At face value, it’s easy to conclude that the growing cadre of "card carrying" member states that belong to the BRICS block share anti-western sentiment and a genuine desire to "stick it" to United States trading alliances.
However, on closer analysis nothing could be further from the truth.
What’s increasingly evident within Indonesia’s recent addition to the BRICS nations is that all member states by no means walk in lock-step when it comes to either ideology or economic outlook.
Growing suspicion over the bi-polar nature of the two very different camps joining BRICS also raises questions about what exactly BRICS is and why it was formed.
A fractious group
While BRICS was born out of the non-aligned movement of the 1960s cold-war era, it is yet to galvanise as a formal organisation or an agreement-driven trading bloc.
It’s hard to talk about BRICS without noticing the vast ideological differences between two distinct camps.
On the one side, six of the BRICS nations are authoritarian regimes, led by Beijing and Moscow that are more overtly anti-western in their outlook.
However, on the flipside there are democracies like India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia that want to take a more middle line and maximise their diplomatic freedom.
As a result, Indonesia – the first Southeast Asian country with full BIRCS membership - is having to carefully straddle both internal and external challenges associated with its recent BRICS membership.
Does BRICS come with too much baggage
Questions are also starting to surface as to whether BRICS membership for the likes of Indonesia simply comes with too much baggage – including a gnarly downside and few real tangible gains.
Whether other Southeast Asian countries follow Indonesia into BRICS may depend on whether the likes of China and Russia force them to choose sides within an increasingly bifurcated world.
Assuming Indonesia as a BRICS member gravitates unwittingly towards China’s orbit, it may compromise the plans of newly inaugurated President Prabowo Subianto to play a greater leadership role in championing the Global South.
Given Prabowo’s plans to catapult Indonesia into one of the fastest-growing developing nations, he will need to walk a more moderate line that either Beijing or Moscow may be comfortable with.
Too many masters
This suggests that while Prabowo wants to leverage Indonesia’s domestic ambitions through BRICS membership – through a multi-aligned foreign policy - its larger counterparts in the bloc may have other plans.
According to a statement from Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry, known as Kemlu, joining BRICS “reflects Indonesia's increasing active role in global issues” as well as Prabowo’s desire to “grow Indonesia beyond its role as Southeast Asia's natural leader".
However, what remains to be seen is whether Indonesia can juggle its commitments to BRICS along with its obligations within ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and its existing relationships with Western nations like the U.S. and the EU.
As a conduit between developed and developing nations, Prabowo wants to be present in as many forums as possible and forge a path of friendship with all countries.
This approach may put Prabowo at odds with Russia and China.
Could Indonesia leave BRICS behind?
While none of the BRICS countries are currently members of the OECD, Indonesia plans to be a full member within three years.
Indonesia is also looking for a closer association with the Quad alliance, a diplomatic partnership between Australia, India, Japan, and the U.S. committed to supporting an open, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific.
Indonesia is also seeking to play a greater role in other multilateral agreements, including its trilateral with India and Australia.
Interestingly, Indonesia has also set the ambitious goal of achieving 8% annual GDP growth, which at current rates would leave most global economies, including China behind.
With Indonesia’s membership, the BRICS now represent around half of the world’s population and 39% of global GDP in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP terms) compared to the G7’s 29%.
Will BRICS benefits stack up?
By being a full member of BRICS, Indonesia is clearly planning to play a greater role in shaping its agenda on issues like climate change, energy transition, food security, development financing, and digital innovation — all areas in which Prabowo seeks to assert greater influence.
Meanwhile, at a more grassroots level, some Indonesian analysts expect BRICS membership to provide access to new low-cost financing through the New Development Bank (NDB), while reducing its reliance on traditional financial institutions.
China aside, BRICS membership may also see Indonesia move closer to Russia’s orbit, with the latter having already offered discounted oil.
However, given that China – which comprises half of BRICS' combined GDP - is already the country’s largest trading partner, it remains to be seen what tangible trade benefits BRICS membership can bring Indonesia.
Bridging internal divides
Given the baggage associated with joining BRICS, some Southeast Asia observers have framed BRICS membership as merely another way for Indonesia to cement its relationships with the West - which will look to the country’s industrial metals to support its green transition.
Meanwhile, the jury will remain out on how well positioned Indonesia is to bridge internal divides within BRICS.
Hardliners suggest Iran’s membership last year only entrenches the BRICS persona as an adversary of the West.
If Indonesia finds itself stretching its resources too thin trying to manage its commitments to BRICS, while also fulfilling its de-facto leadership role within ASEAN – one of them may have to go.
