Reports

Reports
US consumer confidence hits five-month low in October
United States consumer confidence dropped to a five-month low in October amid a stagnant job market and high inflation, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary Surveys of Consumers report. The report’s consumer sentiment index was 55.0 in October, down 22.0% year-over-year and down 0.2% from September. “Improvements this month in current personal finances and year-ahead business conditions were offset by declines in expectations for future personal finances as well as current buying conditions for durables. Overall, consumers perceive very few changes in the outlook for the economy from last month,” said Surveys of Consumers director Joanne Hsu. “Pocketbook issues like high prices and weakening job prospects remain at the forefront of consumers’ minds. At this time, consumers do not expect meaningful improvement in these factors.” The consumer expectations index fell by 30.9% year-over-year to 51.2, and was down 1.0% from September. Its current economic conditions index was 61.0, falling 6.0% from one year ago, but rising 1.0% from September. The consumer sentiment, consumer expectations, and current economic conditions indexes were all highest among Republicans and lowest among Democrats, with indepen
Reports
Fed minutes reveal split over pace of 2025 rate cuts
Federal Reserve officials were largely in favour of lowering interest rates at their September meeting, though they remained divided over how many cuts would be appropriate by year-end, according to minutes released on Wednesday. The meeting summary showed near unanimity among policymakers that the central bank’s benchmark borrowing rate should be reduced amid signs of softening in the United States labour market. However, participants were split on whether to implement two or three total cuts in 2025, including the quarter-point reduction approved at the 16–17 September meeting. “In considering the outlook for monetary policy, almost all participants noted that, with the reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting, the Committee was well positioned to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments,” the minutes stated. “Participants expressed a range of views about the degree to which the current stance of monetary policy was restrictive and about the likely future path of policy,” the document added. “Most judged that it likely would be appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder of this year.” The minutes also noted that “the information available at the time
Reports
Westpac: Sentiment slumps to 6-month low
Australian consumer sentiment has fallen to its weakest level in six months, with rising concerns about inflation and the economic outlook dragging confidence lower, according to Westpac’s latest monthly survey. The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index declined 3.5% to 92.1 in October from 95.4 in September, marking a return to firmly pessimistic territory. Matthew Hassan, Westpac’s Head of Australian Macro-Forecasting, said: “At 92.1, the October Index read is now at firmly pessimistic levels, albeit still well above the very weak reads seen during the extended ‘cost-of-living’ crisis.” The report found that sentiment deteriorated across most categories, reversing gains made earlier this year when expectations of interest rate cuts briefly lifted household morale. Westpac said the renewed slump came as consumers became increasingly uneasy about the persistence of inflation, which has shown signs of firming again. “Consumers appear to have been rattled by recent updates on inflation. ‘Partial’ measures released over the last month suggest annual inflation has lifted back towards the top of the RBA’s 2–3% target range,” the bank said. The biggest declines were recorded in assessments of family fina
Reports
Australia's trade surplus falls as gold exports slump
Australia’s balance on trade plunged in the year ended August as exports fell and imports increased, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The trade deficit in the period was $4.787 billion, compared with a surplus of $1.944 billion a month earlier, as the surplus narrowed to $1,825 billion in August from $6.612 billion in July. Non-monetary gold shipments drove a 7.8% fall in exports to $41.858 billion, while consumption goods were behind a 3.2% increase in imports to $40.033 billion in August. Non-rural and general merchandise exports also fell in August, while rural goods exports increased. Goldman Sachs said the fall in the trade surplus in August was larger than expected, noting that non-monetary gold exports were volatile. Consumption goods imports rose 5.8%, driven by non-industrial transport equipment. Among minerals commodities, the major export reductions were in thermal coal to China and Japan, Australia's two largest trading partners, iron ore lumps and hard coking coal to South Korea and liquified natural gas, while the main export increases were in iron ore fines to China and hard coking coal to India.
Reports
US job openings stagnate, consumer confidence drops
United States job openings remained unchanged in August, while consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level since April amid faltering economic conditions. There were 7.23 million job openings in the U.S. in August, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, an increase of 19,000. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped from 97.8 in August to 94.2 in September. “Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low,” said The Conference Board Senior Economist, Global Indicators Stephanie Guichard. “Consumers’ write-in responses showed that references to prices and inflation rose in September, regaining its top position as the main topic influencing consumers’ views of the economy.” Write-in responses also saw the most mentions of jobs and employment since August 2024. The number of hires in August was 5.1 million, a slight decline from July’s revised 5.2 million. Hiring rates remained largely stable across industries. Total separations, including quits and layoffs, were 5.1 million in August. In July, there wer

