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Cotality: National housing market defies expectations
Australia’s housing market defied expectations in the face of intense affordability and cost-of-living pressures to deliver an above-average growth rate of 7.7% year-over-year. According to Cotality’s Best of the Best report, National Dwellings are set to close 2025 at least 8% higher. Cotality head of research, Eliza Owen, said this highlights how quickly conditions shifted after “considerable pressure” at the start of the year. “Affordability had hit a series high, serviceability was stretched and price growth had flattened out,” Owen said. “What followed was an unexpectedly strong rebound as interest rate cuts, easing inflation and limited supply reignited competition.” After three rate cuts, an expansion of the 5% Home Guarantee Deposit Scheme and persistently low listing volumes helped drive recovery, the housing market recorded three consecutive months of growth of at least 1% by November, reaching a record high of A$12 trillion. Owen said the turnaround was most visible across lower-value markets and regions where buyers were able to respond quickly to more favourable credit conditions. “Tight supply meant even modest demand created upward pressure on prices. Cheaper markets had the most acceleration be
Housing
Australian home values grow 1% in November
Australian home values increased by 1.0% in November, though Melbourne and Sydney’s growth lagged other capital cities. This is a slight decline from October's 1.1% growth, according to Cotality’s Home Value Index report. Melbourne values were up 0.3% and Sydney values rose by 0.5%, while all other capitals saw growth of at least 1%. “The skew towards the mid-sized capitals is especially evident in Perth, where listings are holding more than 40% below average, buyer demand is elevated, and the 2.4% monthly rise in dwelling values has added just over $21,000 to the median in November, roughly $5,000/week,” said Cotality research director Tim Lawless. Sydney and Brisbane had the highest median housing values of any capital city, at A$1.27 million and $1.02 million, respectively. Brisbane, Adelaide, and Darwin saw the second-highest monthly value growth after Perth, all at 1.9% in November. Regional housing values increased by 1.1% in November, and the median housing value across nationwide regional areas was $723,107. Regional Western Australia led gains at 1.7%, while regional Victoria’s growth was the lowest at 0.8%. Housing unaffordability has remained high, which could weigh on housing value growth, according t
Housing
Housing affordability reaches record low: Cotality
Housing affordability in Australia has never been worse, with home prices rising nearly 50% since 2020. According to a new report by Cotality, it would now take a decade to save a standard 20% deposit for a house in most capital cities. Since the pandemic, Cotality head of research Eliza Owen said around A$280,000 was added to the median dwelling value. “This surge was fuelled by pandemic-era monetary stimulus and record-low interest rates that supercharged borrowing capacity and demand, even as housing supply lagged well behind household formation,” she said. “The past five years combined extraordinary demand drivers with supply constraints, creating an extraordinary boom in both home values and rents.” The report found that the average household needs to save around 45% of its income to service a new mortgage. Sydney remains the most expensive and unaffordable city where the average household needs to dedicate 68% of their income to paying off the average mortgage of a house and 39% of their before-tax pay for a mortgage on a unit. Conditions have severely deteriorated across Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth. Canberra, Hobart and Melbourne have been bright spots with mild improvements in affordability, but mo
Housing
US homebuilder confidence up one point in November
United States homebuilder confidence rose by just one point in November amid the government shutdown and a weak labour market. Builders’ confidence in the market for new single-family homes increased by one point to 38, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. The index has been below 40 since May. “While lower mortgage rates are a positive development for affordability conditions, many buyers remain hesitant because of the recent record-long government shutdown and concerns over job security and inflation,” said NAHB chairman Buddy Hughes. “More builders are using incentives to get deals closed, including lowering prices, but many potential buyers still remain on the fence.” “We continue to see demand-side weakness as a softening labor market and stretched consumer finances are contributing to a difficult sales environment,” said NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz. The current sales conditions index rose by two points to 41, but sales expectations for the next six months dropped by three points to 51. Traffic of prospective buyers Around 41% of builders reported cutting prices in November, a record high in the post-pandemic period. The average price reduction re
Housing
REA Group posts positive earnings as house values grow
