Currencies

Currencies
FX Week Ahead: DXY at multiweek highs; Yen slides
The United States dollar index started the week near multi-month highs, despite weakening at the end of last week as renewed trade tensions between Washington and Beijing rattled markets and pushed investors towards safe-haven assets. U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of a “massive increase” in tariffs on Chinese imports triggered a sharp risk-off move across equities, bonds, and currencies, setting the tone for a volatile start to the week. The DXY fell below 99.00, erasing part of its weekly gain as traders priced in the possibility that trade and political uncertainty could force the Federal Reserve into additional rate cuts before year-end. Trump’s comments on Truth Social described Beijing’s rare earth export restrictions as “hostile” and accused China of using the minerals to hold the world “captive”. He also said he saw no reason to meet President Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in South Korea. Beijing’s new rules require foreign companies to obtain special licences to export any product containing more than 0.1% of rare earth content, heightening fears of supply chain disruptions in sectors such as semiconductors, electric vehicles, and defence manufacturing. The renewed confrontation between the world’s tw
Currencies
FX Week Ahead: Fed cut bets, shutdown weighs on DXY
The United States dollar index (DXY) traded slightly higher around 98.05 during Monday’s Asian session but remained capped as investors weighed the impact of prolonged government shutdown uncertainty and growing expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts. The U.S. government shutdown entered its fifth day after lawmakers failed to reach an agreement to reopen federal operations. President Donald Trump warned his administration would begin laying off federal workers if Congress did not pass funding legislation soon. The standoff has delayed the release of major economic data, including the September employment report, leaving traders reliant on secondary indicators for policy guidance. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in a 94.1% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in October, with an 83.9% chance of another in December. Fed Governor Stephen Miran backed an aggressive easing stance, citing the administration’s fiscal policies as a drag on growth, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan struck a hawkish tone, cautioning against cutting too quickly given persistent inflation in non-housing services. The FOMC’s September meeting minutes due Wednesday will be a key event, with t
Currencies
FX Week Ahead: Dollar holds gains, traders eye NFP
The United States dollar index began the week little changed after booking a second consecutive week of gains. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) opened little changed at 98.182, following gains of 0.6% last week, with traders now turning their attention to September’s nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report for the next catalyst. The Greenback’s momentum was reinforced by stronger-than-expected U.S. fundamentals, with revised second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data coming in higher than expected, while labour market indicators pointed to resilience, helping the DXY break through the 98.00 mark and briefly touch monthly highs near 98.60. U.S. Treasury yields mirrored the move, adding to the bullish tone. The Federal Reserve recently delivered a 25 basis-point rate cut, citing cooling job growth and mounting employment risks. Projections suggest another half-point of easing is likely before year-end, while the 2026–2027 path shows smaller cuts ahead. Chair Jerome Powell highlighted slowing hiring, cautious consumer spending, and core inflation at 2.9%, adding that risks appear more balanced and the Fed is nearing a neutral stance. Markets are pricing in two more cuts - October and December - totalling nearly 40 basis p
Currencies
FX Week Ahead: US dollar pushes higher post Fed cut
The U.S. dollar started the week broadly steady after a volatile stretch that saw the greenback hit multi-year lows before rebounding on the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates for the first time since December. The dollar index (DXY) opened at 97.657, little changed after finishing last week 0.03% higher. The rebound that began after Wednesday’s Fed meeting carried through to Friday, with the central bank lowering its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%. More than the rate cut itself, markets are now focused on what lies ahead as Fed officials begin a busy schedule of public remarks. The “blackout” period before the September policy meeting ended on Thursday, opening the door to a new phase of monetary communication. Over a dozen speeches are expected this week, including three appearances from Governor Michelle Bowman, comments from Raphael Bostic, Lorie Logan and Austan Goolsbee, and above all, Chair Jerome Powell, whose remarks on Tuesday (Wednesday AEST) will be closely scrutinised. The Fed’s latest projections underscored divisions within the committee. Nine policymakers see two more cuts this year, six prefer holding steady, while new Governor Stephen Miran - who d
Currencies
FX Week Ahead: DXY nears 7wk lows; Fed cut priced in
The United States dollar index (DXY) began the week on firmer ground, ticking up 0.1% to 97.615 after touching seven-week lows last week at 97.253. Despite the uptick, the broader bearish trend remains intact as markets brace for a widely expected Federal Reserve interest rate cut later in the week. Last week’s data showed consumer inflation picking up slightly, while jobless claims posted the largest increase in four years. The deterioration reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points (bp) at its meeting this week, with another reduction likely before year-end. The CME Group FedWatch Tool is currently indicating a 96.4% chance of a 25bp cut, with a 3.6% chance of a larger 50bp cut. The Fed convenes amid unusual political pressure. President Donald Trump has nominated a new candidate for the central bank’s Board of Governors while also attempting to dismiss Governor Lisa Cook, an unprecedented move that has raised concerns over Fed independence and global market confidence.Euro steadies near four-year highsThe euro slipped 0.1% to 1.1728 at the start of the week but remained close to four-year highs. The EUR/USD currency pair gained 0.18% last week as markets fully priced a Fed cut.

Currencies

FX Week Ahead: DXY at multiweek highs; Yen slides

FX Week Ahead: Fed cut bets, shutdown weighs on DXY

FX Week Ahead: Dollar holds gains, traders eye NFP

FX Week Ahead: US dollar pushes higher post Fed cut

FX Week Ahead: DXY nears 7wk lows; Fed cut priced in