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BHP copper output tops iron ore in milestone
The Big Australian has posted a milestone set of half-year numbers. For the first time since BHP created its copper segment in FY13, the red metal contributed the majority of group earnings - overtaking iron ore as the profit engine of the world's largest miner and officially signalling to the world the age of electrification.By the numbers:Underlying attributable profit rose 22% to US$6.2 billion for the six months ended 31 December 2025, in line with Visible Alpha consensus. EBITDA swelled 25% to $15.5 billion on a 58.4% margin - up seven percentage points on the prior corresponding period. Revenue advanced 11% to $27.9 billion, propelled by a 32% spike in average realised copper prices to $5.28 per pound (lb) and a 4% nudge higher in iron ore to $84.71 per wet metric tonne (wmt).Copper seizes the crownThe crossover to copper becoming king has been building for years, but two forces brought it to a head this half - record pricing and sustained volume growth. Copper EBITDA vaulted 59% to a record $8 billion on a 66% segment margin, while iron ore's $7.5 billion expanded a far more pedestrian 4%.Source: Azzet / BHPBHP has ratcheted copper output roughly 30% over four years, with FY26 group guidance now tightened upward to
Mining
Why GlenTinto remains the mining dream that won't wake up
Alas, the proposed US$260 billion mega merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore remains just a dream. It again promised to reshape global mining, but a decade-long courtship has repeatedly collapsed under the weight of antitrust exposure, valuation gaps, cultural clashes and ESG baggage. "Global miner Rio Tinto will not be taken over by rival Glencore because there is no value in it for shareholders and regulators will never let it happen," then-CEO Sam Walsh told reporters in late 2014. When talks were finally torched again in 2026, Rio's board reverted to the same core message: it could not land terms that delivered returns in a way that justified the complexity and downside. This piece traces the saga chronologically: from Glencore's first 2014 overture and Walsh's emphatic rejection, through a brutal downturn that made boards wary of blockbuster deals, to the latest cycle of 2024-26 negotiations driven by copper demand and the energy transition. Along the way, remarks from CEOs, chairmen and prominent sell-side voices show how each side viewed the tie-up as simultaneously logical and structurally unworkable. Where Rio saw a threat to its governance premium and ESG profile, Glencore saw a transformative path to re-r
Mining
Rio Tinto calls off Glencore merger talks
Rio Tinto has formally walked away from talks with rival Glencore to create the world’s largest mining company because they could not agree on terms that would deliver value for its shareholders. Rio Tinto said it had assessed the proposed transaction but concluded the terms under discussion failed to meet its investment and capital allocation criteria. “Further to the announcement of 8 January 2026, Rio Tinto confirms that it is no longer considering a possible merger or other business combination with Glencore,” the company said in a statement. “Rio Tinto has determined that it could not reach an agreement that would deliver value to its shareholders.” Rio Tinto said it assessed the opportunity and came to this view through the “disciplined lens” set out at its Capital Markets Day in December 2025 – prioritising long-term value and delivering leading shareholder returns. The announcement ended weeks of market talk about a possible combination of two of the world’s largest diversified mining and commodities groups. Glencore also confirmed the talks had ended after they were unable to reach an agreement on the structure and valuation of a potential combination. The Swiss-based company said the terms proposed b
Mining
US govt takes stake in USA Rare Earth, shares jump
USA Rare Earth has said the United States Department of Commerce will take a stake of up to 16% in the company, sending shares up 7.9%. The Department of Commerce will supply USA Rare Earth with US$1.3 billion in loans and $277 million in federal funding, according to its letter of intent. It will receive 16.1 million shares in common stock and 17.6 million in warrants. “This landmark collaboration with the U.S. Government represents a transformative step in USAR's mission to secure and grow a resilient, independent domestic rare earth value chain," said USA Rare Earth CEO Barbara Humpton. “The LOI [letter of intent] with the U.S. Government reflects the strategic importance of USAR's mine-to-magnet platform and its role in closing the rare earth element and critical mineral supply gap for essential industries that underpin U.S. national security, including semiconductors, other critical technologies, and advanced manufacturing,” the company wrote. The U.S. government’s stake would represent 8% to 16% of USA Rare Earth’s ownership, according to a regulatory filing. Under the terms of the letter, the company would have to meet conditions such as obtaining memorandums of understanding with semiconductor end or midstre
Mining
Unearthing bets-on-optimism within commodities in 2026
