output increased in January
Global manufacturing output increased in January, according to S&P Global reports, though new orders declined in the United States and the Eurozone. China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to its highest level since October, while the United States matched its greatest output since 2022. The Eurozone’s manufacturing PMI index also rose from December, but remained in negative territory. “Manufacturing production in China increased at a quicker rate in the opening month of the year, underpinned by rising new business inflows. Companies often mentioned that greater client interest and increased customer bases had supported the latest uptick in new orders,” according to S&P Global’s RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI report. China’s PMI was 50.3, rising from 50.1 in December. Its business confidence dropped to a nine-month low, however. In the U.S., the PMI index was 52.4 last month, up from 51.8 in December. Output production increased due to growth in new orders, but exports fell for a seventh consecutive month. “Over the past three months, the survey indicates that factories have typically produced more goods than they have sold to a degree we have not previously seen since the global financial cr
Reports
US jobs report delayed by partial US govt shutdown
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not release the January employment report as scheduled on Friday because of the partial government shutdown, delaying one of the most closely watched indicators of the United States labour market. “The Employment Situation release for January 2026 will not be released as scheduled on Friday, February 6, 2026. The release will be rescheduled upon the resumption of government funding,” Emily Liddel, associate commissioner of the BLS, said in a statement. The delay comes at a critical juncture for investors and policymakers, who had been looking to the nonfarm payrolls report for fresh insight into hiring momentum, wage trends and the broader health of the economy. The employment situation report includes the headline nonfarm payrolls figure, which measures how many workers businesses added during the month, alongside data from a household survey used to calculate the unemployment rate. Market expectations had centred on an increase of 70,000 jobs in January, with the unemployment rate projected to hold steady at 4.4%. Without the report, traders and economists will be left with a significant gap in the week’s data flow, complicating assessments of labour market conditions and

Reports
US population growth slows as immigration numbers drop
United States population growth has slowed significantly alongside a sharp drop in immigration, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The population growth in the U.S. grew only 0.5% to 1.8 million between 1 July 2024 and 1 July 2025. This marks the slowest population growth since the COVID pandemic, when there was a historically low increase of 0.2% in 2021. Assistant division chief for estimates and projections at the Census Bureau said the sharp decline in net international migration was the reason for the slower growth rate, as births and deaths remained relatively stable. “The slowdown in U.S. population growth is largely due to a historic decline in net international migration, which dropped from 2.7 million to 1.3 million in the period from July 2024 through June 2025,” she said. Despite immigrants accounting for much of the labour force growth following the pandemic, illegal border crossing has essentially come to a halt. President Donald Trump has also cracked down on deporting undocumented immigrants, with immigration raids across the country and limited legal immigration. This includes a surge in Immigration and Customs Enforcement funding, even as the agency faces backlash over its tactics following
Reports
US consumer confidence dives to more than decade low
American consumer confidence has fallen through the floor, landing at levels last seen when Tony Abbott was still the Australian prime minister and the iPhone 6 was considered cutting-edge technology. The Conference Board’s January reading of 84.5 isn’t so much a bad number as it is a warning flare fired from the suburban checkout line, with consumers' hip pockets feeling the brunt of the pain. Wall Street shrugs these numbers off as noise, with share traders acting as if sentiment surveys are an indulgence for economists with too much time on their hands. But consumer confidence isn’t about what Americans bought yesterday, it’s about what they’re scared to buy tomorrow. Two ideas sit at the centre of this slump. The first is the labour market, the second is affordability; both are being treated by the Trump administration as if they’re unrelated annoyances rather than symptoms of the same illness. Fewer than one in four Americans now believe work is plentiful. The so-called labour market differential, aka the gap between people who say jobs are easy to get and those who say they’re scarce, has collapsed to levels that usually come with rising unemployment. When households sense that hiring has stalled
Reports
US Q3 growth revised higher as profits improve
The United States economy grew slightly faster than initially estimated in the third quarter, according to revised government data released on Thursday, while corporate profits were also adjusted higher. Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at a revised annualised rate of 4.4% in the July–September period, up from the previously reported 4.3% pace and marking the fastest growth since the third quarter of 2023, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said in its updated estimate. Markets had expected GDP growth at 4.3%. The economy expanded at a 3.8% pace in the second quarter. The modest upward revision reflected stronger exports and business investment, while imports, which subtract from GDP, were also revised higher. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose at a 3.5% rate in the third quarter. However, underlying domestic demand showed some softening. Final sales to private domestic purchasers, a key measure of internal demand, increased at a 2.9% rate, revised down from the previously estimated 3.0%. The BEA said the rise in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, government spending and investment, while imports decline
Reports
Billionaire wealth grew rapidly in 2025, says Oxfam
Billionaire wealth grew three times faster than the past five-year average, according to an Oxfam report. The Resisting the Rule of the Rich: Protecting Freedom from Billionaire Power report was published as the World Economic Forum opens in Davos, and found that billionaire wealth grew nearly 81% since 2020. In 2025 alone, it grew 16% to US$18.3 trillion (A$27.29 trillion). In a media release, Oxfam said that the surge in billionaire wealth coincided with U.S. President Donald Trump pursuing a pro-billionaire agenda through slashing taxes for the ultra-rich, which undermined global efforts to tax large corporations, reversed attempts to address monopoly power and contributed to the growth of AI-related stocks that have provided a boon to super-rich investors worldwide. The report found that the collective wealth of billionaires surged by US$2.5 trillion, most equivalent to the total wealth held by the bottom half of humanity – 4.1 billion people. This rise in wealth would be enough to eradicate extreme poverty 26 times over. For the first time ever, the number of billionaires surpassed 3,000, with the richest person in the world, Elon Musk, being the first to surpass half a trillion dollars. The 48 billionair