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US inflation jumps as growth falls short in March
United States inflation accelerated in March while economic growth undershot expectations, as a surge in energy prices linked to the Iran conflict complicated the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and squeezed household budgets. Data released yesterday by the U.S Commerce Department showed the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — rose 0.3% for the month, lifting the annual rate to 3.2%, in line with market forecasts. Headline inflation, which includes food and energy, increased 0.7% in March, pushing the annual rate to 3.5%, the highest since mid-2023. Driven largely by energy costs, the figures underscore a renewed inflationary impulse. Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annualised rate of 2% in the first quarter, up from 0.5% in late 2025 but below the 2.2% expected by economists, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The inflation spike coincides with a sharp rise in fuel prices, with data from the U.S Energy Information Administration showing that average petrol prices climbed more than 24% in March, with pump prices exceeding US$4 a gallon for the first time in nearly four years, reflecting supply disruptions tied to the Iran war.
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CB consumer confidence edges higher in April
United States consumer confidence rose modestly in April, reaching its highest level so far this year as improved sentiment around the labour market offset persistent concerns about inflation and energy prices. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased by 0.6 points to 92.8, up from a revised 92.2 in March. The reading surpassed market expectations of 89, indicating resilience in household sentiment despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The improvement was driven largely by stronger consumer expectations for employment prospects and income growth. The Conference Board noted that the survey period coincided with a temporary two-week ceasefire in the U.S. conflict with Iran, which has since been extended indefinitely, providing a degree of short-term stability. “Consumer confidence edged up in April but was overall little changed, despite material concern about rising gasoline prices as the war in the Middle East prompted a surge in Brent crude oil prices,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board. “Consumer appraisals of current and expected business conditions declined moderately compared to last month. This was offset by modest improvements in consumers’ perceptions of the labo
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US consumer sentiment falls to all time low
United States consumer sentiment has reached an almost four year low, after falling for a second consecutive month. Declines in sentiment reached levels comparable to its mid-2022 trough and were seen across political party, income, age and education, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Earlier in the month, the index sat at 47.6, but this rose slightly to 49.8 after a two-week ceasefire was announced and gas prices ticked slightly lower; however, this still marks an all-time low. Expected business conditions declined for both the short and long run, nearly matching year-ago readings when the reciprocal tariff regime was implemented. “The Iran conflict appears to be passing through to consumer views primarily through effects on prices, particularly gas and energy prices stemming from disruptions to shipping,” University of Michigan director of surveys, Joanne Hsu, said. “At this time, consumers do not foresee relief from high prices in the near future. “In fact, consumers expect them to worsen before they improve.” The national average retail gasoline price has hovered above $4 a gallon this month, with diesel well above $5 a gallon, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administrati
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US retail sales jump 1.7% on fuel surge
United States retail sales recorded their strongest monthly increase in more than three years in March, driven largely by a sharp rise in fuel prices linked to the ongoing conflict in Iran. Data released by the U.S. Commerce Department showed retail sales climbed 1.7% in March, following an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in February. The reading marked the fastest pace of growth since early 2025 and provided the first comprehensive snapshot of consumer activity since the Iran war began. A significant portion of the increase was concentrated in fuel spending, as higher petrol prices pushed consumers to allocate more of their budgets to energy costs. Sales at petrol stations surged 15.5% over the month. Excluding fuel, retail sales rose a more modest 0.6%, supported by factors including tax refunds and seasonal spending linked to warmer weather. Despite pressure from higher energy costs, discretionary spending showed resilience. Department store sales rose 4.2%, while furniture and home furnishings stores recorded a 2.2% gain. Online retail activity increased by 1%, and consumer electronics and appliance stores posted a 0.9% rise. Miscellaneous retailers were the only category to register a decline during the mo
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Consumer confidence down heavily in April: Westpac