While gold might be the definitive ‘bet on fear’ again this year, as mum and dad investors buckle in for another rocky ride, some institutional investors see a handful of natural resources as a way to bet on optimism. When it comes to commodities, the market continues to have an unhealthy preoccupation with gold. In its 2026 Commodities Outlook, Goldman Sachs identified gold as the "single favourite long commodity" in the commodity complex. However, if you’re willing to drill down beyond the precious yellow metal, there’s a growing cohort of institutional money willing to place strong bets on pockets of opportunity lurking within a handful of natural resources. While Ninety One is overweight in precious metals, at-weight in base metals and bulk, it’s underweight in energy and agriculture. However, the fund manager reminds the market that each segment saw wide variation in asset quality, management strength, operational resilience and political risk. Overall, the fund manager expects copper to remain another standout this year - after strong gains in 2025 – due to tight supply and with robust demand being linked to its key role in electrification and AI. “Against that backdrop, we think copper-exposed equiti

Mining
MISSION CRITICAL: Gold fuels record M&A
The global mining industry is bracing for a fundamental restructuring, as two of its largest players move towards a monumental consolidation based on sky high gold prices and a shared belief that copper will be a key commodity and driving force into the next decade of industrialisation. Azzet’s Mission Critical is a weekly column that lays out the ebbs and flows around critical minerals supply chains - from pricing, production, refinement and mergers & acquisitions, to manufacturing and consumer products. The potential combination of Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) (US$145 billion) and Glencore Plc (LON: GLN) ($55 billion) - a deal that would create a behemoth with an enterprise value of an eye-whopping $250 billion - stands to be the largest mining transaction ever seen. It would also create the world's largest miner, pipping BHP's (ASX: BHP) current market capitalisation of $242 billion. "The first potential deal of 2026, a merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore, would be the biggest mining deal ever," Morningstar analysts wrote in a note. “This will likely have a domino effect on other large-scale miners, looking for opportunities to expand their mining portfolio in fear of being left behind.”Decades in the makingOn 8 Januar
Mining
BlueSteel confirms SGH and Steel Dynamics proposal
Steelmaker BlueScope has confirmed speculation it received an unsolicited indicative takeover proposal from two companies at a price of A$30 (US$20.10) per share. The proposal was made by SGH Limited (ASX: SGH) and U.S. steelmaker Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ: STLD) in a deal that would see SGH acquire all of Bluescope’s shares and then on-sell its North American business to Steel Dynamics. “The Board of BlueScope is committed to optimising value for its shareholders across all of its businesses, and continues to regularly assess all options for accelerating the realisation of this value,” BlueScope said in an ASX release. The offer values BlueScope at 24% more than its sharemarket value at the start of this week. BlueScope also confirmed that it has pushed back on multiple proposals from Steel Dynamics since 2024. “These approaches were rejected as they significantly undervalued BlueScope and its future prospects, and presented significant execution risk in relation to regulatory outcomes,” the company said. SGH also confirmed that potential deal in an ASX release. In the SGH media release, the company said the deal would be worth A$13.2 billion. BlueScope’s North American operations generate almost half of its
Mining
Mission Critical: Chile creates new strategic metals giant
In what seems to be the final big M&A deal of 2025, a long-awaited partnership between Chilean state copper producer Codelco and lithium miner SQM was officially signed last week, resulting in the creation of a new entity named NovaAndino Litio SpA. Azzet’s Mission Critical is a weekly column that lays out the ebbs and flows around critical minerals supply chains - from pricing, production, refinement and mergers & acquisitions, to manufacturing and consumer products. The landmark M&A creates a new state-backed global critical minerals powerhouse, as the deal effectively hands majority control of the Salar de Atacama to the Chilean state via Codelco. In return for ceding control, SQM has secured its operational rights in the region until 2060, extending its tenure well beyond the previous expiration dates. Codelco remains in a tight race with mining heavyweight BHP (ASX: BHP) as the world's biggest producer of the red metal, churning out ~1.33 million tonnes (mt) of fine copper in 2024 and on track to deliver the same this year. SQM is no slouch either, having delivered record lithium production volumes of roughly 210,000t of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) over the same period, with similar guidance for 2025.
Mining
Mission Critical: It's Westralia's time to mine
Well, the ink is barely dry on the federal government’s $12 billion cheque for the Henderson Defence Precinct, but the race for industrial dominance in Australia's West has effectively already been critically - and minerally, won. Azzet’s Mission Critical is a weekly column that lays out the ebbs and flows around the critical minerals supply chains - from pricing, production, refinement and mergers & acquisitions, to manufacturing and consumer products. As the eastern seaboard continues to navigate a landscape of sticky inflation and stagnating productivity, Western Australia has quietly decoupled from the national malaise. Market data released this week confirms that the lithium price correction has bottomed out, with export volumes surging in November as Chinese refineries scramble to secure feedstock for 2026. It's a resurgence in the minerals cycle - combined with the solidification of sovereign defence contracts - that's created a unique economic moat around the state. The narrative has shifted from the old cyclical resources playbook to structural growth, something that the rest of the country cannot replicate. And Perth, according to JLL, is the net winner on a global scale.Credit: JLLFrom quarry to chemical