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American consumers pull back as retail sales fall 0.2%
United States retail sales fell 0.2% in January to US$733.5 billion, the first monthly decline since October and below the flat reading economists had expected, according to Commerce Department data released on Friday after being delayed by the 43-day government shutdown. The report landed alongside a February jobs print showing 92,000 positions cut and unemployment rising to 4.4%, with hiring deteriorating from the 126,000 added in January. The so-called control group - which strips out autos, petrol, building materials and restaurants, and feeds directly into GDP calculations - rose 0.3%, suggesting underlying consumption held up better than the headline figure. Motor vehicle dealers dragged the top line lower with a 0.9% decline, while petrol stations dropped 2.9%, largely reflecting lower pump prices in January rather than weaker demand. The intensifying U.S.-Iran conflict has since pushed the national average to $3.32 a gallon, up from $2.98 a week earlier, according to AAA. Health and personal care stores fell 3%, clothing dropped 1.7%, and consumer electronics slipped 0.6%, with severe winter weather keeping shoppers away from physical stores across much of the country. Non-store retailers posted a 1.9% ga
Reports
US services sector hits highest gear since 2022
The ISM Services PMI rose to 56.1% in February - its strongest reading in over two and a half years - as new orders and business activity accelerated well beyond expectations. The headline figure climbed 2.3 percentage points from January's 53.8%, marking the 20th consecutive month in expansion territory and beating the consensus estimate of 53.5%. New orders were the standout, jumping 5.5 percentage points to 58.6% - an uptick that points to services demand gaining traction beyond the usual suspects. Business activity hit 59.9%, up 2.5 percentage points on the prior month and the second-highest print since November 2022. All 10 reported indexes sat in expansion territory for the first time since March 2021, with eight trending positively over the past six months. ISM Services Business Survey Committee chair Steve Miller noted the February reading corresponds to annualised real GDP growth of roughly 2.5%.Prices ease, factory hires don'tThe services Prices Index dipped to 63% from 66.6% in January - falling 3.4 percentage points below its 12-month average. It remains above 60%, but the direction of travel will be noted at the Federal Reserve. Manufacturing tells a different story. The ISM Manufacturing Price
Reports
Australian economy grows 0.8% in Q4 2025
Economic growth in Australia continued to accelerate in the last quarter of 2025, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The ABS said gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.8% in the December quarter of 2025 and 2.6% in the year to December 2025, in seasonally-adjusted terms. Head of National Accounts Grace Kim said GDP per capita increased for the fourth consecutive quarter and was 0.9% higher than a year ago, the strongest through-the-year growth since the December quarter of 2022. “There was broad based economic growth in the quarter, with rises observed in a large majority of industries. Public and private demand each contributed 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth,” Kim said in a media release. Changes in inventories also contributed to growth, reflecting a rebuild in inventory stocks through production and imports, while net trade detracted from growth as the rise in imports outpaced exports. Commonwealth Bank of Australia economists were expecting GDP growth of 1.0%, giving an annual rate of 2.7%, but some Q4 forecasts were as low as 0.7% to 0.8%. The ABS said household spending rose 0.3 % in the quarter and 2.4% through the year with discretionary spending gaining 0.4% due to the exp
Reports
US manufacturing continues growth in Feb; prices soar
United States manufacturing activity continued to slowly rise in February, but prices for newly-produced goods surged amid tariff pressures. The manufacturing purchasers managers index (PMI) declined from 52.6% in January to 52.4% in February, per the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). This was above Reuters-polled economists’ forecast of 51.8%. “In February, U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory, although growing at a slower pace than the month before. Of the five subindexes that make up the PMI, two (New Orders and Production) indicated slower growth compared to the previous month, and the Employment and Inventories indexes remained in contraction,” said chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee Susan Spence. February’s production index was 53.5%, 2.4 percentage points below January’s reading. The employment index increased from 48.1% to 48.8% during the month. “The Production Index is in expansion for the fourth month in a row, and the Employment Index, though still in contraction, improved by 0.7-percentage point,” said Spence. “However, 45 percent of panelists still indicate that managing head counts is the norm at their companies as opposed to hiring.” The prices index
Reports
Global debt reached a record US$348 trillion in 2025
Global debt has surged almost US$29 trillion, to a record $348 trillion in 2025, according to the Institute of International Finance. The IIF said that governments’ investments in national security were the main drivers behind the $28.8 trillion rise. Spending on AI and similar technology also contributed greatly to the biggest annual increase in global debt since the Covid-19 pandemic. The data also showed that, as a share of output, global debt ratios declined for a fifth consecutive year to around 308 per cent of GDP. The debt-to-GDP ratio is seen as an important indicator of borrowers’ capacity to honour their obligations. The increase was also primarily driven by governments, which accounted for more than $10 trillion of the rise. The United States, China and the euro area were responsible for around three-quarters of the jump. According to the data, the global debt cycle is driven less by households or companies and more by persistent fiscal deficits in major economies. Government debt stood at around $106.7 trillion at the end of the year, up from $96.3 trillion. In comparison, non-financial corporate debt reached around $100.6 trillion, and household liabilities rose more moderately to $64.6 tril

Reports
US consumer confidence up after January decline
Consumer confidence has bounced back in the United States in February, after a rocky start to the year with a January decline. The latest Index numbers found that consumer confidence had inched back up to 91.2, from 89 in January (revised from an initial figure of 84.5). Markets were expecting a reading of 87. Inflation expectations remained high and “top of consumer's minds”, alongside prices and cost of goods concerns. The upward sentiment came largely from Republicans and Independents, aged 54 and younger, with Democrats and older respondents remaining more pessimistic. "Consumers' write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism," said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. “Mentions of trade and politics also increased. Labor market mentions eased a bit, while observations about immigration increased somewhat.”