Australian consumer sentiment has fallen drastically over the last month, according to the latest Westpac consumer sentiment index. The index looks at five categories: assessments of family finances compared to a year ago, expectations for family finances and the economy over the next year, expectations for the economy over the next five years, and whether now is a good time to buy a major household item. From March to April, the index found that consumer sentiment fell from 91.6 to 80.1, or 12.5%, which marks the largest fall since the COVID pandemic. The plummet has been attributed to skyrocketing fuel prices and growing interest rates. Average fuel pump prices reached $2.40/litre in the first week of April, an increase of 37 cents from the March survey and 77 cents compared to the same time in February. Fears of job loss were also at the highest point in five and a half years. “Australian consumers are being hit by another ‘cost of living’ shock. The spike in fuel prices following the U.S.–Israel war on Iran and a further 25bp interest rate increase are again putting finances under intense pressure,” said Matthew Hassan, Head of Australian Macro-Forecasting. “At 80, the Index is back near historical lows, a

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Economic outlook darkens for US consumers
Consumer sentiment in the United States has fallen to its lowest level on record, as households brace for rising prices linked to the Iran war and a surge in energy costs, according to closely watched survey data released Friday. The preliminary April reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to 47.6, a 10.7% decline from March and the weakest result in the survey’s more than 70-year history, based on data published by the University of Michigan. The sharp deterioration coincided with a rapid increase in inflation expectations and followed weeks of volatility tied to disruptions in global energy markets. The figures underpin growing concern that the Iran war is feeding through to domestic prices, threatening consumer spending and broader economic stability. Survey director Joanne Hsu said responses indicated “many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavourable changes to the economy”, with sentiment weakening across all demographic groups, including age, income and political affiliation. Expectations for inflation over the next 12 months jumped to 4.8%, up from 3.8% in March - the largest monthly increase since April 2025. Longer-term expectations also edged higher, with the fiv
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US Q4 GDP revised down to 0.5%
United States economic growth slowed more than previously estimated in the fourth quarter, as weaker business investment and inventory accumulation weighed on activity, according to revised government data. The gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annualised rate of 0.5%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its third estimate. The figure marked a downgrade from the previously reported 0.7% pace and a sharp revision from the initial estimate of 1.4%. Economists had expected the growth rate to remain unrevised at 0.7%. The downward adjustment largely reflected weaker business spending, particularly on intellectual property products, as well as a softer contribution from inventories. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, was also revised lower, rising at a 1.9% pace compared with the previously reported 2.0%. "The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were increases in consumer spending and investment. These movements were partly offset by decreases in government spending and exports. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased." The release further noted: "From an industry perspective, the increase in re
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US services sector growth slows; input prices surge
United States services sector growth slowed in March, while input prices surged amid the Iran war. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Services PMI was 54%, declining from 56.1% in February. This is also below Reuters-polled economists’ forecast of 54.9%. “March’s Services PMI® features the third month in a row with an increase in the 12-month PMI® average, up 0.6 percentage point from 51.7 percent in December 2025 to 52.3 percent. However, six of the 10 subindexes decreased month-over-month,” said ISM services business survey committee chair Steve Miller. The ISM’s index measuring input prices surged 7.7 percentage points to 70.7%, its highest reading since 2022 and its largest percentage increase in over 13 years. The index has exceeded 60% for 16 consecutive months. According to survey respondents, the Iran war has disrupted shipping for the construction sector, while rising fuel prices have significantly raised operational costs for the airline industry. “Companies across many industries reported seeing higher gas and diesel pricing, and inventories of multiple goods increased to withstand supply chain disruptions or short-term oil price impacts. Such construction products as lumber, copper and steel wer
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US manufacturing PMI up in March; deliveries slow
United States manufacturing activity increased in March, but supplier deliveries slowed amid the Iran war. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI was 52.7% in March, rising 0.3 percentage points from February. “In March, U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory, growing at a slightly faster pace than the month before,” said ISM manufacturing business survey committee chair Susan Spence. “This month also marks the first report with panelists citing the Iran war as a new impact to their business, along with ongoing uncertainty with U.S. economic policy, despite the recent Supreme Court ruling striking down International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs.” The supplier deliveries index slowed for a fourth consecutive month. The index was up 3.8 percentage points to 58.9%, with readings above 50% indicating slower deliveries. ISM’s inventories index fell by 1.7 percentage points to 47.1%, meanwhile. The production index grew for a fifth consecutive month, increasing 1.6 percentage points to 53.5%. Prices also rose, with the prices index climbing 7.8 percentage points to 78.3 . This index has surged 19.3 percentage points in the last two months, and is now at its hig