Inflation

Inflation
Americans worry about finances as inflation fears rise
According to a New York Federal Reserve survey released yesterday, American consumers are increasingly concerned about their household financial situation amid growing speculation that inflation is again on the rise. The central bank’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations found that consumers expect inflation to be higher in the year ahead, and fewer expect their households’ financial situations to be better off a year from now. The Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations found that median inflation expectations increased at the one-year-ahead horizon to 3.4% from 3.2% and at the five-year-ahead horizon to 3.0% from 2.9%. Meanwhile, the mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months increased by 0.4 ppt to 14.9%, above the trailing twelve-month average of 14.1%. Surprisingly, while many Americans have expressed concerns over rising prices and the effect of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, most have yet to change their spending habits. Up until now, many experts believe this consumer resolve to maintain living standards is what has helped the United States avoid a significant economic slowdown. Meanwhile, high food costs in particular are making it hard for American consumers
Inflation
Australian CPI rises to 3%, core inflation eases
Australia’s annual inflation rate climbed to 3% in August, the highest in a year, though easing core pressures may allow the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) room for further near-term rate cuts. Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday showed the monthly consumer price index rose from 2.8% in July, slightly above market expectations of 2.9%. “The 3.0 per cent annual CPI inflation to August was up from 2.8 per cent to July, making this the highest annual inflation rate since July 2024,” said Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics. On a monthly basis, inflation was flat, as electricity prices dropped 6.3% following new government rebates in New South Wales and the ACT, while holiday travel and accommodation slid 3.5%. Ms Marquardt noted that the rebate programmes played a significant role in shaping energy costs: “The annual rise in electricity costs is primarily related to households in Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania having higher out-of-pocket costs in August 2025 than they did in August 2024. "In August last year, State Government electricity rebates were in place for Queensland ($1000), Western Australia ($400) and Tasmania ($250). Over the year, those rebates
Inflation
US producer inflation drops 0.1% in August
United States producer prices dropped by 0.1% in August, their first decline since April, in a sign of weakening demand. This was below Dow Jones estimates of a 0.3% increase. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, the Producer Price Index rose by 0.3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The August decline “is attributable to a 0.2% decline in prices for final demand services,” said the BLS. Final demand goods and services are used in the U.S. without further processing. “Three quarters of the August decrease in prices for final demand services can be attributed to a 3.9% decline in margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling.” Producer goods prices rose by 0.1% last month, or by 0.3% excluding food and energy. U.S.-produced energy prices were down 0.4%. In the 12 months to August, the Producer Price Index excluding food, energy, and trade services was up 2.8%. This is the largest yearly increase in 17 months. Wholesale prices rose by 0.7% in July and 0.1% in June, the BLS said. The Consumer Price Index is also due this week. In July, the Consumer Price Index was up 0.2% monthly and 2.7% for the previous 12 months. The Federal Reserve will meet on 16-17 September to consider a rate cu
Inflation
ABS: National monthly inflation rises to 2.8% in July
Australia’s inflation surged in July, with consumer prices rising 2.8% annually, marking the fastest pace since July 2024, according to the latest monthly figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The increase followed June’s 1.9% rise and exceeded economists’ expectations of 2.3%. "This is the highest annual inflation rate since July 2024, following several months of easing inflation," ABS head of prices statistics Michelle Marquardt said. Underlying pressures also strengthened, with the annual trimmed mean — a measure of core inflation — climbing to 2.7% in July from 2.1% the previous month. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in the minutes of its August meeting released on Wednesday, said headline inflation was expected to rise further over the second half of 2025 before easing back to the middle of its 2–3% target band. The central bank currently forecasts inflation to hit 3% in December.Housing, food and tobacco lead gainsHousing costs, including electricity, rose 3.6% over the year and were the biggest contributor to July’s consumer price index (CPI). Food and non-alcoholic beverages increased 3%, while alcohol and tobacco surged 6.5%. Fruit and vegetable prices climbed 4.8%, driven by highe
Inflation
ABS: National CPI hits 4yr low of 2.1% in June quarter
