Oil prices surged during Thursday’s Asian session as escalating attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz heightened fears of supply disruptions, overshadowing efforts by global authorities to calm energy markets through strategic reserve releases.
By 2:45 pm AEDT (3:45 am GMT), Brent crude futures had climbed $8.76, or 9.5%, to US$100.74 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $7.60, or 8.7%, to $94.85 per barrel.
The sharp rally came despite coordinated attempts by the International Energy Agency and the United States to release crude from emergency reserves in order to stabilise markets following the outbreak of conflict involving Iran.
Analysts at ANZ commented in a note to clients: "So far, market pricing continues to reflect an assumption that the conflict will be contained and relatively short-lived.
"This is evident in the sharp reaction in front-month prices, the more muted response further along the curve and the reliance on inventories and spare capacity to absorb any disruption.
“We think this framework underestimates the risk of supply losses compounding over time.”
The analysts added that while inventory releases could help ease near-term pressure on prices, they would likely prove insufficient if disruptions to supply persist.
ANZ Research also warned that a risk not yet fully reflected in market pricing is the possibility that more oil producers may be forced to shut in production if the conflict continues.
The latest surge in oil prices followed further attacks on commercial vessels in Gulf waters.
Iranian explosive-laden boats appeared to have targeted two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters on Wednesday, setting them ablaze and killing one crew member, Reuters reported, citing port authorities and maritime security firms.
The incident followed projectile strikes on three other vessels in the Gulf.
The attacks mark an escalation in hostilities between Iran and U.S.-Israeli forces and bring the number of ships struck in the region since the conflict began to at least 16.
Iraq’s oil ports have completely halted operations following the assaults, according to Iraq’s state news agency, which cited the head of the state-run General Company for Ports of Iraq.
Commercial ports in the country remain operational.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said the crew of one affected vessel had been evacuated and were reported safe.
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes, carrying roughly one-fifth of global crude supply. Any sustained disruption to traffic through the waterway has the potential to significantly tighten global energy markets.
Investment banks are also beginning to adjust their outlook for crude prices as the conflict continues to disrupt shipping flows.
Goldman Sachs raised its fourth-quarter 2026 forecasts for Brent and WTI crude to $71 and $67 per barrel, respectively, up from previous projections of $66 and $62.
The bank said it now expects a longer disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz due to the ongoing conflict.
Analysts at Goldman now assume 21 days of severely reduced flows through the strait, with volumes dropping to around 10% of normal levels, followed by a 30-day gradual recovery.
The bank also warned that daily oil prices could exceed their 2008 peak if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely constrained through March.
Despite the rising tensions, tanker tracking data suggests Iranian oil exports themselves have continued to move through the strait at near-normal levels.
Data from TankerTrackers.com and Kpler indicates that Iran exported between 1.1 million and 1.5 million barrels per day between 28 February and 11 March.
By comparison, the country’s average exports last year were about 1.69 million barrels per day, according to Kpler.
The pace of shipments could accelerate in the coming days, with several very large crude carriers continuing to load oil at Iran’s Kharg Island export terminal, according to satellite imagery.
Meanwhile, fresh U.S. government data pointed to a larger-than-expected build in crude inventories.
The Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. commercial crude inventories, excluding those held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, increased by 3.8 million barrels in the latest week. Economists had expected a build of around 1.1 million barrels.
