Europe could face fuel shortages within weeks as disruptions from the Middle East conflict tighten global energy supplies, Wael Sawan, chief executive of Shell, warned, signalling a potential escalation of the energy crisis that has already forced consumption cuts across parts of Asia.
Speaking at the CERAWeek conference in Houston, Sawan said the impact of the conflict - now in its fourth week - was moving west through global markets and could reach Europe as early as April.
“Countries cannot have national security without energy security,” he said, urging governments to prepare contingency measures including demand reduction, increased storage and coordinated purchasing.
The warning underscores a rapidly tightening supply outlook driven by the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint that handles about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows.
Disruptions there have already reduced the availability of refined fuels, with jet fuel shortages emerging first and diesel expected to follow, according to Sawan’s remarks.
European governments are now assessing whether to revive demand-side interventions similar to those deployed during the 2022 energy crisis.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has urged countries to cut consumption through measures such as remote work policies, lower speed limits and increased public transport use, according to its recent guidance.
Supply competition is intensifying as Asian buyers outbid European importers for cargoes, particularly from the U.S., now the world’s largest LNG exporter.
Analysts at JPMorgan said the disruption has already translated into “outright shortages” across parts of Asia, while oil and gas prices have surged by roughly 40% and 60% respectively over the past month.
The economic risks are also widening.
Morgan Stanley warned in a recent outlook that sustained high energy prices could push the United Kingdom into recession by late 2026, with higher inflation likely to prompt tighter monetary policy.
Brent crude has traded near US$100 a barrel, with peaks approaching US$120 earlier in March, levels that traders say could trigger demand destruction.
Meanwhile, government officials have so far downplayed the likelihood of immediate shortages.
The UK government said it was monitoring the situation and maintained that supply remained “diverse and resilient”, while industry sources described physical shortages as a “worst-case scenario” dependent on a prolonged conflict extending into the Northern Hemisphere summer.
Nevertheless, the scale of the disruption has drawn comparisons with previous global energy shocks.
The conflict has damaged infrastructure across the Middle East and curtailed shipping flows, raising concerns about prolonged supply constraints.
Executives, including Patrick Pouyanné, chairman and CEO of TotalEnergies, have warned the fallout could extend beyond energy into broader supply chains, affecting sectors from semiconductors to agriculture.
Sawan said Shell was working with governments to manage the crisis but indicated that policy responses may need to escalate if market conditions deteriorate further.
“It is a ripple effect,” he said, tracing the progression of shortages from South Asia through to Europe.
