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Mission Critical: War, oil and a minerals mining cost crunch
Brent crude crossed US$108 a barrel on Monday, capping the largest weekly surge in futures trading history, after the Iran war - now in its ninth day - disrupted roughly 20% of global oil supply, closed the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping and sent stagflation fears rippling through every asset class on the planet. On 28 February - the day before Operation Epic Fury began - the Pentagon asked more than 1,500 companies in the Defence Industrial Base Consortium to submit proposals for projects that could mine, process or recycle 13 critical minerals, with funding of US$100 million to over $500 million per project. The list includes arsenic, bismuth, gadolinium, germanium, graphite, hafnium, nickel, samarium, tungsten, vanadium, ytterbium, yttrium and zirconium - materials used in semiconductors, weapons systems and jet engines. The U.S. is reliant on imports for most of them, and China is the dominant producer of all of them. The conflict is now feeding cost inflation into every layer of the Western critical minerals development pipeline, from operating expenditure through to shipping, project capital and the cost of financing.Diesel on the balance sheetDiesel typically accounts for 20% to 40% of an open-pit mine'
Mining
Mission Critical: Billions for Canada’s minerals
For a country that has spent the better part of a decade being told it is sitting on a strategic minerals fortune, Canada has been slow to deploy capital at scale, and at the world's largest mining conference in Toronto this week, the government moved to close that gap. Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hodgson tabled a C$2 billion Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund, a $1.5 billion First and Last Mile Fund, and 30 new international partnerships unlocking $12.1 billion in project capital across 12 allied nations. A joint declaration with Greenland on minerals cooperation was signed, and Prime Minister Carney's bilateral visit to New Delhi produced a memorandum of understanding with India on battery and defence metals value chains, while the European Investment Bank added a letter of intent for Canadian project co-operation. Total firepower mobilised under the Critical Minerals Production Alliance now sits at roughly $18.5 billion.Sovereign fund logicThe centrepiece of Ottawa's push is the Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund, which will deploy equity stakes, loan guarantees and offtake agreements - instruments Natural Resources Canada has not previously used at scale - with an initial mandate covering six commodities: copper, nickel,
Mining
Pentagon-backed MP picks Texas for rare earth hub
The United States currently imports around 10,000 tonnes of rare earth magnets a year from China - a number that has sat quietly in the background of every defence procurement meeting, EV strategy session and semiconductor briefing for the better part of a decade. MP Materials (NYSE: MP) intends to change that. The company has selected a 120-acre site in Northlake, Texas, for its "10X" rare earth magnet manufacturing campus, committing more than US$1.25 billion to what it is calling the largest and most strategically significant rare earth magnet asset in U.S. history. Once operational, 10X is expected to push MP's total output to approximately 10,000 metric tons of neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets per year - the permanent magnets used in EV motors, wind turbines, defence systems and advanced semiconductor fabrication equipment. The campus sits less than 10 miles from MP's existing Independence facility in Fort Worth, giving the company access to shared infrastructure from day one and cementing North Texas as the geographic anchor of the domestic magnet supply chain.Pentagon locked in for the long run10X is the centrepiece of MP's public-private partnership with the U.S. Department of War, struck in July 2025. T
Mining
Copper push underpins Rio Tinto’s post-merger strategy
Staring at the embers of a failed marriage with long-term suitor, Glencore (GLNCY), has given recently appointed CEO of Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) Siom Trott time to reflect on what’s in store for Australia’s second largest miner. While potential nuptials between Glencore and Rio were always framed as a merger, the market never saw it as anything but a takeover, with Rio’s market cap being more than double that of its Switzerland-based counterpart. Having seemingly moved on from its unrequited romance with Glencore – which Trott worked so hard to get over the line - Rio has pivoted towards a stronger, sharper, simpler solo strategy, and for this - most of the market appears truly grateful. While Glencore CEO Gary Nagle appears to want to keep the door open for a future Rio Tinto merger, that doesn’t appear to be something investors – sceptical about the value of a Glencore merger from the start - or Rio management are now willing to entertain right now. Since both companies confirmed on 5 February that weeks of negotiations had collapsed – with plans for a potential US$260 billion mining giant shattered – Rio’s share price rose to a record high of $170.19 on 13 February. While Rio remains open to acquisitions, it has
Mining
Rio Tinto expands integrated lithium vision
