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Inflation

Inflation
US inflation holds at 2.4% ahead of oil shock
United States consumer prices rose in line with expectations in February, offering a final snapshot of inflation trends before a sharp rise in oil prices tied to the escalating conflict with Iran threatens to cloud the outlook for the months ahead. The consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, following a 0.2% gain in January, according to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the past 12 months, the headline CPI rose 2.4%, matching market forecasts. Core inflation, which excludes the more volatile food and energy categories, also came in as expected, rising 0.2% on the month and increasing 2.5% from a year earlier. The annual readings were unchanged from January, suggesting that inflation remains above the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 2% target but is not accelerating. Shelter costs, the largest component in the CPI basket, rose 0.2% in February, bringing the annual increase to 3%. Within the category, rents climbed just 0.1% during the month, marking the smallest monthly increase since January 2021. Elsewhere, apparel prices increased sharply, rising 1.3% in February, marking the largest monthly jump since September 2018 and highlighting the category
Inflation
Eurozone inflation rises unexpectedly ahead of energy risk
Inflation in the Eurozone rose unexpectedly during February, just before a fast-moving war in the Middle East threatens to reignite a new energy shock for Europe. According to the European Commission, euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.9% in February 2026, up from 1.7% in January. Economists had expected the rate to hold steady. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.7%, the strongest since March 2024. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, climbed to 2.4% from 2.2%, also above expectations. Energy inflation was -3.2%, compared to -4.0% in January. This data was gathered before the latest escalations in the Middle East, which are poised to disrupt energy markets. The European Central Bank chief economist, Philip Lane, warned that a prolonged war could push up eurozone inflation and weigh on growth, while stressing that the medium-term outcome will depend on the conflict’s scope and duration. This comes as a senior commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps announced to block shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of global crude oil and natural gas is shipped.
Inflation
RBA uncertain about inflation outlook, conflict effect
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was unsure if inflation would return to its target in a reasonable period of time, and that it was too early to assess the economic impact of the rising Middle East conflict, Governor Michele Bullock said on Tuesday. Bullock said a large part of the unexpected increase in the consumer price index (CPI) since the middle of last year was due to sector-specific demand and price pressures that it expected to ease in the coming quarters. But economy-wide capacity pressures in the economy were also playing a role and, overall, it thought underlying demand in the economy was further from its supply potential than the central bank had assessed six months ago. “A range of indicators tell us that labour market conditions are tight. And it is uncertain whether financial conditions are sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to the midpoint of the target in a reasonable timeframe,” she said in a speech to the Australian Financial Review Business Summit. Bullock said the RBA Board judged that the inflation outlook warranted the 25 basis point lift in the official cash rate to 3.85% in February. “The staff’s view is that the data we’ve seen since then broadly support their assessment of th
Inflation
US producer prices rise more than expected in January
United States producer prices rose more than expected in January as tariffs weighed on services prices. The producer price index (PPI) increased 0.5% during the month, per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This is above both Dow Jones estimates of 0.3% and the 0.4% growth seen in December. “The January increase in prices for final demand can be traced to a 0.8-percent advance in the index for final demand services. In contrast, prices for final demand goods declined 0.3 percent,” wrote the BLS. The core PPI was up 0.8%, also passing estimates of 0.3% and December’s figure of 0.6%. Across the year, the headline PPI rose 2.9% and the core index grew 3.6%. The increase in services prices was boosted by a 2.5% surge in trade services. Transportation and warehousing services also rose 1%. Among goods, foods prices were down 1.5%, while energy prices dropped 2.7%. “The problem last month appeared to be tariff-related," according to Capital Economics chief North America economist Paul Ashworth. "If we exclude trade and transportation, other core services prices were unchanged.” The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in February that the blanket tariffs imposed under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act were
Inflation
Australian inflation steady at 3.8% in January
