Azzet reports on three stocks with price moving updates today.
Treasury Wines Estates tumbles on earnings downgrade ~
If you’ve been following the recent misfortunes of embattled winemaker, Treasury Wines Estates (ASX: TWE), then today’s investor update should have come as no surprise.
However, the market appears to have over-reacted to this morning’s investor update and outlook for FY26, which saw the company’s shares fall 17% at the open, but pared losses to 9.5% by 2pm AEDT (3 am GMT)
Given that much of today’s update had already been nuanced to the market, today’s sell-down appears to suggest investors have yet to fully register the headwinds facing this stock.
Given that medium-term improvement in trading conditions is unlikely under current trends, the market is clearly fearful that the next market update will include more substantial downgrades to full-year consensus earnings.
Meanwhile, what the market clearly fixated on today was the company’s 1H FY26 earnings guidance, which was significantly below expectations at $225–235 million, a 31% downgrade to consensus.
As expected, the Americas business underperformed, with earnings of $40 million versus RBC’s $84 million forecast, while synergies associated with the winemaker’s American luxury wine brand, DAOU Vineyards, were cut from US$30 million to US$20 million.
Penfolds also fell short by 11%, and while China depletions were up 21% on the previous period, growth appears to be slowing relative to FY26 expectations.
The Collective division also underperformed, reporting $25 million in earnings versus an $52 million forecast.
But despite the near-term headwinds, Penfolds continues to deliver depletions growth in several markets, due in part to products like Bin 389 and Bin 407.
In addition to flagging deteriorating trading conditions in key markets, the U.S. and China – where customer inventory levels are currently above optimal levels - management tried to explain what it was going to do to address these issues.
Firstly, management flagged plans to reduce customer inventory holdings in the U.S. and China and significantly restrict shipments that are contributing to parallel imports in China – which have been disrupting pricing for its flagship Penfolds brand.
Overall, the winemaker plans to cut down distributor inventories by about 700,000 cases across the two markets over the next two years.
This strategy is expected to temporarily increase gearing to 2.5x at 1H FY26, above the target 1.5–2.0x range for around two years.
While management expects these measures to protect brand equity and support healthier sales channels, there are no illusions that it will take time.
The company plans major annual cost reductions, dividend cuts, non-core asset sales, and capex review and has reaffirmed the cancellation of its $200 million share buyback.
Commenting on today’s market update, new CEO Sam Fischer told the market the business was entering a transformation phase, with a group-wide cost and operating overhaul targeting $100 million a year in savings, although most benefits will not flow until FY27 and beyond.
“Maintaining the strength of our brands and the health of their respective sales channels is of critical importance to our Management team and our Board as we navigate through the current environment,” he said.
“Our powerful portfolio of brands, leading market positions in attractive growth markets, unparalleled supply chain and highly engaged, capable team are all considerable strengths that position us strongly to deliver sustainable, profitable growth over the long-term.”
Treasury Wines Estates has a market cap of $3.9 billion; the share price is down 57% for the year and down 12% in the last week.
The stock’s shares appear to be in a long-term bearish trend, confirmed by multiple indicators.
Consensus is Moderate Buy.
Metal Powder Works rallies on partnership agreement with Austal USA
Shares in Metal Powder Works (ASX: MPW) were trading 14% higher after the Pittsburgh-based company specialising in high-quality metal powders for additive manufacturing and advanced applications announced a partnership agreement with shipbuilder Austal USA, which, in its early stages, will focus on R&D.
While Austal USA is already a customer of Metal, this agreement will leverage the company’s DirectPowder Process to develop custom metal powder specifications for Austal USA’s additive manufacturing operations, particularly for the U.S. Navy’s Additive Manufacturing Center of Excellence.
The collaboration positions Metal within a strategic U.S. Navy supply chain initiative, enhancing its market presence amid growing Department of Defence investments in additive manufacturing.
The agreement is seen as a precursor to a potential commercial offtake agreement, which would establish ongoing powder supply terms, hence strengthening MPW’s role in the defence manufacturing sector.
Commenting on today’s market update, Metal’s CEO, John Barnes, told the market that this partnership positions the company’s DirectPowder technology within a strategic naval supply chain initiative at a time when the U.S Department of Defense is making significant investments in additive manufacturing capabilities.
“With both companies manufacturing in the United States, we are well positioned to support the domestic defence industrial base and look forward to expanding our collaboration as Austal scales additive manufacturing across its naval programs,” he said.
