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Inflation

Inflation
Australian inflation jumps to 3.8% in December
Australia’s inflation rate rose to 3.8% in the 12 months to the end of December from 3.4% a month earlier, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Trimmed mean inflation, which measures the underlying increase in consumer prices, lifted to 3.3% from 3.2% over the same period, the ABS said in a media release. The headline rate was above market expectations of 3.6% but broadly in line with forecasts of an underlying rate of 3.3%, which are in turn above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2–3 % target range. ABS Head of Prices Statistics Michelle Marquardt said the largest contributor to annual inflation in December was housing, up 5.5%, followed by food and non-alcoholic beverages, up 3.4%, and recreation and culture, which rose 4.4%. This data will be crucial in determining whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raises interest rates at its next meeting in February, coming as it does after stronger-than-expected employment data earlier this month. The chances of the official cash interest rate being lifted from 3.60% to 3.85% were rated at 58% yesterday by the RBA Rate Tracker, which is based on Australian Securities Exchange 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures prices. In the three months to 31 De
Inflation
US inflation rises in Nov, says Fed's preferred gauge
United States inflation rose in November, according to the Federal Reserve’s preferred metric, moving away from the Fed’s 2% target. The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index climbed 0.2% in November, with both headline and core inflation up 2.8% year-over-year. This was in line with Dow Jones forecasts. The Fed’s long-term 2% inflation target is measured according to the PCE index, rather than the consumer price index (CPI). “The PCE index is constructed in a way that accounts for how Americans are spending their money at a given time and more quickly adapts to changes in spending patterns,” per the Board of Governors. In October, the PCE index rose 2.7% year-over-year and 0.2% on a monthly basis. October’s data was released alongside November’s due to the 43-day government shutdown. “Missing CPI data were derived from the September and November releases, meaning the month-on-month changes in the PCE offered little value,” wrote ANZ analysts. “Given shutdown-related data issues and after consecutive 25bp cuts at the past three meetings, we expect the Fed will pause at its January meeting next week.” Services PCE inflation was up 3.4% year-over-year in November, while goods inflation increased by 1.4
Inflation
Australia CPI set to rise in 2026: UN forecast
While Australia has surfaced reasonably unscathed from recent United States tariff shocks, this soft landing relative to other countries has come at a price. At least, that’s the conclusion of the United Nations' latest World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 report, which has a fairly sobering outlook for local inflation. The estimated average tariff rate for Australia stood at 8.9% — reflecting a low International Emergency Economic Powers Act reciprocal tariff baseline rate of 10% — with the country’s exports to the U.S., like precious metals and gold, being exempt from tariffs. Beyond the relatively benign tariff impact, the UN report also highlighted easing of monetary policies and "expansionary" fiscal measures in Australia, which have contributed to an economic rebound amid heightened uncertainty and persistent global trade tensions. According to the UN, the Australian economy is expected to experience GDP growth of 2.2% in 2026 — after nudging 1.8% in 2025 — and 2.4% in 2027. While that’s encouraging, consumer price inflation — which slowed to an estimated 2.6% in 2025 from 3.2% in 2024 — is projected to rise to 3.0% in 2026, reflecting higher expected services inflation following persistently strong wage g
Inflation
China's inflation reaches its highest level in three years
China’s annual consumer price inflation accelerated to its highest rate in three years during December, while the full-year rate slumped to its lowest level in 16 years. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the December consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.8% from the same month in 2024. According to Reuters, this was in line with analysts' expectations and a jump from the 0.7% increase in November. The rise was primarily driven by food prices, especially fresh vegetables and beef, which grew 18.2% and 9.2% respectively. However, pork prices fell 14.6% and prices of gold jewellery surged 68.5%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile prices of food and energy, increased 1.2% year over year in December, unchanged from the month prior. Despite this, the 2025 inflation gauge was flat, missing its official target of around 2%, signalling that Beijing’s stimulus measures implemented so far, including a consumer goods trade-in program, have done little to boost demand. This was also due to a prolonged property market crisis and a weak job market. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.2% in December, compared to the 0.1% decrease in the previous month and the prediction of a 0.1% rise. The producer price
Inflation
Australian inflation falls to 3.4% in November