Australia’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.8% in the 12 months to January 2026, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). “The 3.8% annual CPI inflation to January was unchanged from December,” Head of Prices Statistics Michelle Marquardt said in a media release. However trimmed mean, or underlying, inflation rose to 3.4% in January from 3.3% in the 12 months to December 2025. Economists were forecasting a fall in the headline rate to 3.7% and no change in the underlying rate of 3.3%. The data, and particularly the trimmed mean rate, is closely watched by the Reserve Bank of Australia as it sets official interest rates, which were raised by 25 basis points to 3.85% earlier this month. The largest contributor to annual inflation in January was housing, which rose 6.8%, followed by food and non-alcoholic beverages, up 3.1%, and recreation and culture, up 3.7%. Electricity costs rose 32.2% in the 12 months to January, up from 21.5% to December, mostly because households used up the extended Commonwealth Energy Bill Relief Fund (EBRF) and various State Government rebates. Excluding the impact of rebates, electricity prices rose 4.5%, partly due to annual price reviews by energ

Inflation
US consumer price growth at 2.4%; lower than expected
The costs of goods and services in the United States grew at a slower rate than expected in January, according to the U.S. Bureau of Statistics. The consumer price index (CPI) for January rose 2.4% from a year ago and pulled the inflation rate down to where it was the month after President Donald Trump announced aggressive tariffs on U.S. imports in April 2025. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI increased 2.5%, the lowest level since 2021. Economists were looking for an annual rate of 2.5% for both readings. This also comes as a new poll shows voters souring on Trump’s economic record. The data also showed that prices rose 0.2% from December to January, and the core CPI went up 0.3% over the month. Shelter accounted for much of the CPI gain but still only increased by 0.2% for the month, bringing the annual increase down to 3%. This category makes up more than one-third of the CPI. Food prices increased 0.2% as five of the six major grocery categories posted gains and airline fares grew 6.5%. On the other hand, energy fell 1.5%, and vehicle prices were muted, with new vehicles up just 0.1% and used cars and trucks falling 1.8%. Egg prices dropped 7% and are now down 34% over the past year after a me
Inflation
Australian inflation jumps to 3.8% in December
Australia’s inflation rate rose to 3.8% in the 12 months to the end of December from 3.4% a month earlier, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Trimmed mean inflation, which measures the underlying increase in consumer prices, lifted to 3.3% from 3.2% over the same period, the ABS said in a media release. The headline rate was above market expectations of 3.6% but broadly in line with forecasts of an underlying rate of 3.3%, which are in turn above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 2–3 % target range. ABS Head of Prices Statistics Michelle Marquardt said the largest contributor to annual inflation in December was housing, up 5.5%, followed by food and non-alcoholic beverages, up 3.4%, and recreation and culture, which rose 4.4%. This data will be crucial in determining whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raises interest rates at its next meeting in February, coming as it does after stronger-than-expected employment data earlier this month. The chances of the official cash interest rate being lifted from 3.60% to 3.85% were rated at 58% yesterday by the RBA Rate Tracker, which is based on Australian Securities Exchange 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures prices. In the three months to 31 De
Inflation
US inflation rises in Nov, says Fed's preferred gauge
United States inflation rose in November, according to the Federal Reserve’s preferred metric, moving away from the Fed’s 2% target. The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index climbed 0.2% in November, with both headline and core inflation up 2.8% year-over-year. This was in line with Dow Jones forecasts. The Fed’s long-term 2% inflation target is measured according to the PCE index, rather than the consumer price index (CPI). “The PCE index is constructed in a way that accounts for how Americans are spending their money at a given time and more quickly adapts to changes in spending patterns,” per the Board of Governors. In October, the PCE index rose 2.7% year-over-year and 0.2% on a monthly basis. October’s data was released alongside November’s due to the 43-day government shutdown. “Missing CPI data were derived from the September and November releases, meaning the month-on-month changes in the PCE offered little value,” wrote ANZ analysts. “Given shutdown-related data issues and after consecutive 25bp cuts at the past three meetings, we expect the Fed will pause at its January meeting next week.” Services PCE inflation was up 3.4% year-over-year in November, while goods inflation increased by 1.4
Inflation
Australia CPI set to rise in 2026: UN forecast
While Australia has surfaced reasonably unscathed from recent United States tariff shocks, this soft landing relative to other countries has come at a price. At least, that’s the conclusion of the United Nations' latest World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026 report, which has a fairly sobering outlook for local inflation. The estimated average tariff rate for Australia stood at 8.9% — reflecting a low International Emergency Economic Powers Act reciprocal tariff baseline rate of 10% — with the country’s exports to the U.S., like precious metals and gold, being exempt from tariffs. Beyond the relatively benign tariff impact, the UN report also highlighted easing of monetary policies and "expansionary" fiscal measures in Australia, which have contributed to an economic rebound amid heightened uncertainty and persistent global trade tensions. According to the UN, the Australian economy is expected to experience GDP growth of 2.2% in 2026 — after nudging 1.8% in 2025 — and 2.4% in 2027. While that’s encouraging, consumer price inflation — which slowed to an estimated 2.6% in 2025 from 3.2% in 2024 — is projected to rise to 3.0% in 2026, reflecting higher expected services inflation following persistently strong wage g