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Mission Critical: China truce a false sense of mineral security
For decades, the West happily outsourced critical parts of its industrial future to Beijing in exchange for cheap flat-screens and a quiet life. While Western governments were chasing phantom "end of history" dividends, China was methodically cornering key metal supply chains required to build a 21st-century economy. Azzet’s Mission Critical is a weekly column that lays out the ebbs and flows around the critical minerals supply chains - from pricing, production, refinement and mergers & acquisitions, to manufacturing and consumer products. Let's call this what it is: a direct, painful, and highly profitable consequence of a 20-year lapse in strategic thinking. Now, the bill has finally come due. China's export restrictions on gallium, germanium, antimony, and graphite are a calculated act of economic warfare. And since a ‘truce’ has been called by the United States and China over rare earths supply, market tension is now in the supporting cast: antimony, cobalt, graphite, and other strategic metals. This is the consequence of letting a primary geopolitical rival become the sole dealer for materials that run the entire Western economy and military. The problem has worsened. The IEA's Global Critical Minerals Outlook
Mining
Australia’s critical minerals boom faces harsh reality
While ASX-listed critical minerals stocks have been on a tear following the United States-Australia deal to jointly invest US$3 billion in aspiring projects, it’s back to reality time for investors quick to take bets on these stocks with their ears pinned back. To be sure, some of these stocks will go on to do great things and getting in relatively early on their growth story is smart. However, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), amongst others, has been quick to remind the market that, despite Australia being blessed with an abundance of rare earth (RE) resources, the road to riches within the critical minerals space is at best tricky. First, the good news: Australia has around a fifth of the world's known supply of lithium reserves, a little under a third (30%) of the world’s zircon reserves, around 13% of global tungsten reserves and has the fourth largest reserves of RE resources comprising 17 key elements. Given that these resources are considered vital to the next generation of advanced manufacturing, the digital economy, AI and data centres, it’s easy to conclude that Australia – already the world’s fourth largest producer of RE - is sitting pretty. Or to put it in the lyrical terms of former Australian Labo
Mining
Fatal mine blast halts Polymetals share trading
Polymetals Metals shares went into a trading halt on Tuesday following a fatal explosion at its Endeavor mine in NSW. Two people died in the blast at the 100%-owned underground silver-zinc-lead mine about 700 kilometres north-west of Sydney in the Cobar Basin of NSW on Tuesday. An investigation was launched after the incident but according to media reports, explosives set at the mine face detonated before the workers had returned to the surface. A third was taken to hospital with hearing damage and shock. The company said all mining operations had been temporarily suspended. “Everyone at Polymetals is shocked and saddened by the tragic incident at Endeavor this morning,” Polymetals Chief Executive Dave Sproule was quoted as saying. “Our deepest thoughts and condolences go out to the employees’ families, friends and colleagues. “We will continue to support all our people, family and friends as we navigate through this difficult time.” The company’s shares (ASX: POL) were last quoted at $1.24, capitalising the company at $333.43 million. Polymetals bought the Endeavor mine in 2023 and restarted mining in the first half of H1 2025. It had operated from 1982 to 2020, producing 92 million ounces of silver,
Mining
Surging gold prices drive Newmont earnings beat
Newmont Corporation passed estimates on revenue and earnings per share last quarter, driven by surging gold prices. Revenue was US$5.52 billion, up 20% year-over-year and above FactSet estimates of $5.19 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.71, rising from $0.81 and beating estimates of $1.44. “Newmont delivered a robust third quarter performance, producing approximately 1.4 million attributable gold ounces and generating a third-quarter record of $1.6 billion in free cash flow, marking the fourth consecutive quarter with over $1 billion in free cash flow," said Newmont CEO Tom Palmer. "We are making significant progress on the cost savings initiatives announced at the beginning of the year, enabling us to meaningfully improve our 2025 guidance for several cost metrics, while maintaining our outlook for production and unit costs in a rising gold price environment.” Newmont’s gold production last quarter was 1.42 million ounces, down from $1.67 million ounces year-over-year. It also produced 35,000 tonnes of copper. Average realised gold prices were $3,539 per ounce, rising from $3,320 per ounce in Q2 and $2,518 per ounce one year ago. Gold prices have spiked by more than 50% across 2025 to date amid econo
Mining
US rare earths rally as China turns screws on supply