Metal rose 176% in its first month on the ASX, having made its IPO on March 11 after raising $10 million at 20 cents per share through a reverse merger with formerly listed K-TIG Limited.
To the uninitiated, the company has developed its patented DirectPowder process, which offers a new approach to powder production in additive manufacturing.
The technology has already been tested across various methods like 3D printing and laser fusion, with MPW counting big names like the US Department of Defense, Westinghouse, and Toho Titanium as customers.
Metal Powder Works Limited has a market cap of $215 million; the share price is up 1,268% in the last year but is still trading around 60% lower than its $4.90 all-time high reached mid-September.
Consensus does not cover this stock.
Nanoveu rises after advancing 16nm edge-AI chip to final pre-fab stage
Shares in Nanoveu (ASX: NVU) were up by around 2.3% after the technology innovator specialising in advanced semiconductor, visualisation, and materials science reported that its wholly owned subsidiary EMASS has achieved a major milestone in the development of its next-generation 16nm ECS-DoT AIoT system-on-chip (SoC).
The 16nm ECS-DoT SoC has now completed front-end design, synthesis and physical design for its 16-nanometre ECS-DoT edge-AI system-on-chip, with the project now entering final GDS sign-off ahead of tape-out and fabrication at TSMC.
The next-generation SoC unifies wireless connectivity, expanded memory, enhanced AI acceleration and advanced low-power capabilities into a single, ultra-efficient edge intelligence platform.
Commenting on today’s update, Dr Mohamed Sabry Aly, founder of EMASS and director of Nanoveu, told the market that this major milestone reinforces EMASS’s commitment to delivering cutting-edge, energy-efficient AI silicon designed from the ground up for real-world deployment.
“Reaching the final stages of GDS for our 16nm ECS-DoT SoC is not only a validation of our Atoms-to-Apps design philosophy, but it also marks an important step towards bringing the next generation of edge intelligence to our partners and customers,” he said.
Nanoveu will provide further updates as ECS-DoT progresses through final GDS sign-off, tape-out, fabrication and subsequent silicon validation.
Key highlights to be discussed during tomorrow's investor webinar include:
- Tape-out of New Integrated Circuit on TSMC’s 16nm FinFET.
- Recently announced collaborations with Arrow Electronics (NASDAQ: ARW) and Semtech (NASDAQ: SMTC).
- ECS-DoT Drone Program.
- Sales network establishment for the ECS-DoT 22nm and upcoming 16nm Edge-AI solutions.
Earlier this month, the share price rallied after EMASS told the market it was collaborating with Semtech Corporation on the integration of cutting-edge semiconductor technology to bring long-range, battery-efficient intelligence to the industrial and Internet of Things markets.
The project will combine EMASS’s ultra-low-power ++ECS-DoT edge-AI system on chip (SoC)++ capabilities with Semtech’s LoRa transceivers to support a new class of battery-efficient, intelligent devices.
It aims to make it easier for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to deploy AI at the extreme edge – even in power and bandwidth-constrained environments – by bringing sensing, inference, and communication together in a tightly-integrated platform.
To the uninitiated, Nanoveu offers products like EyeFly3D, a platform for glasses-free 3D experiences, and Nanoshield, a self-disinfecting film with antiviral and antimicrobial properties.
Nanoveu focuses on providing ultra-low-power, AI-driven processing solutions for smart devices, IoT applications, and 3D content transformation, positioning itself as a key player in the 3D content, AI, and edge computing markets.
The new chip integrates Bluetooth Low Energy directly on-chip, expanded SRAM, a dedicated object-detection accelerator, a hardware floating-point unit and a fine-grained power-management architecture designed for always-on, ultra-low-power applications.
The milestone marks a transition from design execution to silicon realisation and positions EMASS among a small group of developers delivering advanced-node edge-AI silicon, with post-fabrication validation and benchmarking planned once first silicon is received.
Nanoveu has a market cap of $86 million; the share price is up 186% in one year and up 14% in the last month.
The stock is in a long-term bullish pattern confirmed by multiple indicators.
Specifically, a 5-day moving average of the stock price is above the 50-day moving average, and the 200-day moving average is trending higher.
However, the 20-day moving average is falling; while it's too early to predict the long-term implications of this selloff, it may only be a correction within a continuing bullish move.
Consensus doesn’t cover this stock.
This article does not constitute financial or product advice. You should consider independent advice before making financial decisions.
