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An ill wind: US LNG to win big from protracted Iran war
While several Gulf nations, along with India, have declared force majeure on oil and gas shipments since the Iran war started – a legal move that excuses them from supply obligation due to events beyond their control – United States LNG exporters could be major beneficiaries of global disruption. Analysis by Energy Flux estimates that U.S. LNG exporters could generate about $4 billion in windfall profits in the first month of the disruption alone. The surge of U.S. LNG exporters is currently experiencing follows a complete halt on 2 March 2026 in Qatari LNG production, which typically accounts for around 20% of global supply. Gas prices soared immediately following the country’s halt of gas production, and global gas markets are expected to experience shortages for weeks, if not longer.Highest bidderInterestingly, U.S. producers – which exported around 108 million metric tons of LNG last year – don’t have the capacity to increase LNG production beyond current levels; they’re currently maxed out. However, given that their customer contracts don’t have fixed destinations - a unique feature of the U.S. LNG industry - they have the ability to reroute volume to where the demand is greatest. In other words, while U.S. LNG
Energy
Beijing chooses trade stability over Tehran
Beijing is the biggest buyer of Iranian crude and stands to lose billions from the Strait of Hormuz closure - yet it has barely lifted a finger since Operation Epic Fury began. The reason was in Paris this weekend, where U.S. and Chinese economic chiefs are currently trying to keep a fragile trade truce from unravelling. Top U.S. and Chinese economic officials sat down in Paris on Sunday to work through the next phase of their trade truce, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng meeting at OECD headquarters to negotiate on tariffs, rare earths, soybeans and export controls. The talks are meant to clear the way for President Donald Trump's visit to Beijing at the end of March, and on paper, they look like routine great-power housekeeping. The timing, however, is anything but routine. The discussions come as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz - a waterway through which China receives roughly half of its oil imports and nearly a third of its liquefied natural gas. In the two and a half weeks since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, Beijing's response has amounted to diplomatic boilerplate - a call for an emergency UN Security Council ses
Energy
US eases sanctions on Russian oil
The United States has eased sanctions on Russian oil and petroleum in an attempt to curb the economic impact of the U.S.-Iran war. U.S. Treasury Scott Bessent said this would be a temporary measure to "promote stability in global energy markets" during the war. The move will last until 11 April. "This narrowly tailored, short-term measure applies only to oil already in transit and will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government," Bessent said. In the past, the U.S. has banned countries from buying oil from Russia, even going as far as to impose hefty tariffs on countries like India that refused to comply with the sanctions. This comes as attacks on energy and infrastructure in the Gulf and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz rocked global energy markets. Around 25% of the world’s oil travels through the strait, and the war has caused the price of crude oil to surpass US$100 per barrel. Stock markets also fell after three more cargo vessels were hit in the Gulf and Iran’s new supreme leader vowed to keep blocking the strait. Authorities have taken the issue into their own hands. This includes the International Energy Agency (IEA), which said it would release a record 400 million barr
Energy
US may waive shipping law to ease impact of oil surge
The United States is considering waiving a law that requires U.S. ships to be used to move goods between its ports, in a bid to ease the impact of surging oil prices. Under the proposed Jones Act exemption, the law would be waived for 30 days for vessels moving oil, gasoline, diesel, liquefied natural gas, and fertiliser, Bloomberg reported. “In the interest of national defense, the White House is considering waiving the Jones Act for a limited period of time to ensure vital energy products and agricultural necessities are flowing freely to U.S. ports,” said White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt. “This action has not been finalized.” A waiver could be announced as soon as today, per Reuters. Oil prices have soared amid the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, where around 20% of global oil flows would usually transit. Iran’s newly-chosen Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said in a written statement today that the country would continue to block the strait as a “tool to pressure the enemy”. Its military has also said the U.S. should “get ready for oil to be $200 a barrel”. In the U.S., national average gasoline prices rose to US$3.598 per gallon today, compared with $
Energy
Japan, Korea and Thailand stuck in LNG spiral: IEEFA