Shares of United States rare earths and critical mineral miners traded higher on Thursday after China tightened restrictions on exports, with Beijing now requiring foreign entities to obtain a license to export products that contain rare earths worth 0.1% or more of the goods’ value. According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, companies will also need export licenses if they use China’s extraction, refining or magnet recycling technology. China chose to tighten restrictions on rare earth exports ahead of an expected meeting between President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Seoul, South Korea, later this month. While rare earths have underscored trade talk tension between Beijing and Washington for some time, the former dominates the global rare earth supply chain – leaving the U.S., along with the rest of the world, overly reliant on limited supply from China. Underpinning that tension are White House and the U.S. critical mineral industry claims that China is deliberately manipulating its market dominance to make foreign competition economically unviable. Rare earths are a subset of critical minerals that are necessary for U.S. weapons platforms, robotics

Mining
US govt secures 10% stake in Trilogy, S32 Alaskan copper
The United States Department of War has secured a 10% stake in Trilogy Metals (NYSE: TMQ, TSX: TMQ) through a US$35.6 million investment targeting Alaska's Ambler Mining District. Ambler's mineral wealth gives Washington direct exposure to copper, cobalt, zinc and lead deposits that have sat stranded for decades. The transaction, announced yesterday, sees the Pentagon taking stakes in both Trilogy and its Ambler Metals JV partner, BHP (ASX: BHP) spinoff South32 (ASX: S32). Funds are earmarked for exploration and development of the Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects within Ambler - home to some of the world's highest-grade copper deposits and other critical minerals. "This is a significant milestone for Trilogy and for the development of a secure, domestic supply of critical minerals for America in Alaska,” Trilogy CEO Tony Giardini said. The deal structure includes $17.8 million flowing directly to Trilogy for 8.2 million units at $2.17 per unit, with each unit carrying three-quarters of a 10-year warrant. Another $17.8 million goes to South32 to purchase its existing Trilogy shares, plus a call option for an additional 6.1 million shares at $0.01 each. Both the warrants and call option become exercisable once the c
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Australian critical mineral miners, Uncle Sam wants you
The Trump administration has rolled out the welcome mat for Australian miners, and this time, they're bringing United States taxpayer equity capital to the table. China controls 86% of the rare earths processing market globally, and when Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, Beijing responded by restricting exports of rare earths and permanent magnets - on top of other strategic metals. It was a hammer blow to Western industries, as they're essential inputs for carmakers, semiconductors, clean energy technologies and weapons systems. And, as one of its closest allies, Australia and its wealth of rare earths and other strategic metals have suddenly become central to America's economic trade war with Beijing. Vis-à-vis, the U.S. government has offered to buy stakes in Australian critical minerals companies as part of a funding package designed to expand domestic supply and cut reliance on China, according to executives who recently returned from meetings in Washington and New York. "U.S. government officials were saying to companies, you come to us with a proposal and we'll assess it and try and make it work through those various funding channels and programs that we have available to us," Andrew Worland, CEO of Int
Mining
Mission Critical: Pentagon MP stake a strategic blueprint
Analysts and mining executives now say the Pentagon's July investment in rare earths producer MP Materials could serve as a blueprint for interventions in other critical element sectors like lithium, changing how Washington supports domestic extraction against Beijing's dominance. The July arrangement made the Defense Department MP Materials' largest shareholder at 15% - for a tidy US$400 million - with a couple of caveats. The government pays MP the difference when rare earths prices fall below US$110/kg for its neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide, but carves out 30% of the upside when values exceed that threshold. NdPr prices jumped 40% in the wake of the deal.Erm… why is that?Glad you asked. For decades, China has systematically dismantled any rare earth competition anywhere around the world through aggressive industrial policies. It began in the mid-1980s, when Beijing issued export tax rebates that allowed Chinese miners to undercut foreign competitors. This basically exploded China's annual production from 8,500 tonnes in 1985 to 48,000t 10 years later. When American producer Molycorp attempted to reopen the shuttered Mountain Pass mine in 2010, China relaxed its export quotas and flooded the market with ch
Mining
Does Bristow departure put Barrick's Mali chaos to rest?
Barrick Mining (TSX: ABX, NYSE: B) confirmed the immediate departure of president and CEO Mark Bristow on Monday, ending a near seven-year tenure marked by strong returns but overshadowed by its catastrophic Mali dispute. The 66-year-old South African will be replaced on an interim basis by Mark Hill, a 20-year company veteran currently overseeing Latin American and Asia Pacific operations. The miner has provided no explanation for the exit, and the timing caught markets off guard. Bristow told analysts in May he planned to remain until 2028 to oversee Reko Diq, Barrick's massive copper-gold project in Pakistan. "This is clearly an abrupt transition," BMO Capital Markets analyst Matthew Murphy wrote, noting media reports had historically discussed succession planning but nothing imminent.From Randgold founder to merger architectBristow built his reputation founding Randgold Resources in 1995, growing it from West African exploration roots into a FTSE 100 gold producer. When Barrick acquired Randgold for US$6.5 billion in 2019, the smaller company's CEO took the helm of what was then the world's largest gold producer by output. Bristow promised to restructure an industry he'd once criticised for operating “at a lo