Australia's annual inflation rate has eased to its lowest level in over four years, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.7% in the June 2025 quarter and 2.1% annually, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics, said: “The CPI rose 0.7% in the June quarter, lower than the 0.9% rise in the March 2025 quarter. “Annual inflation to the June 2025 quarter of 2.1% was down from 2.4% to the March quarter. This is the lowest annual inflation rate since the March 2021 quarter.” Markets had expected a 0.8% quarterly increase and a 2.2% annual rise. To better capture underlying price trends, the ABS also monitors trimmed mean inflation, which excludes extreme price movements. “Trimmed mean annual inflation was 2.7% to the June quarter, down from 2.9% to the March quarter. Trimmed mean annual inflation remains higher than CPI inflation of 2.1%,” Ms Marquardt said.Quarterly CPI DriversKey contributors to quarterly inflation included Housing, up 1.2%, Food and non-alcoholic beverages which added 1.0%, and Health, lifting 1.5%. A notable offset was the decline in Transport costs, down 0.7%. Within Housing, electricity prices surged 8.1%, as households in Per

Inflation
US CPI at 2.7%; Trump renews Fed rate cut demands
United States inflation edged higher in June, with consumer prices rising in line with expectations but prompting renewed political pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. President Donald Trump cited the latest inflation data as evidence that the central bank should act aggressively to ease monetary policy. The consumer price index (CPI), a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.3% over the month, lifting the annual inflation rate to 2.7%, according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS). The figure matched market expectations and marked the highest annual rate since February, remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.2% over the month. Year-on-year, it came in at 2.9%, also in line with expectations. However, the monthly increase was slightly below the anticipated 0.3% gain, suggesting modest underlying inflationary pressure. Prior to June, inflation had been steadily moderating. The headline CPI stood at 3% annually in January, and had been declining each month, despite persistent concerns that Trump’s escalating trade tariffs would stoke consumer prices. June’s data offered a more nuanced picture. While some ta
Inflation
National CPI cools to 2.1%, trimmed mean hits 4yr low
Inflation in Australia eased in May, with the monthly consumer price index (CPI) rising 2.1% over the year, down from 2.4% in April, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). This marks the lowest annual CPI increase since October 2024. Underlying inflation also cooled, with Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics, noting: “Annual trimmed mean inflation was 2.4% in May 2025, down from 2.8% in April. This is the lowest annual trimmed mean inflation rate since November 2021.” The CPI excluding volatile items and holiday travel rose 2.7% in the 12 months to May, slightly down from 2.8% in April. Food and beverage inflation eased, with annual prices rising 2.9% in May compared to 3.1% the previous month. Fruit and vegetable prices increased 2.8% year-on-year, down sharply from April’s 6.1%. Fruit prices fell 2.7% in May alone, driven by lower costs for mandarins, oranges, avocados and apples. Non-alcoholic beverage prices climbed 5.2% over the year, led by an 8.3% rise in coffee, tea and cocoa. “Non-alcoholic beverage prices remain high, with coffee, tea and cocoa prices up by 8.3% over the past 12 months. Higher prices for coffee drove the rise with adverse weather conditions impacting major
Inflation
Beware S-word and its impact on investment markets
Unlike recessions during which bonds tend to do well as interest rates fall, rising inflation, together with a surge in unemployment and a slowing economy often erode the value of both stocks and bonds, while also impacting the everyday lives of consumers. British politician Iain Macleod dubbed this trifecta of negative events - occurring simultaneously - stagflation in the 1960s. A few short years later, stagflation - driven by a sharp increase in oil prices - underscored what was seen as a lost decade for equities in the 1970s. Admittedly, stagflation wasn’t seen as an immediate threat at the start of 2025, with global inflation cooling to 3-4% by IMF estimates. One simple way to measure stagflation is real gross domestic product (GDP) growth below the previous 10-year average and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation above its 10-year average.Stagflation conditions risingHowever, jump forward six months and mounting geopolitical tensions and energy risks – amplified last week by America’s bombing of Iran – have put the world on notice that stagflation-inducing conditions are on the rise. Even by the reckoning of the U.S. Federal Reserve (The Fed) the U.S. economy is a lot closer to the S-word - where recession and
Inflation
US inflation cools in May despite tariff concerns
United States inflation rose less than expected in May, with falling energy and vehicle prices offsetting rent increases, as the anticipated impact of tariffs under President Donald Trump’s trade policy has yet to significantly filter through. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday that the consumer price index (CPI) edged up 0.1% on the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.4%. Markets expected a monthly gain of 0.2%, and an annual increase of 2.5%. Excluding food and energy, core CPI also came in softer than anticipated - rising just 0.1% on the month and 2.8% over the year. Analysts were looking for 0.3% and 2.9%, respectively. ANZ commented in a note to clients, “It was expected that early signs of tariffs would have driven a rise in inflation in May. However, the softer-than-expected CPI data suggest that businesses are holding back from passing higher tariffs on to consumers.” Energy prices were a key drag on the index, falling 1% in May. Gasoline prices dropped 2.6% for the month, natural gas decreased 1%, while electricity increased 0.9%. New and used vehicle prices also retreated, down 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively. Apparel prices fell 0.4%. Shelter costs continued to climb, rising