Antarctica, once the domain of scientists and explorers, is fast becoming a tourist hotspot.
A recently published study warns that annual visitor numbers could skyrocket to 452,000 by 2033 — nearly four times current levels.
Researchers argue that without intervention, the fragile ecosystem could suffer irreversible damage.
Proposed solutions include visitor caps and tourism taxes, but tour operators insist existing regulations are sufficient.
The surge in Antarctic tourism is driven by bucket-list appeal.
Despite its remoteness and high costs, the continent has seen a dramatic rise in visitors — from 8,000 in the mid-1990s to 125,000 in 2023-24.
The study, published in the Journal of Sustainable Tourism, used historical data to project future trends. If accurate, the forecast raises urgent questions about how to balance accessibility with environmental protection.
Tourism activities — kayaking, polar plunges, helicopter rides, and camping — bring economic benefits but also pose risks. Experts warn of wildlife disturbance, pollution, invasive species, and black carbon emissions.
The study highlights concerns that tourism, combined with climate change, could trigger habitat degradation and biodiversity loss.
Operators, however, point to strict guidelines already in place, including ship size limits, biosecurity protocols, and wildlife-watching rules.
Researchers from QUT, UTAS, CSIRO, and international institutions propose additional measures to prevent a tipping point.
Their recommendations include capping visitor numbers in sensitive areas, taxing high-impact activities like helicopter flights, and tightening tour company certifications.
Lead author Dr. Valeria Senigaglia stresses the need for global instruments to safeguard Antarctica’s ecosystem while allowing sustainable tourism growth.
The challenge? International consensus.
Antarctic Treaty nations must agree on updated regulations, a process often bogged down by competing interests.
The issue will take centre stage at the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting in Italy next month. Investors and stakeholders in the tourism sector will watch closely — because in Antarctica, the stakes are as high as the icebergs.