Asia keeps reaching for more gas. Someone should probably tell them how that's been going. Here's a fun game… Take the world's biggest energy-importing region, subject it to repeated geopolitical supply shocks, watch prices detonate, and wait for policymakers to respond by locking in more of the same fuel that caused the problem in the first place. Rinse and repeat. That, in broad strokes, is the story the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) has just documented across Japan, South Korea and Thailand in its March 2026 Asia energy research roundup. The IEEFA's core argument is simple and genuinely hard to argue with: Building more gas infrastructure doesn't fix exposure to global gas price shocks, it deepens it. It makes for pretty uncomfortable bedtime reading if you're an energy security hawk, or, you know, a taxpayer in any of those countries footing the bill for imported fuel at crisis prices.Source: IEEFAIran lights the match, Asia buys more petrolThe Iran conflict has been doing what Middle East supply disruptions always do: sending energy markets into a spin and making the renewables argument look increasingly obvious. IEEFA analysts put it plainly - fiscal backstops and monetary

Energy
IEA releases oil reserves amid Iran war supply turmoil
The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release 400 million barrels of oil to address major supply disruptions caused by the Iran war, with the United States agreeing to release 172 million barrels. These barrels from IEA members’ emergency reserves will reach the market “over a timeframe that is appropriate to the national circumstances of each Member country,” the IEA said. This is the largest release in the organisation’s history. “The 32 Member countries of the International Energy Agency unanimously agreed today to make 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves available to the market to address disruptions in oil markets stemming from the war in the Middle East,” wrote the IEA. “The oil market challenges we are facing are unprecedented in scale, therefore I am very glad that IEA Member countries have responded with an emergency collective action of unprecedented size,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol. “Oil markets are global so the response to major disruptions needs to be global too.” According to U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, the U.S. will begin releasing barrels next week, and it will take around 120 days to complete deliveries. The U.S. has 415 million barrels in its stra
Energy
Iran warns oil could hit US$200 a barrel
Iran has told the world to prepare for oil to hit US$200 a barrel as its forces attacked merchant ships in the blockaded Gulf. "Get ready for oil ‌to be $200 a barrel because ‌the oil price depends on regional security, which ⁠you have destabilised," Ebrahim Zolfaqari, a spokesperson for Iran's military command, said in comments addressed to the U.S. Following joint strikes by the U.S. and Israel, Iran has retaliated by firing at Israel and targets across the Middle East on Wednesday. While Israel’s Defence Minister, Israel Katz, said the operation "will continue without any time limit, as long as required, until we achieve all objectives and win the campaign", Trump has tried to reassure markets that the war will be over soon. Trump told Axios that there was “practically nothing left” to target in Iran. However, there are still a few signs of let-up on the ground or that ships can sail safely through the Strait of Hormuz. Around a fifth of the world’s oil travels through the channel, and the war has caused the worst disruption to energy supply since the oil shocks of the 1970s. Recently, the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil to try to rein in crude prices. This
Energy
IEA members discuss oil stockpiles amid Iran war
The International Energy Agency (IEA) held an emergency meeting to assess the situation in the Middle East and discuss a possible release of oil stockpiles. IEA executive director Fatih Birol said the 32 members would “assess the current security of supply and market conditions” to inform their decision. Birol also made it clear that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created “significant and growing risks for the market”. Around 20% of the world’s petroleum consumption passed through the Strait before the war in the Middle East broke out. “We discussed all the available options, including making IEA emergency oil stocks available to the market,” Birol said. “IEA Member countries currently hold over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil stocks, with a further 600 million barrels of industry stocks held under government obligation.” IEA members are advanced economies primarily in North America, Europe, and Northeast Asia. While oil prices reached an all-time high of nearly US$120 per barrel earlier this week, they have fallen more than 11% as the market anticipates a release of oil stocks. The price is now around US$90 per barrel. G7 members also met earlier this week to discuss energy supplies, but
Energy
S.Korea to impose fuel price cap; first time in decades
South Korea has imposed a fuel price cap for the first time in over three decades after oil prices skyrocketed due to the war in Iran. President Lee Jae Myung said the government would “swiftly introduce” a fuel cap price and that Seoul would explore ways to diversify its energy import sources. “We must swiftly introduce and boldly implement a maximum price system for petroleum products, which have recently seen excessive price increases,” Lee said. South Korean media outlet Yonhap said that the average price of gasoline in Seoul crossed 1,9000 won (US$1.28) per litre on Friday, for the first time in four years, before rising further to 1,945 won on Sunday. “We need corresponding emergency measures. We should cooperate with strategic partners to swiftly identify alternative supply lines that do not transit the Strait of Hormuz,” Lee said. South Korea imports nearly every barrel for consumers and is implementing the price cap as an act of pre-emptive self-defence. Lee also said that the conflict in the Middle East was placing “a considerable burden on our economy, which relies heavily on global trade and energy imports”. The South Korean President also warned that the government’s existing 100 trillion won fina