Azzet reports on three stocks with market-moving updates to share today
Tyro jumps after confirming takeover interest
After receiving a speeding ticket - a please explain - from the ASX yesterday as to why the share price shot up 10%, shares in Tyro Payments (ASX: TYR) entered a trading halt at 3.34pm as the company scrambled to reply.
Shares were trading close to 10% higher when the stock resumed trading this morning after the fintech mid-cap confirmed that it was in play to be taken over.
Insider trading is supposed to be a big no no, but unexplained share price movements like this one suggest it’s not only alive and well and go largely unpunished, however, that’s another story.
Tyro said it was aware of information not yet publicly disclosed could explain the recent share price movements but relied on Listing Rule 3.1A to withhold immediate announcement of this information.
While Tyro claimed that to the best of its knowledge the undisclosed information remained confidential, clearly that wasn’t the case.
In a succinct market update today, Tyro told the market that over the past few months it had received unsolicited and non-binding interest from separate parties regarding the potential acquisition.
Despite being in play, the board made it clear the interest received so far is not at a level that it considered indicative of Tyro’s intrinsic value.
What is clearly attracting potential suitors to Tyro is company's transition from a loss to profitability and 22% annualised revenue growth which highlights its operational resilience.
As a result, the fintech provider of payment solutions to Australian merchants - which counts more than 71,000 merchants in its domestic network - has seen a 33% surge in its share price in the last quarter of 2025, reversing a five-year decline.
While Westpac and Kiwi payment terminal offering Smartpay have previously been in takeover discussions with Tyro, global fintech Stripe is also understood to have keenly observing Tyro.
However, the San Francisco-based company has kept its distance from reports linking the two companies.
Tyro launched on the ASX in 2019 with a market capitalisation of $1.37 billion but has shed more than $800 million of this value since.
More health sector transactions offset declining volume in hospitality, as consumers tightened their belts, helping Tyro to grow gross profit by 6.5% over the first half to $112 million.
Tyro Payments has a market cap of $631 million; the share price is up 37% in one year and up 46% year to date.
The stock appears to be in a long-term uptrend confirmed by multiple indicators.
Consensus is Strong Buy.
AGL slumps on major FY25 profit fall
Shares in AGL (ASX: AGL) were down around 12% at the open after the major electricity and gas supplier posted a 21.2% drop in FY25 core profit, citing lower wholesale power prices and narrower margins in energy retail due to intensifying competition.
While underlying net profit fell to $640 million for the year ended June 30, down from $812 million, it was well within the upgraded guidance AGL gave in February, however, it still missed the consensus forecast of $670 million.
In an attempt to frame today’s result for investors CEO Damien Nicks laboured the resilience and flexibility of its asset portfolio to mitigate the earnings impact of outages in its thermal plants.
“As we had previously announced, we expected a decrease in earnings compared to FY24 due to lower wholesale electricity prices resetting through contract positions,” he said.
“This result continues the recovery in AGL’s earnings and lays a solid foundation for the continued strategic investment in growth and the transition of AGL’s business.”
Overall, the company’s bottom line sank to a loss of $98 million, down from a $711 million profit a year earlier, on a $596 million charge, while revenue climbed 6% to $14.4 billion.
While AGL’s result wasn’t fantastic, the stock also appears to have been dragged down by rough love dished out to all utilities today, with the sector down 3.67% heading into lunch while the All Ords Index is down -0.60%.
There were some silvers of blue sky within AGL’s result, with strong customer growth, lifting total services to 4.56 million with notable gains in telecommunications and Netflix services.
But due to planned and unplanned outages, AGL faced lower coal plant availability.
Meanwhile, investment in growth remained a focal point for the stock, highlighted by the acquisition of South Australia's Virtual Power Plant, final investment decisions on major battery projects, and strategic moves in renewable energy and firming assets.
Key numbers announced today:
• Underlying earnings $2.010 billion, down 9% from FY24
• Operating free cash flow: $788 million, down 42%, reflecting increased tax paid and higher capex
• Final dividend: 25 cents per share, fully franked (total dividends of 48 cents for the year)
• Around $900 million deployed toward battery developments and strategic investments
Future outlook
AGL guided to FY26 underlying earnings of between $1.920 billion and $2.220 billion, and net profit of $500 million to $700 million.
With the Liddell Battery coming online in early 2026 the company expects plant availability and fleet flexibility to improve further.
AGL also told the market it expects to offset upcoming earnings impacts from coal and gas re-contracting through increased contributions from batteries and other flexible energy assets.
The company also plans to maintain its fully franked dividend.
Based on Barrenjoey’s observations, AGL’s aims to compensate for any earnings impact from coal and gas - recontracting with earnings from its investment in flexible assets and broader delivery of strategy - which highlights the size of the hole from gas contracts.
AGL has a market capitalisation of around $6 billion; the share price is around 19% over one year and down 12% in the last week.
The stock’s shares appear to be in a strong near-term rally within a longer-term bearish trend.
Consensus is Moderate Buy.
Treasury Wine struggles to hold early gains as investors second-guess China growth
Up around 4% at the open, shares in Treasury Wine Estate (ASX: TWE) were trading 0.9% higher at noon as investors started to make sense of today’s FY25 result and the impact of drinking trends in the all important China market.
While the standalone winemaker’s FY25 results came in line with expectations, softness in key markets gave investors lots to think about this morning.
The winemaker flagged a shift in alcohol consumption behaviour in China with large-scale banqueting giving way to smaller-scale occasions.
This trend has resulted in slower depletion of its Penfolds stock in the key market.
Managing director of the Penfolds division Tom King said a tightening in alcohol policies for government activities in recent months was impacting the market, although it was too early to assess the extent.
"China is a very dynamic market and things can change very quickly. We’ve got levers that we can pull," he said.
Overall, the winemaker lifted revenue by 6.5% to $2.99 billion for the 12 months ended June 30, while net profit after tax was up 342% to $437 million after one-off items dragged last year’s profits lower.
On the strength of a 15.5% rise in earnings before interest and tax at $470.6 million, the group lifted its final dividend payout to 20c per share, up from 19c a year ago, and announced a share buyback of up to $200 million.
Despite lots of good news embedded within today’s result, recent softness seen in Chinese consumption patterns have created something of overhang for the stock heading into FY26.
However, the winemaker’s CEO Tim Ford reassured the market that the group remained laser-focused on rebuilding its export business to China after tariffs were lifted.
Penfolds’ earnings was up 13.2% to $477 million due to Australian country of origin shipments to China, while Treasury Americas reported a 33.9% increase in earnings to $308.6 million, due to revenue growth in its luxury portfolio.
Based on continued positive momentum through several Asian markets, the group has guided "low to mid double-digit" earnings growth for Penfolds.
Meanwhile, given that a change of distributor in California "remains uncertain" the group anticipates an adverse impact to net sales revenue of around $50 million, which is expected to result in flat to slightly lower group earnings for FY26 – contrasting with consensus forecasts of around 3% growth.
Having run an initial ruler over today’s result, Citi analysts noted the China commentary has led them to become more cautious on Neutral-rated Treasury’s ability to deliver its Penfolds guidance in FY26 and FY27.
The company’s "incrementally more cautious tone on this region could lead to some of the China bulls on the stock to moderate their growth expectations," Citi added.
Treasury Wine Estate has a market capitalisation of $6.1 billion; the share price is down 36% in one year and up 0.86% in the last week.
The stock appears weak with little demand from investors.
Consensus is Moderate Buy.
This article does not constitute financial or product advice. You should consider independent advice before making financial decisions.