Australia’s inflation rate fell to 3.4% in the 12 months to November from 3.8% a month earlier as housing and electricity costs increases moderated, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Trimmed mean inflation, which measures the underlying increase in consumer prices, eased to 3.2% from 3.3% but remained above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred 2-3% band over the medium term, the ABS said in a media release. The November rate was below financial market economists’ average forecasts of 3.6%. ABS Head of Prices Statistics Michelle Marquardt said the largest contributor to annual inflation in November was housing, which rose 5.2% over the 12 month period, followed by food and non-alcoholic beverages (3.3%) and transport (2.7%). Housing had risen 5.9% in the 12 months ended October. Annual goods inflation dropped to 3.3% from 3.8%, mostly due to the rise in electricity prices plunging to 19.7% from 37.1%, while annual services inflation eased to 3.6% from 3.9% as result of a drop in demand for domestic travel as school holidays ended. If Commonwealth and State Government electricity rebates were excluded, electricity prices rose 4.6% in the year ending November compared to 5.0% in the year t

Inflation
US inflation cools in Nov; data gaps cloud outlook
United States consumer inflation slowed more than expected in the year to November, with the data distorted by gaps caused by a prolonged federal government shutdown, complicating the outlook for policymakers. Fresh data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed the consumer price index (CPI) rising 2.7% on a year-on-year basis in November, below market expectations for a 3.1% increase. However, no month-to-month inflation rates were published, marking an unprecedented disruption to one of the most closely watched U.S. economic indicators. The BLS said the moderation in inflation was partly due to the 43-day government shutdown, which delayed price data collection until the second half of November, when retailers were already rolling out holiday season discounts. “Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7% before seasonal adjustment. BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations.,” the agency said. Despite the easing in headline inflation, households continued to face affordability challenges as the prices of essential goods and services climbed sharply. Beef prices surged 15.8% from a year earlier, the largest increase since June 2020, while ground beef
Inflation
UK inflation falls amid lower food prices
Just days before the Bank of England gathers for its last decision of the year, inflation has done something few expected quite so soon: it flinched. The UK’s annual inflation rate slid to 3.2% in November, a sharper drop than forecast and low enough to put a festive bow on the case for an interest rate cut. Economists had pencilled in a gentler easing, but the Office for National Statistics delivered a bigger surprise. Prices are still rising, just not with the same stubborn gusto seen through much of the year. Even core inflation, which strips out the more volatile bits of the shopping basket, cooled to the same 3.2% pace, suggesting the slowdown isn’t just a one-off quirk. The unlikely heroes of this story are the supermarket aisles. Food prices, which normally creep up as Christmas approaches, went the other way. Cakes, biscuits and breakfast cereals were cheaper than a year ago, helped along by heavy discounting and early festive deals. Tobacco prices also stopped climbing after a big jump last year, while women’s clothing was marked down amid Black Friday promotions. Inflation, it turns out, is not immune to a good sale. Markets wasted no time joining the dots, and traders quickly priced in a
Inflation
Eurozone inflation rises to 2.2%, above ECB target
Eurozone inflation rose unexpectedly to 2.2% in November from the month prior, according to flash data from Eurostat. The latest data shows that inflation in the Eurozone is just above the European Central Bank’s target of 2%, and came in higher than market expectations of 2.1%. Underlying figures excluding volatile food and fuel prices held steady at 2.4% on continued quick price growth in services, but muted figures for durable goods. Services are expected to have the highest annual rate in November at 3.5% compared to 3.4% in October, according to Eurostat. The ECB held its key deposit facility rate at 2% for the third consecutive time in late October, having last cut rates in June. The Eurozone hitting the 2% inflation target was part of a rate-cutting cycle that brought rates down from last year’s record high of 4%. Natural gas prices are currently 40% lower than a year ago, and crude oil has decreased by over 10%, setting the scene for more energy deflation. Energy prices were also down 0.5% in November from a year earlier, and inflation in non-energy industrial goods was 0.6%. Following the Ocotbe trump, ECB President Christine Lagarde told CNBC that from a monetary standpoint, the economy is in a go
Inflation
Runaway inflation threatens RBA’s easing path
Given all the levers the Reserve Bank (RBA) has at its disposal to manipulate the economy, cynics could be forgiven for concluding that its ability to rein in inflation ‘blows big ones’. Early last week, we learned that headline inflation rose by 3.8% in October, up from 3.6% in the previous month. The trimmed mean - often a better indication of the underlying trend – also rose from 3.2% year-on-year in September to 3.3% year-on-year in October. Housing inflation was the largest contributor to headline inflation, accounting for 1.2 percentage points of the 3.8% number.Housing inflationRising inflation numbers took analysts by surprise with the dropping off of previous subsidies, which dampened prices, resulting in electricity alone - a major contributor to housing inflation - accounting for 37.1% in the 12 months to October. Based on the ABS’s long-awaited first “full” monthly consumer price index (CPI) – a major milestone for Australia - which provides a more timely and accurate gauge of the short-term challenges confronting the 87 components in the CPI basket, the RBA appears unlikely to lower interest rates soon. Having concluded that the recent spike in inflation data is largely down to temporary factors, the