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Mission Critical: It's Westralia's time to mine
Well, the ink is barely dry on the federal government’s $12 billion cheque for the Henderson Defence Precinct, but the race for industrial dominance in Australia's West has effectively already been critically - and minerally, won. Azzet’s Mission Critical is a weekly column that lays out the ebbs and flows around the critical minerals supply chains - from pricing, production, refinement and mergers & acquisitions, to manufacturing and consumer products. As the eastern seaboard continues to navigate a landscape of sticky inflation and stagnating productivity, Western Australia has quietly decoupled from the national malaise. Market data released this week confirms that the lithium price correction has bottomed out, with export volumes surging in November as Chinese refineries scramble to secure feedstock for 2026. It's a resurgence in the minerals cycle - combined with the solidification of sovereign defence contracts - that's created a unique economic moat around the state. The narrative has shifted from the old cyclical resources playbook to structural growth, something that the rest of the country cannot replicate. And Perth, according to JLL, is the net winner on a global scale.Credit: JLLFrom quarry to chemical
Mining
Barrick shares hit record highs on ending Mali dispute
Barrick Mining (NYSE: B, TSX: ABX) shares have hit a record high after resolving a volatile two-year dispute in West Africa - but a new challenge has emerged, with reports that United States activist investor Elliott Management has entered the boardroom as a top 10 shareholder. The Canadian miner has reached an agreement with Mali’s military government - ending a two-year standoff that saw top executives detained and gold reserves seized. Shares in Barrick, the world's second biggest gold producer, surged nearly 7.5% on Monday to hit an all-time high of C$55.93 in Toronto following the announcement, supported by reports that Elliott Management has taken a major stake in the company. Barrick's been busy:August 2023: Mali adopts a new mining code, demanding a bigger slice of miner revenuesJune 2025: Mali’s military government seizes Barrick's Loulo-Gounkoto mine and appoints a “provisional administrator”Mid-2025: Authorities seize 3 metric tons of gold and arrest four senior Barrick employeesSeptember 2025: Long-time CEO Mark Bristow abruptly resigns; Mark Hill steps in as interimNovember 2025: Elliott Management emerges as a top shareholder; Barrick and Mali announce a resolution to a two-year dispute over gold mining Mal
Mining
China amplifies long-running dispute with BHP
China’s state-run iron ore buyer has quietly told steel mills and traders to stop snapping up a specific type of BHP (ASX: BHP) ore, widening an existing ban and escalating fears about the future of Australia’s biggest export. China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) — the agency created in 2022 to centralise iron ore buying and squeeze out better pricing — told mills and traders late last week to avoid purchasing new shipments of Jinbao fines, a lower-grade ore produced by BHP, the world’s third-largest iron ore miner, according to two people familiar with the move. One source said CMRG warned mills they had a matter of days to avoid taking delivery of Jinbao fines at port, a deadline that could spark a scramble to reshuffle cargoes. It’s unclear how many buyers received the message, but this isn't the first time that China, the world’s largest consumer of the key steel-making ingredient, has played hardball with BHP over contract negotiations. Back in September, CMRG instructed mills and traders to stop buying BHP’s Jimblebar Blend Fines, as the two sides remain locked in long-running negotiations over their 2026 supply contract. When asked about the new restriction, BHP told the media it doesn’t comment on commercial
Mining
BHP scotches reports of new Anglo bid
BHP Group has denied media reports it plans a new takeover bid for Anglo American. The world’s largest mining company said it had held preliminary discussions with the Anglo American Board but was no longer considering a combination of the two companies. “Whilst BHP continues to believe that a combination with Anglo American would have had strong strategic merits and created significant value for all stakeholders, BHP is confident in the highly compelling potential of its own organic growth strategy,” BHP said in a media release. Earlier, media outlets including Reuters and Bloomberg reported BHP was preparing to launch a new takeover offer only a year after abandoning a $49 billion bid and months after Anglo agreed to merge with Canada's Teck Resources (TECKb.TO). The Teck deal, worth more than US$60 billion, would create the world’s second-largest copper producer with annual output of 1.2 million tonnes. BHP had made overtures to the one-third smaller London-listed Anglo American in the last few days, Bloomberg reported in this story. Bloomberg quoted people familiar with the situation as saying BHP’s proposal included a mix of cash and stock. “The deliberations remain ongoing, and there is no guarantee they
Mining
Mission Critical: Lithium's price vice explained
