Gold prices have reached a new record high of US$2,989.31 per ounce, amid uncertainty over the United States’ tariff plans and a potential economic recession.
Spot gold prices have risen by almost 14% this year, after increasing by 27% in 2024. Macquarie Bank analysts have raised their gold price forecast to a peak of US$3,500 per ounce in 2025’s third quarter.
“We are raising our gold price forecast to a 3Q25 quarter average peak of US$3,150 per ounce and our single point price high to $3,500 per ounce,” said Macquarie head of commodities strategy Marcus Garvey.
“President Trump's rapid move to announce, if not always to enact, import tariffs has contributed to geopolitical uncertainty and boosted inflation expectations, helping push down front-end real rates and supporting gold in the face of periodic USD strength and initially reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts.”
Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium exports, which entered into effect yesterday, and a 20% tariff on goods from China. A 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico is set to begin on 2 April, though this has been paused twice since an original starting date of 1 February.
He has also threatened to add a 200% tariff on alcohol from European Union nations, including wine and champagne.
Trump refused to rule out a possible U.S. recession this year, saying: “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big.”
The S&P 500 fell by 2.7% after his comments, and has now dropped by 10.1% from its record high close on 19 February.
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