The REA Group delivered strong yield growth in Q1 2026, with revenue rising 4% year over year. Overall revenue grew from A$413 million the same time last year ot $429 million and EBITDA grew 5% to $254 million. This was driven by a 6% increase in Australian revenue to $405 million, despite residential listings declining by 8%. Residential revenue alone grew by 4% year-over-year, coming at a time when housing prices continue to grow at a rapid pace. Commercial revenue also grew and was driven by an average 7% price rise, increased depth penetration and slightly lower listings. Financial services had an especially strong quarter, benefiting from a 16% increase in settlements, partly offset by increased broker payouts. realestate.com.au also delivered record audience numbers with 12.6 million people visiting each month on average and 6.7 million exclusively using the site. The site also reported a 10% increase in active members year-over-year. Despite the positive Australian numbers, REA India’s revenue fell 20% from the same time last year. In its FY26 outlook, the company said the Australian residential market remains healthy with strong buyer demand nationally, continued house price growth and improved s

Housing
US homebuilder sentiment up as mortgage rates drop
United States homebuilder sentiment rose in October to its highest point since April, amid a decline in mortgage rates. Builders’ confidence in the newly-built housing market was 37 in October, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. This is an increase of five points from the previous month. “While recent declines for mortgage rates are an encouraging sign for affordability conditions, the market remains challenging,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes. “The housing market has some areas with firm demand, including smaller builders shifting to remodeling and ongoing solid conditions for the luxury market. However, most home buyers are still on the sidelines, waiting for mortgage rates to move lower.” The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell from around 6.5% at the start of September to 6.3% in early October, surrounding the Federal Reserve’s September interest rate cut. It dropped again to 6.27% last week, slightly above the 2025 low recorded in September. Builder sentiment gained a three-month average of two points across all regions except the Midwest, which remained stable at 42. The Northeast’s sentiment index leads, at 46. All Housing Market Index metrics
Housing
Home loans rise following quarter of decline
Australian home investment loans increased by 3.5% in the June quarter, while new occupier loans rose by 0.9%, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data. ABS Head of Finance Statistics Mish Tan said the June quarter’s overall rise in home loans followed a fall in the March quarter. “Through the year growth was more subdued at around 0.2 per cent. That said, lending activity is still at relatively high levels,” Tan said. “While there were rate cuts in February and May, we will not see the full impact of these on new home lending activity until later in the year.”Credit: ABSLending to owner occupiers In the June quarter 80,929 new owner occupier loans were made, a 0.9% rise from the previous quarter. The total value of the loans rose 2.4% to A$54.7 billion, with the average loan reaching A$678,011. Tan said while the number of occupier loans was slightly lower than the same time last year, they still grew by 7.4%. “The average loan size has grown by 7.5 % since the June quarter 2024,” Tan said. “This was consistent with higher property prices, noting growth has been stronger in Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia.” The growth in the number of loans was driven by Queensland, with
Housing
REA Group profit jumps 23% as rate cuts lift market
REA Group (ASX: REA) delivered full-year results on Tuesday, as falling interest rates and a resurgent property market helped lift its earnings and revenues to record levels in FY25. Revenues soared by 15% to A$1.67 billion, compared to $1.45 billion in the previous fiscal year, with the vast majority of this coming from Australia. Its net profit also increased by 23% to A$546 million, and the board will pay a dividend of $1.38 per share, fully franked, which is a 35% jump from last year. REA Group CEO, Owen Wilson, said these “excellent” results were helped along by improvements in the property market and interest rate cuts. “Buyer activity increased during the year, with the first interest rate cuts in four years accelerating enquiries delivered to our customers to a three-year high in the last quarter. Demonstrating the health of the market, listings remained in line with the strong prior year,” he said. In Australia alone, revenue grew by 14% year-over-year to A$1.54 billion. This was mainly driven by residential revenue, which was up 16% to A$1.16 billion. The company also maintained its position as Australia’s number one address in property, according to Wilson. “Australians continually turn to realestat
Housing
Property prices tipped to hit record highs in Australia
Australian housing prices continue to rise, with Melbourne and Sydney leading the charge, spelling bad news for hopeful first home buyers but good news for sellers. For sellers, Cotality has revealed that 94.9% of property resales in the March 2025 quarter delivered a profit, with gross resale profits reaching A$31.7 billion. The research showed that the median nominal gain reached $305,000, a decline from the previous quarter’s $310,000. This marks the first decline since March 2023. According to Cotality’s head of research, Eliza Owen, this reflects a housing market in transition to profitability, set to rise further following March's and February’s rate cuts, with signs of renewed momentum. “With rate reductions now flowing through to buyer demand and value growth, we expect stronger resale returns in the months ahead,” Owen said. “Profit-making resales closely followed home value trends, with profitability dipping slightly as prices softened late last year. But that pullback has already reversed.” Sellers also made slightly smaller losses this quarter. Of the 5.1% of home sales that resulted in a loss, the median was $44,000, down from $45,000 in the previous quarter. This was led by house sales, which out