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Budgets
Reeves lifts UK tax burden to highest level since WWII
UK investors breathed a sigh of relief on Wednesday, as the Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ tax-raising budget landed with far less drama than many in the markets had feared. Reeves unveiled more than £26 billion in fresh tax increases, aimed at shoring up the public finances and giving herself greater space to meet her deficit-reduction rules. While the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had mistakenly published its forecasts early, the figures still set the tone: Reeves now has almost £22 billion of headroom in a few years’ time—more than double what had been expected. Markets welcomed that sense of renewed fiscal credibility, with a surge in long-dated UK government bonds sending 30-year gilt yields down by the most since April. The rally spilled across the curve, pulling down two- and five-year yields as well. With the Debt Management Office cancelling several auctions, investors anticipated less supply of long-maturity debt, adding momentum to the move. Sterling also jumped, putting in its strongest week since August. “It could have been a lot worse,” one investment officer summed it up. Banks quickly shifted their trading calls, turning more bullish on both the pound and gilts, and even JPMorgan’s
Budgets
Markets on edge ahead of UK budget: What’s in store
Markets braced for a nail-biter United Kingdom Budget on Wednesday as investors wait to see how Chancellor Rachel Reeves plans to fill a multibillion-pound fiscal gap without spooking gilt traders. While the Autumn Budget is always a big moment for markets, this year the stakes feel unusually high with investors fixated on Reeves’ tax and spending decisions, after she boxed herself in with strict fiscal rules she set last year. These rules, which she has vowed not to tamper with, require everyday government spending to be covered by tax revenues and for public debt to fall as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2029–30. However, given that higher borrowing costs, slower growth and reversed welfare cuts have created a £20–35 billion hole in the public finances, most analysts think tax rises are virtually inevitable. At face value, Reeves appears to be confronted with a no-win outcome. Assuming Reeves reneges on the rules she created, gilt markets – aka long-term government bonds issued by the UK government to borrow money for public spending - could revolt. On the other hand, any hint of fiscal impropriety risks ratcheting UK’s borrowing costs and only further igniting investor suspicions over the governm
Budgets
Republican victory: Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' passes
The United States House of Representatives has passed President Donald Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’, delivering him a major political victory. The final vote was 218-214, with only two Republicans voting against it, alongside all of the chamber’s Democrats. The bill is being hailed as the “biggest legislative win of President Trump’s two terms”. “President Trump’s One Big, Beautiful Bill delivers on the commonsense agenda that nearly 80 million Americans voted for – the largest middle-class tax cut in history, permanent border security, massive military funding, and restoring fiscal sanity,” press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. While Leavitt claims the massive tax and spending bill will fuel an “economic boom”, the Congressional Budget Office estimates it could add US$3.3 trillion to federal deficits over the next 10 years and leave millions without health coverage. The White House disputes this forecast. The legislation barely passed the Senate on Tuesday, with JD Vance breaking the tie making it a 51-50 victory for the Republicans.Clean energy cutsThe new bill is set to take an axe to clean energy incentives, getting rid of a 30% tax credit for rooftop residential solar by the end of the year, which the Biden ad
Budgets
Trump calls to abolish debt ceiling amid megabill talks
Donald Trump has called for eliminating the federal debt ceiling entirely, upending Republican negotiations over a sweeping budget package that would raise the borrowing cap and advance key elements of the United States President’s economic agenda. Posting on Truth Social on Wednesday, Trump wrote, “I am very pleased to announce that, after all of these years, I agree with Senator Elizabeth Warren on SOMETHING.” The Debt Limit should be entirely scrapped to prevent an Economic catastrophe. It is too devastating to be put in the hands of political people that may want to use it despite the horrendous effect it could have on our Country and, indirectly, even the World.” He urged lawmakers from both parties to “get together” and “DO THIS”. The comment came just hours before Trump was due to meet Senate Republicans to discuss the tax provisions of his so-called “big, beautiful bill” - a wide-ranging legislative package that includes fresh tax cuts and spending priorities. A provision to increase, but not abolish, the debt ceiling is currently included in the bill passed by the House. Trump’s unexpected call to scrap the borrowing cap altogether added a new wrinkle to the debate as he framed his position as an endorse
Budgets
Chalmers: $1.2bn clean up expected for Cyclone Alfred
In a preview to the Federal Budget, Australia's Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the cost of the ex-Tropical Cyclone Alred at around A$1.2 billion as clean up of the storm's destruction continues to take place. Chalmers will also warn that that storm caused upward pressure on inflation due to businesses being forced to close during a speech to the Queensland Press Club on Tuesday. The speech will take place around a week before his final budget is handed down before the Federal Election. Chalmers said estimates point to a quarter of a percentage point hit to quarterly growth. "We don't yet know the precise cost to our budget, but again it will be significant," he will reportedly tell the room. "I expect that these costs and these new provisions will be in the order of at least $1.2 billion, a substantial amount of money and that means a big new pressure on the budget." This will be added to the already budgeted disaster relief. “At MYEFO, we’d already booked $11.6 billion for disaster support nationally over the forward estimates,” he will announce. "With all of this extra funding, we expect that to rise to at least $13.5 billion when accounting for our provisioning, social security costs and other disaster-rela

Budgets
Economic crisis: CLP set to scrap NT's $15bn debt cap
The Northern Territory’s government has announced plans to scrap its $15 billion debt ceiling, introducing the legislation when Parliament sits in February. With the highest levels of net debt per capita in the country, the Territory is on track to reach $15 billion of assessable debt by 2028-29. The Finocchiaro Country Liberal Party (CLP) Government announced it will be taking steps to repair the Territory’s debt crisis while honouring its promise to protect public service jobs and not take austerity measures. “Labor’s debt cap was nothing more than a facade,” said Treasurer Bill Yan. Labor held government for eight years in the Northern Territory until CLP was elected last August. The government legislated a debt ceiling of $10 billion in 2021-22 in order to limit the government's borrowing and spending power. Yan said that with the current debt cap, the government would need to save around $1.8 billion, or $450 million per annum over four years across the budget and in forward estimates. The 2024-25 Budget revealed record levels of debt for the Territory of more than $11 billion for the financial year. When the Budget was handed down in May last year, the debt was projected to worsen by more than a
Budgets
Mining exports drop $100bn in mid-year budget update
Australia’s mining exports are expected to drop more than A$100 billion to 2027-2028, according to a federal budget update. Mining exports have slumped due to a lack of iron ore demand and China’s lagging economy, the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook says. There are “substantial pressures on the budget which need to be accounted for in the mid year budget update: a slowing growth, a write down in mining exports as well as a write down in company taxes”, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on Sunday. The budget will include extra spending for veterans, Medicare, early childhood spending, and natural disasters, said Chalmers. It will be released on Wednesday. “In the last budget, we spent an extra $6.5 billion because we'd been processing [veterans’ compensation] claims more quickly, and in this mid year budget update there will be another $1.8 billion for veterans,” he said. The drop in mining export revenues will give the government around $8.5 billion less in company taxes. This is the first time the Treasury has downgraded its mineral exports forecast since 2020. “We’re getting the budget in much better nick and building up Australia’s buffers to manage global uncertainty but we’re not immune from challenges com