Following successive equity injections by both parties over the past year, Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) has officially taken majority control of Canada’s Nemaska Lithium, lifting its stake to 53.9% with plans to build a mine-to-chemicals lithium chain in Quebec. While the Quebec government – which retains 46.1% through its investment arm, Investissement Québec - has committed up to a further US$200 million via share subscriptions, Rio plans to spend more than US$300 million in 2026 expanding its lithium footprint in the province. Underpinning the strategy is vertical integration with plans to control each step of production from rock to battery material. That means mining spodumene, a lithium-bearing hard rock, and refining it into lithium hydroxide, a high-purity chemical used in electric vehicle batteries. Rio Tinto Aluminium & Lithium CEO Jérôme Pécresse told the market that the miner’s activities in Québec play an important role in its ambition to take our world-class lithium business to the next level of growth and performance, notably through Nemaska Lithium. “This evolution will facilitate the achievement of this objective and enable us to better support the long-term development of Nemaska Lithium, which will ex

Mining
BHP copper earnings tops iron ore in milestone
The Big Australian has posted a milestone set of half-year numbers. For the first time since BHP created its copper segment in FY13, the red metal contributed the majority of group earnings - overtaking iron ore as the profit engine of the world's largest miner and officially signalling to the world the age of electrification.By the numbers:Underlying attributable profit rose 22% to US$6.2 billion for the six months ended 31 December 2025, in line with Visible Alpha consensus. EBITDA swelled 25% to $15.5 billion on a 58.4% margin - up seven percentage points on the prior corresponding period. Revenue advanced 11% to $27.9 billion, propelled by a 32% spike in average realised copper prices to $5.28 per pound (lb) and a 4% nudge higher in iron ore to $84.71 per wet metric tonne (wmt).Copper seizes the crownThe crossover to copper becoming king has been building for years, but two forces brought it to a head this half - record pricing and sustained volume growth. Copper EBITDA vaulted 59% to a record $8 billion on a 66% segment margin, while iron ore's $7.5 billion expanded a far more pedestrian 4%.Source: Azzet / BHPBHP has ratcheted copper output roughly 30% over four years, with FY26 group guidance now tightened upward to
Mining
Why GlenTinto remains the mining dream that won't wake up
Alas, the proposed US$260 billion mega merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore remains just a dream. It again promised to reshape global mining, but a decade-long courtship has repeatedly collapsed under the weight of antitrust exposure, valuation gaps, cultural clashes and ESG baggage. "Global miner Rio Tinto will not be taken over by rival Glencore because there is no value in it for shareholders and regulators will never let it happen," then-CEO Sam Walsh told reporters in late 2014. When talks were finally torched again in 2026, Rio's board reverted to the same core message: it could not land terms that delivered returns in a way that justified the complexity and downside. This piece traces the saga chronologically: from Glencore's first 2014 overture and Walsh's emphatic rejection, through a brutal downturn that made boards wary of blockbuster deals, to the latest cycle of 2024-26 negotiations driven by copper demand and the energy transition. Along the way, remarks from CEOs, chairmen and prominent sell-side voices show how each side viewed the tie-up as simultaneously logical and structurally unworkable. Where Rio saw a threat to its governance premium and ESG profile, Glencore saw a transformative path to re-r
Mining
Rio Tinto calls off Glencore merger talks
Rio Tinto has formally walked away from talks with rival Glencore to create the world’s largest mining company because they could not agree on terms that would deliver value for its shareholders. Rio Tinto said it had assessed the proposed transaction but concluded the terms under discussion failed to meet its investment and capital allocation criteria. “Further to the announcement of 8 January 2026, Rio Tinto confirms that it is no longer considering a possible merger or other business combination with Glencore,” the company said in a statement. “Rio Tinto has determined that it could not reach an agreement that would deliver value to its shareholders.” Rio Tinto said it assessed the opportunity and came to this view through the “disciplined lens” set out at its Capital Markets Day in December 2025 – prioritising long-term value and delivering leading shareholder returns. The announcement ended weeks of market talk about a possible combination of two of the world’s largest diversified mining and commodities groups. Glencore also confirmed the talks had ended after they were unable to reach an agreement on the structure and valuation of a potential combination. The Swiss-based company said the terms proposed b
Mining
US govt takes stake in USA Rare Earth, shares jump
USA Rare Earth has said the United States Department of Commerce will take a stake of up to 16% in the company, sending shares up 7.9%. The Department of Commerce will supply USA Rare Earth with US$1.3 billion in loans and $277 million in federal funding, according to its letter of intent. It will receive 16.1 million shares in common stock and 17.6 million in warrants. “This landmark collaboration with the U.S. Government represents a transformative step in USAR's mission to secure and grow a resilient, independent domestic rare earth value chain," said USA Rare Earth CEO Barbara Humpton. “The LOI [letter of intent] with the U.S. Government reflects the strategic importance of USAR's mine-to-magnet platform and its role in closing the rare earth element and critical mineral supply gap for essential industries that underpin U.S. national security, including semiconductors, other critical technologies, and advanced manufacturing,” the company wrote. The U.S. government’s stake would represent 8% to 16% of USA Rare Earth’s ownership, according to a regulatory filing. Under the terms of the letter, the company would have to meet conditions such as obtaining memorandums of understanding with semiconductor end or midstre