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FX Week Ahead: DXY steady below fresh 6mth highs
The United States dollar index (DXY) began the week steady at 100.196, holding just below the six-month high of 100.395 reached on Friday. The index rose 0.9% over the previous week as delayed U.S. economic data and dovish remarks from Federal Reserve official Williams boosted expectations of a December rate cut. U.S. labour data released late due to the government shutdown showed stronger-than-expected jobs growth for September, but a higher unemployment rate and downward revisions to previous months painted a more mixed picture. The prolonged shutdown has also delayed key economic indicators, including inflation data, adding uncertainty to the near-term outlook for the U.S. dollar. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, market pricing now reflects a 69.4% chance of a 25 bps rate cut in December, up from 63% a week earlier.Eurozone momentum weakensEUR/USD opened the week flat at 1.15102 after a 1% weekly decline. The U.S. dollar wavered following the delayed non-farm payroll report, though the data offered limited clarity given its age and partial October–November readings hinting at further labour market deterioration. The positive payroll numbers did little to shift expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve’s
Currencies
FX Week Ahead: DXY ticks lower; Fed cut doubts build
The United States dollar index (DXY) started the week steady at 99.27, after ending Friday's session around two-week lows as traders braced for a backlog of delayed U.S. economic data following the government’s reopening. Investors expect forthcoming figures to reveal a weakening economy, which continues to pressure the Greenback. President Donald Trump signed the House-passed funding package late Thursday, officially ending the record 43-day government shutdown. The bill extends funding for most agencies until 30 January and fully funds others for the year. Markets anticipate that resumed U.S. dataflow will highlight labour market cooling and a broader slowdown. The White House has already warned that the October unemployment rate may never be released due to missing household survey inputs. Rate expectations also shifted lower. CME Group FedWatch Tool now indicates a 44.4% probability of a 25 bps cut at the December Federal Reserve meeting, down sharply from 62.9% last week. Hawkish commentary, however, limited further the U.S. dollar's downside. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said policy rates may need to stay “on hold for some time”, while Raphael Bostic and Beth Hammack also emphasised they favour keepin
Currencies
FX Week Ahead: US dollar eases from 6mth high
The United States dollar index (DXY) began the week marginally lower, easing 0.1% to 99.556, extending last week’s declines as investors retreated from risk following a renewed sell-off on Wall Street as persistent concerns over an “AI bubble” continued to dampen sentiment. The Greenback found some support on Friday amid risk aversion in Asia, where markets mirrored Wall Street’s losses, led by technology stocks. Investors are now focused on upcoming data for further insight into the health of the U.S. economy after worrisome labour market figures and tech-driven market turbulence derailed earlier optimism. Concerns intensified after the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 50.3 in November, near record lows and below expectations of 53.2. With the government shutdown - now in its sixth week - limiting official data releases, investors have increasingly relied on private sector indicators to gauge economic performance. Recent reports from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed layoff announcements in October surged to a 22-year high for the month, reinforcing fears of an economic slowdown and fuelling expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.Euro steady as weak sentiment, data weigh o
Currencies
FX Week Ahead: DXY hits 13wk high as Fed hawks push back
The United States dollar index surged to its strongest level in over three months last week as traders pared back expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Hawkish remarks from several Fed officials reinforced the view that inflation remains too high to justify further easing, driving the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) up 0.8% to its highest since July. The DXY was buoyed by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s measured tone following the central bank’s widely expected quarter-point rate cut to a range of 3.75% - 4.00%. Powell cautioned that the policy outlook remains uncertain and warned markets not to assume another cut in December. At the same time, Treasury yields climbed to multi-week highs as investors adjusted to the Fed’s more cautious stance. The central bank also announced small-scale Treasury purchases to ease recent liquidity strains, signalling that financial conditions had tightened more than policymakers anticipated. Among Fed officials, Kansas City’s Jeffrey Schmid and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan both voted against the latest rate cut, citing persistent inflation and resilient labour markets. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack echoed similar concerns, while Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic stru
Currencies
FX Week Ahead: DXY ticks down amid tame US inflation