Reports
US factory orders drop in December amid aircraft slump
United States factory orders dropped in December due to a large decrease in aircraft orders, the U.S. Census Bureau said today. Orders fell 0.7% to US$617.5 billion during the month, down from 2.7% growth in November. Reuters-polled economists had expected an 0.6% decrease. “Shipments, up two of the last three months, increased $3.1 billion or 0.5 percent to $609.2 billion,” according to the agency. Shipments had dipped by 0.2% in November. Orders for commercial aircraft and parts plummeted 24.8% to $26.7 billion in December, despite a 98.2% rise in November. While Boeing reported an increase in orders from November, these models were less expensive, according to the company. The aircraft industry is also experiencing an engine shortage, with engine values soaring to represent as much as 80% of a new aircraft. Airbus lowered its 2026 delivery targets last week, citing a lack of engines from U.S.-based Pratt & Whitney. Orders for new transportation equipment shed 5.4% overall, weighed down by the drop in the aircraft segment. Ships and boats also dipped 4.6%, while motor vehicle bodies, parts, and trailers were up 2%. New orders for mining, oilfield, and gas field machinery rose 8.5%, though this eased from Novemb
Reports
United States trade gap widens despite tariff claims
The United States trade deficit blew out to US$70.3 billion in December, a 32.6% jump in a single month, wrong-footing economists who had pencilled in an improvement. For the full year, the gap between what America imports and what it exports — the trade deficit, meaning it buys more from the world than it sells — barely shifted, easing just 0.2% to $901.5 billion. That modest annual change sits awkwardly beside U.S. President Donald Trump’s claim that tariffs had slashed the deficit by 78%. Tariffs are import taxes paid by domestic companies when goods cross the border. While they are designed to make foreign products more expensive and local production more attractive, in practice, tariffs often rearrange trade rather than reduce it. Imports surged 3.6% in December to US$357.6 billion, while goods alone accounted for US$280.2 billion. The spike was led by industrial supplies - including non-monetary gold, copper and crude oil - and, more tellingly, capital goods. Capital goods are big-ticket items used to produce other goods and services, like computer servers or telecommunications equipment. Imports of these rose $5.6 billion in the month, with strong demand for computer accessories and chip-related
Reports
NY Fed: Americans bear brunt of Trump tariff surge
Americans are absorbing the overwhelming share of President Donald Trump’s latest surge in import tariffs, according to new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, challenging recent claims that foreign exporters are footing the bill. In a report released on Thursday, the New York Fed said 90% of the tariffs imposed by the president on imported goods are being borne by American consumers and businesses. The findings directly counter the Trump administration’s longstanding argument that the levies are largely paid by overseas producers. The study assessed the economic impact of tariffs last year, when the average rate of import taxes rose sharply from 2.6% to 13%. The report noted that tariff levels fluctuated throughout the year, peaking in April and May when Trump lifted tariffs on Chinese goods to 125% before reducing them to 113%. The authors based their analysis on evidence from Trump’s first term in office. When faced with comparable duties, the report stated that “our past work found that foreign exporters did not lower their prices at all, so the full incidence of the tariffs was borne by the U.S. That is, there was 100% pass-through from tariffs into import prices”. Between January and August