Reports
US consumer spending, headline PCE up in August
United States consumer spending rose by 0.6% in August amid increases in transportation, food, and accommodation, while the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index grew by 0.3%. Personal spending was up by US$129.2 billion last month, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Spending on transportation services grew by $13.9 billion, the largest amount of any sector. Growth in personal spending “reflected increases of $77.2 billion in spending on services and $52.0 billion in spending on goods”, the Bureau said. Food services and accommodations saw the second-highest increase, at $13.0 billion. Recreational goods and vehicles posted the third-highest growth, and the highest of any goods-related sector. U.S. personal income was up by $95.7 billion, or 0.4%. Disposable personal income also increased by 0.4%. “Personal saving was $1.06 trillion in August and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.6 percent,” wrote the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The personal consumption expenditures price index increased by 0.3% last month. It was up 2.7% year-over-year, compared with 2.6% in July, and above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Price levels e
Reports
US economy grows 3.8% in Q2, fastest in nearly 2yrs
The United States economy expanded at a faster pace than initially thought in the second quarter of 2025 amid resilient consumer demand, robust business investment, and a sharp narrowing of the trade deficit. Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annualised 3.8% rate in the April–June period, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said on Thursday in its third estimate, posting the strongest growth since the third quarter of 2023, and revised up from the previous 3.3% estimate. Markets had expected no change from the prior reading. The agency noted, “The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports.” Imports collapsed after a record surge in early 2025, when firms front-loaded purchases ahead of new duties, resulting in the largest trade deficit swing on record. The smaller deficit added 4.83 percentage points to growth, following a 4.68 percentage-point drag in the first quarter, when GDP contracted 0.6%. Consumer spending was stronger than previously estimated, rising at a 2.5% pac
Reports
Global GDP growth better than expected in 2025: OECD
Global gross domestic product (GDP) growth is set to slow less than originally expected this year, the OECD has said, though the full impact of the United States’ tariff policies has not yet arrived. The organisation revised its projected global GDP growth for 2025 upwards from 2.9% to 3.2% in its interim Economic Outlook report, with 2026 projections remaining at 2.9%. “Global growth proved more resilient than expected in the first half of 2025, especially in many emerging markets but also the United States. Industrial production and trade were buoyed by front-loading ahead of higher tariffs,” wrote the OECD. “While the full impact of tariff increases is still unfolding, early signs of effects are visible in consumer behaviour, labour markets and prices. Labour markets are softening, with higher unemployment and fewer job openings in some economies, while disinflation has stalled in many economies as food prices rose and services inflation remained persistent.” U.S. growth is projected to drop to 1.8% this year and 1.5% in 2026, compared with 2.8% in 2024. This is due to its tariff policies, as well as falling immigration and cuts to the federal government’s workforce. GDP growth in China and the Eurozone is also s
Reports
US retail sales rise 0.6% in August, ahead of forecasts
United States retail sales climbed more than expected in August, as consumer spending remained resilient despite mounting economic headwinds from a softening labour market and higher prices tied to tariffs. The Census Bureau reported on Tuesday that retail sales rose 0.6% last month, matching the upwardly revised July increase. Markets had forecast only a 0.2% gain. Sales were up 5.0% from a year earlier. Adjusted for inflation, however, economists estimated monthly sales increased just 0.2%. The latest data marked the third consecutive month of solid retail gains and prompted economists to lift their gross domestic product forecasts for the third quarter. ANZ analysts said: “The retail sales data indicate that demand was firm, and consumers continued spending despite tariffs kicking in from early August.” The figures are unlikely to dissuade the Federal Reserve from delivering a rate cut on Wednesday, but they may temper expectations of more aggressive easing given signs of economic resilience. Spending gains were widespread across categories. Auto dealership receipts rose 0.5% after a 1.7% advance in July, largely reflecting higher vehicle prices as unit sales slipped. Clothing store sales increased 1.0%,

Reports

US consumer confidence hits five-month low in October

Fed minutes reveal split over pace of 2025 rate cuts

Westpac: Sentiment slumps to 6-month low

Australia's trade surplus falls as gold exports slump

US job openings stagnate, consumer confidence drops

US consumer spending, headline PCE up in August

US economy grows 3.8% in Q2, fastest in nearly 2yrs

Global GDP growth better than expected in 2025: OECD

US retail sales rise 0.6% in August, ahead of forecasts