A prospective initial public offering (IPO) by SpaceX at a reported valuation of up to US$1.75 trillion (A$2.44 trillion) is forcing investors to confront whether a multi-platform infrastructure company can sustain pricing at a whopping 95 times revenue, according to new analysis from ARK Invest.
In a report released on 21 April, the investment management firm led by founder Cathie Wood outlined a valuation framework for what could become the largest IPO in capital markets history.
Wood argues that SpaceX should be assessed not as a conventional aerospace business but as a foundational layer for a future space-based economy.
The analysis comes after SpaceX submitted a confidential draft registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on 1 April, targeting a Nasdaq listing as early as June and a capital raise of up to $75 billion.
The scale of the proposed listing, alongside plans for subsequent debuts by OpenAI and Anthropic, signals a shift in public markets toward late-stage, high-valuation technology companies that have remained private for longer periods while building significant enterprise value.
Valuation hinges on future market dominance
ARK Invest claims there are no direct public market comparables for a company of SpaceX’s scale trading at such a multiple, with the valuation reflecting expectations of future dominance rather than current earnings.
The firm’s investment thesis on SpaceX has been developed over years, with the American aerospace manufacturer and space transport company currently representing 17.02% of net assets in its ARK Venture Fund.
“There is no established public market comparable for a company at this scale trading at that multiple,” the report states.
“The valuation reflects not what SpaceX earns today but what investors believe SpaceX will become.”
The analysis emphasises the need to assess SpaceX across its individual business segments, particularly as the company expands beyond launch services into communications and artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Starlink drives near-term financial performance
Underpinning ARK’s valuation on SpaceX is Starlink, which the firm describes as the company’s primary financial engine.
The satellite broadband network has surpassed 10 million global subscribers as of early 2026, with projected annual revenue exceeding $20 billion.
ARK estimates the broader satellite connectivity market could approach $160 billion annually at scale, with Starlink positioned to capture a disproportionate share due to its early-mover advantage and integration with SpaceX’s launch capabilities.
The company’s launch business remains foundational.
SpaceX conducted 165 orbital launches in 2025, accounting for approximately 85% of global spacecraft deployments, according to ARK’s analysis.
The firm attributes this dominance to cost reductions achieved through reusable rocket technology, particularly the Falcon 9 platform.
ARK estimates launch costs have fallen by roughly 95% since 2008, from about $15,600 per kilogram to under $1,000.
The development of the fully reusable Starship system, targeting costs below $100 per kilogram, is seen as a potential catalyst for further market expansion.
Orbital computing introduces new growth narrative
A more speculative component of the valuation stems from SpaceX’s February 2026 merger with xAI, which integrates artificial intelligence capabilities with launch and communications infrastructure.
ARK argues the combination enables the development of orbital data centres, with the potential to deliver computing capacity at costs approximately 25% lower than terrestrial alternatives.
The firm cites the absence of grid constraints, permitting delays and energy limitations as key advantages of space-based infrastructure.
The report references statements by Elon Musk indicating ambitions to deploy up to 100 gigawatts of AI computing capacity annually, though it acknowledges that such initiatives remain at an early stage and are not required to justify the current valuation.
Instead, ARK frames these projects as “optionality” - potential upside not fully incorporated into its base-case modelling.
Execution record underpins investor confidence
ARK’s analysis highlights SpaceX’s track record as a central factor supporting investor confidence.
The firm points to the successful deployment of reusable rockets and the rapid scaling of Starlink as evidence of the company’s ability to deliver on previously sceptical projections.
Starlink reached cash flow breakeven in 2023 and now operates a constellation exceeding 10,000 satellites, according to the report.
These milestones, ARK argues, demonstrate a pattern of execution that reduces perceived risk in forward-looking assumptions.
Meanwhile, the firm acknowledges that the valuation is inherently dependent on continued performance across core segments.
Starlink expansion, sustained reductions in launch costs and the commercial viability of new space-based markets remain critical variables.
Market faces new test of valuation discipline
The proposed IPO is expected to test investor appetite for high-multiple, long-duration growth assets at a time when interest rates remain elevated relative to the past decade.
ARK argues that companies staying private for longer has shifted the locus of value creation away from public markets, with investors who wait for listings potentially missing earlier phases of growth.
However, the transition to public ownership will subject SpaceX’s financials to greater scrutiny, particularly through its forthcoming S-1 filing.
“The public S-1 will provide the financial transparency that allows investors to pressure-test these assumptions rigorously,” the firm states.
If completed at the targeted valuation, the SpaceX listing would represent not only a record-breaking capital markets event but also a high-conviction bet on the expansion of economic activity beyond Earth — and on whether investors are willing to price that future today.
