The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) has agreed to keep its oil output quotas unchanged for 2026, with its major producers set to pause production hikes for the year’s first quarter amid the threat of oversupply.
The bloc will also develop a mechanism to determine countries’ maximum sustainable production capacity for their 2027 production baseline.
Eight OPEC+ countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, will halt output hikes for the first three months of 2026. “The eight participating countries reaffirmed their decision on 2 November 2025 to pause production increments in January, February, and March 2026 due to seasonality,” OPEC+ wrote.
“The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to continue pausing or reverse the additional voluntary production adjustments.”
OPEC+ had previously agreed to raise its output every month since April, lifting production targets by roughly 2.9 million barrels per day over the period. The bloc will hike output in December by 137,000 barrels per day, it said last month.
Maximum sustainable production capacity assessments will reportedly take place between January and September next year, with countries under major sanctions like Russia being assessed by a separate company.
Russia’s oil supply has been heavily affected by Western sanctions, and by Ukrainian airstrikes on oil refining and export facilities. U.S. and Ukrainian officials held another round of talks to negotiate an end to Russia’s invasion today.
Economists expect a surplus in the oil market in 2026, according to a Reuters poll last week, which could be in the 0.5–4.2 million barrels per day range.
Respondents projected Brent crude oil prices would average US$62.23 per barrel in 2026. The average Brent crude price in 2025 has been $68.80, and has fallen by 15% over the year to date.
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