If you are holding onto lithium equities hoping for a repeat of the 2022 glory days - it’s time to reset your expectations. For anyone asking, "Is the lithium bull market back?" - the answer, as of right now, is an emphatic, bruising no. Yet fear not. What drove the lithium price in the past has now matured. Azzet’s Mission Critical is a weekly column that lays out the ebbs and flows around the critical minerals supply chains - from pricing, production, refinement and mergers & acquisitions, to manufacturing and consumer products. After peaking at over US$80,000 per tonne (t) a couple of years ago in a speculative bull market, battery-grade lithium carbonate is now trading at cyclical lows. Data from the Shanghai Metals Market shows prices hovering around $10,800/t - and that's an improvement over the past few months - with lithium hydroxide at ~$9,400/t. This pricing environment is not the result of failing demand - but of a supply glut. Analysts estimate the global surplus at 150,000-175,000t of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) this year. The lithium market is no longer being driven by speculation - it's been redefined by three new fundamentals: Operational efficiency (a company's position on the cost curve)Geop

Mining
China thaws export ban on gallium, germanium and antimony
China has lifted a nearly year-long ban on exports of gallium, germanium and antimony to the United States over the weekend, marking a further de-escalation of trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. The Chinese commerce ministry said on Sunday it will pause its export ban on these minerals and related end-use items for about one year, until 27 November 2026. The ban was first imposed in December 2024 in retaliation for U.S. export controls on high-bandwidth memory chips into China towards the end of the Biden administration. The U.S. considers all three minerals critical to its national security and economy. Gallium and germanium are both essential for semiconductors - the former is also used in advanced radar technology and the latter in infrared technology, fibre optic cables and solar cells. And antimony is widely used in military applications such as flame retardants and primers for ammunition. China dominates the production and refinement of these materials. According to consultancy Project Blue, China accounted for almost half of the world's mined antimony in 2023, nearly 60% of global refined germanium production and 99% of refined gallium output. This near-monopoly has left the U.S.
Mining
Are mineral sands masking Iluka’s rare earth assets?
While Iluka Resources (ASX: ILU) is best known for its mineral sands production, the market continues to ascribe insufficient value to the hidden strategic and financial assets embedded across its diversified portfolio. Given the tenuous nature of the near-term mineral sands outlook, it’s the ASX200 miners’ rare earths projects - still in the early stages of development – that brokers are more interested in. With the share price having shed 14% in the last month, the stock’s current market cap has fallen well under A$3 billion. At face value, the company trades well below the implied value of its tangible holdings alone – $1 billion in mineral sands inventory, $1.3 billion in rare earths concentrate feedstock -potentially greater than $2 billion Net Present Value - and a $450 million equity stake in Deterra Royalties (ASX: DRR). The market appears to be ascribing very little value to the core mineral sands business. However, brokers are increasingly positive on the company’s rare earths strategic plans to vertically integrate the rare earths business. Underpinning the company’s ambitions in the rare earths space is the development of Australia’s first fully integrated refinery of separated rare earth oxides at Il
Mining
Mission Critical: China truce a false sense of mineral security
For decades, the West happily outsourced critical parts of its industrial future to Beijing in exchange for cheap flat-screens and a quiet life. While Western governments were chasing phantom "end of history" dividends, China was methodically cornering key metal supply chains required to build a 21st-century economy. Azzet’s Mission Critical is a weekly column that lays out the ebbs and flows around the critical minerals supply chains - from pricing, production, refinement and mergers & acquisitions, to manufacturing and consumer products. Let's call this what it is: a direct, painful, and highly profitable consequence of a 20-year lapse in strategic thinking. Now, the bill has finally come due. China's export restrictions on gallium, germanium, antimony, and graphite are a calculated act of economic warfare. And since a ‘truce’ has been called by the United States and China over rare earths supply, market tension is now in the supporting cast: antimony, cobalt, graphite, and other strategic metals. This is the consequence of letting a primary geopolitical rival become the sole dealer for materials that run the entire Western economy and military. The problem has worsened. The IEA's Global Critical Minerals Outlook
Mining
Australia’s critical minerals boom faces harsh reality
While ASX-listed critical minerals stocks have been on a tear following the United States-Australia deal to jointly invest US$3 billion in aspiring projects, it’s back to reality time for investors quick to take bets on these stocks with their ears pinned back. To be sure, some of these stocks will go on to do great things and getting in relatively early on their growth story is smart. However, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), amongst others, has been quick to remind the market that, despite Australia being blessed with an abundance of rare earth (RE) resources, the road to riches within the critical minerals space is at best tricky. First, the good news: Australia has around a fifth of the world's known supply of lithium reserves, a little under a third (30%) of the world’s zircon reserves, around 13% of global tungsten reserves and has the fourth largest reserves of RE resources comprising 17 key elements. Given that these resources are considered vital to the next generation of advanced manufacturing, the digital economy, AI and data centres, it’s easy to conclude that Australia – already the world’s fourth largest producer of RE - is sitting pretty. Or to put it in the lyrical terms of former Australian Labo