United States households grew increasingly concerned about their financial wellbeing in November, with sentiment deteriorating both for current conditions and the year ahead, according to the latest Survey of Consumer Expectations published by the New York Federal Reserve on Monday.
The findings paint a more fragile picture of household finances at a time when the Federal Reserve is preparing to make a closely scrutinised interest rate decision.
The report noted: "Perceptions about households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago deteriorated notably, with a larger share of respondents reporting that their households were worse off compared to a year ago, and a smaller share reporting they were better off.
"Expectations about year-ahead financial situations also deteriorated slightly with a smaller share of respondents reporting that their households are expecting to be better off a year from now."
Despite this gloomier financial view, sentiment towards the labour market improved over the month.
Expectations of higher unemployment a year from now eased, and the perceived likelihood of losing a job within the next 12 months fell to its lowest point since December 2024.
Households also scaled back their likelihood of leaving their jobs voluntarily, suggesting a more cautious approach to employment decisions.
The release comes just a day before the Federal Open Market Committee begins a policy meeting that is expected to provoke significant debate among policymakers.
Markets widely anticipate a quarter-point rate cut on Wednesday, which would bring the federal funds rate down to a 3.50%-3.75% range. The adjustment is intended to support a labour market showing increasing signs of softening, though it is likely to encounter resistance from officials concerned that inflation continues to run well above the central bank’s 2% goal.
Inflation expectations in the survey largely held steady in November, offering some reassurance that price pressures may be stabilising.
Households estimated inflation at 3.2% over the next year, unchanged from October, while expectations for three- and five-year horizons remained at 3%.
The stability in long-term expectations is typically viewed as a positive signal for policymakers seeking to anchor inflation psychology.
In the housing market, respondents continued to expect a 3% rise in home prices over the coming year, reflecting steady sentiment despite a persistently tight supply environment. Expectations for changes in commodity prices showed only modest shifts, although medical cost projections jumped sharply.
The survey recorded a 10.1% expected increase in medical expenses over the next year, the highest reading since January 2014, amid increased financial strain posed by rising healthcare costs.
The report also highlighted continuing optimism around earnings and income growth, which remained positive compared with the previous month.
This suggests that, despite concerns about financial conditions and broader economic uncertainty, households still anticipate modest income improvements in the near term.