The United States dollar index (DXY) began the week on a softer note, slipping 0.1% in early Asian trade after the long-awaited September CPI report came in below expectations, reinforcing confidence that the Federal Reserve will deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut at its meeting this week. Although the U.S. dollar index still managed a 0.3% weekly gain. Headline inflation rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3% annually, slightly below forecasts, while core inflation eased modestly, offering the Fed breathing space as it balances tariff-driven price pressures with the need to support employment. With policymakers expected to follow through with two more rate cuts in October and December, attention now turns to whether the central bank interprets the tariff-related uptick in inflation as temporary or persistent heading into 2026.Euro steady despite mixed crosswindsEUR/USD hovered around 1.1629, following weekly declines of 0.21%, as muted U.S. inflation data failed to alter market expectations of a near-term Fed cut. The euro remained supported by upbeat Eurozone PMI figures, though momentum was capped after Moody’s revised France’s outlook to negative, citing political instability and fiscal risks. Meanwhile, S&P Global PMIs

Currencies
FX Week Ahead: DXY steady, trade tensions in focus
The United States dollar index (DXY) started the week steady at 98.536 after closing out last week with a marginal 0.3% decline, as traders reacted to easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing and weighed signals of further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve. Markets were rattled early in the week when President Donald Trump reaffirmed that the United States was already “in a trade war” with China, intensifying uncertainty. Tensions escalated further after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent referred to China’s trade negotiator as an “unhinged wolf”, exacerbating diplomatic friction. However, sentiment improved later in the week as Trump softened his stance, saying high tariffs on Chinese goods were “not sustainable” and confirming plans to meet President Xi Jinping at the upcoming APEC Summit in South Korea. On the monetary front, several Fed policymakers - including Christopher Waller, Stephen Miran, and Alberto Musalem - endorsed further easing, reinforcing expectations of two additional rate cuts before year-end. Markets now fully price in a 25-basis-point cut in October, with a smaller probability of a larger move.Euro dips as dollar steadiesThe EUR/USD currency pair started the week slightly high
Currencies
FX Week Ahead: DXY at multiweek highs; Yen slides
The United States dollar index started the week near multi-month highs, despite weakening at the end of last week as renewed trade tensions between Washington and Beijing rattled markets and pushed investors towards safe-haven assets. U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of a “massive increase” in tariffs on Chinese imports triggered a sharp risk-off move across equities, bonds, and currencies, setting the tone for a volatile start to the week. The DXY fell below 99.00, erasing part of its weekly gain as traders priced in the possibility that trade and political uncertainty could force the Federal Reserve into additional rate cuts before year-end. Trump’s comments on Truth Social described Beijing’s rare earth export restrictions as “hostile” and accused China of using the minerals to hold the world “captive”. He also said he saw no reason to meet President Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in South Korea. Beijing’s new rules require foreign companies to obtain special licences to export any product containing more than 0.1% of rare earth content, heightening fears of supply chain disruptions in sectors such as semiconductors, electric vehicles, and defence manufacturing. The renewed confrontation between the world’s tw
Currencies
FX Week Ahead: Fed cut bets, shutdown weighs on DXY
The United States dollar index (DXY) traded slightly higher around 98.05 during Monday’s Asian session but remained capped as investors weighed the impact of prolonged government shutdown uncertainty and growing expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts. The U.S. government shutdown entered its fifth day after lawmakers failed to reach an agreement to reopen federal operations. President Donald Trump warned his administration would begin laying off federal workers if Congress did not pass funding legislation soon. The standoff has delayed the release of major economic data, including the September employment report, leaving traders reliant on secondary indicators for policy guidance. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in a 94.1% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in October, with an 83.9% chance of another in December. Fed Governor Stephen Miran backed an aggressive easing stance, citing the administration’s fiscal policies as a drag on growth, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan struck a hawkish tone, cautioning against cutting too quickly given persistent inflation in non-housing services. The FOMC’s September meeting minutes due Wednesday will be a key event, with t
Currencies
FX Week Ahead: Dollar holds gains, traders eye NFP
The United States dollar index began the week little changed after booking a second consecutive week of gains. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) opened little changed at 98.182, following gains of 0.6% last week, with traders now turning their attention to September’s nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report for the next catalyst. The Greenback’s momentum was reinforced by stronger-than-expected U.S. fundamentals, with revised second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data coming in higher than expected, while labour market indicators pointed to resilience, helping the DXY break through the 98.00 mark and briefly touch monthly highs near 98.60. U.S. Treasury yields mirrored the move, adding to the bullish tone. The Federal Reserve recently delivered a 25 basis-point rate cut, citing cooling job growth and mounting employment risks. Projections suggest another half-point of easing is likely before year-end, while the 2026–2027 path shows smaller cuts ahead. Chair Jerome Powell highlighted slowing hiring, cautious consumer spending, and core inflation at 2.9%, adding that risks appear more balanced and the Fed is nearing a neutral stance. Markets are pricing in two more cuts - October and December - totalling nearly 40 basis p