Azzet reports on three stocks with price moving updates today.
Treasury Wine Estate tumbles after major US impairment ~
After what has been a horror run for the Treasury Wine Estate (ASX: TWE) share price this year, the stock was sold off by 6% at the open after United States earnings and write-off warnings today.
However, 12 minutes into trading, the share price started bouncing higher and heading by 2:45 pm AEDT (3:45 am GMT) remains off just 0.8% lower with buyers, outnumbering sellers, clearly seeing value at current levels.
What the market reacted to this morning was a decision by the Penfold winemaker to take a scalpel to the value of its U.S.-based operation by $687 million on its U.S. goodwill.
News of today’s non-cash impairment only fuels growing market pessimism over the state of the Americas market and mounting speculation that the winemaker may have overpaid for its U.S. acquisitions.
Under its old corporate moniker, Foster’s Brewing Group, Treasury Wine paid around $3 billion, acquiring its first Californian vineyards in 2000.
Since then, those Californian wine assets - which the group added to with an extra US$2 billion in U.S. deals in recent years - have struggled to meet market expectations.
Newly appointed CEO Sam Fisher is expected to provide greater insight into additional impacts [of that impairment] on other assets at an investor and analyst conference mid-December.
Meanwhile, Fisher told the market today that softer long-term growth expectations in the U.S. wine market had eroded the impairment headroom flagged in its 2025 annual report, where it noted that an 11% annual reduction in future cash flows would push the buffer to zero.
The latest impairment to its 2026 interim results – which risks pushing the group into deeper losses for the year – follows a $290 million impairment in August 2024, which related to its disappointing sales within its commercial brands portfolio, including 19 Crimes, Pepperjack, Seppelt and Squealing Pig.
With Daou, Frank Family and Matua continuing to grow above market, RBC Capital Markets maintains an “outperform” rating with a target price of $9.80, but suspects continued softness in U.S. wine trends has negative impacts for long-term earnings growth outlook.
Specifically, the revised outlook is expected to lower long-term earnings forecasts for its Treasury Americas and Treasury Collective Americas units, triggering the write-down.
The final amount and allocation across assets will be confirmed with the group’s 2026 interim results and may extend beyond goodwill.
On 13 October, management withdrew FY26 earnings guidance, citing continued uncertainty in its core markets of the U.S. and China.
"Given the uncertainty that remains as to the outlook, TWE is not in a position to provide revised guidance at this point in time," management noted.
While first-quarter shipments for its FY26 met group expectations in “key markets”, management also flagged soft Penfolds sales in China.
“If the performance trends indicated by the preliminary data continue through F26, Penfolds depletions targets for F26 in China are unlikely to be achieved,” the group said.
Treasury Wine Estate has a market cap of $4.6 billion; the share price is down 49% in one year and up 2.69% in one week.
The stock’s shares appear to be in a long-term bearish trend, confirmed by multiple indicators.
Consensus is Moderate Buy.
Tungsten Mining soars after confirming major exploration target
Shares in Tungsten Mining (ASX: TGN) were up around 8.9% after the junior explorer updated the market on a new Exploration Target at the Mulgine Trench deposit, highlighting the global scale of its Mt Mulgine project located within the Murchison Region of Western Australia (WA).
The miner has reported a new exploration target of 165–200Mt at 0.10–0.12% WO₃ - an n-type semiconductor metal oxide - and 180–220ppm Mo at the Mulgine Trench deposit, equivalent to 165–240kt of contained WO₃.
Today’s target is in addition to the existing 247Mt Mineral Resource (2020) and is understood to reinforce Mt Mulgine as a globally significant critical-minerals project.
Drilling over a 1.4–1.5km strike has confirmed thick, continuous tungsten–molybdenum mineralisation open at depth and along strike, with high-grade domains associated with a Lower Tungsten–Molybdenum zone.
This new target supports ongoing studies toward a mid-2026 Pre-Feasibility Study and positions Mt Mulgine as a potential long-life tungsten supply hub.
Further drilling is planned in early 2026 to deepen and extend the resource base.
Commenting on today’s update, Tungsten Mining chairman Gary Lyons told the market that tungsten remains one of the world’s most critical and supply-constrained metals, and the continued strength in pricing underscores its strategic importance.
“This new Exploration Target confirms the scale and continuity of mineralisation at Mulgine Trench and strengthens the foundations of our work toward completing a Pre-Feasibility Study in mid-2026,” he said.
“As we aim to advance drilling, technical studies and project definition across Mt Mulgine, Tungsten Mining is positioning the project to play a meaningful role in global critical mineral supply chains.”
While tungsten isn’t exactly the most exciting commodity in the critical minerals suite, it’s considered a critical mineral by many countries, including the U.S., due to its use in military applications, transport and other industrial uses.
As a result, it’s been on a tear in 2025, with the price surging from around US$330 per metric tonne unit (equivalent to 10 kilograms) to more than US$700/mtu as of late November.
What’s underscored demand for tungsten is the decision by China – which controls around 80% of the supply of tungsten concentrate - back in February to ban export of tungsten concentrates.
A compound annual growth rate of 7.8% is forecast for the tungsten market between 2025 and 2033 to a total estimated value of US$11.6 billion.
“Current supply is around 90,000 tonnes per annum, and I don’t for one minute subscribe to the suggestion that that demand will rise to 180,000 tonnes per annum, but I do believe it will rise in excess of 100,000,” noted Lyons.
“And what’s so important is that deepening supply deficit is unlikely to improve to any degree.”
Meanwhile, in the first half of 2026, drilling is being planned to confirm continuity of mineralisation beneath the current Mt Mulgine Mineral Resource estimate to 300 metres vertical.
This will be completed with the intention of potentially increasing the project’s mine life.
In early October the miner released an indicated and inferred mineral resource estimate for gold at the Mt Mulgine project.
The indicated and inferred mineral resource estimate (MRE) was defined at the project’s Camp, Black Dog and Bobby McGee prospects, with the total MRE sitting at 1.9 million tonnes at 1.10 g/t Au for 67,500 ounces.
Located roughly 350 kilometres north-northeast of Perth, the Mt Mulgine project has seen historic drilling of 2551 reverse cycling (RC) and diamond holes since the 1960s, with past gold production of 880,206 tonnes for 47,254 ounces Au mined by Minjar Gold in 2014-2015.
Tungsten Mining has a market cap of $254 million; the share price is up 210% in one year and up 150% in the last month.
The stock appears to be in a strong bullish trend confirmed by multiple indicators.
Consensus does not cover this stock.
AUB Group tumbles after takeover talks fall over
Shares in AUB Group (ASX: AUB) were trading around 17.7% lower at $30.66 following revelations that the insurer-broker had terminated takeover talks with current suitors.
There was clearly little more for both parties to talk about after the consortium of Swedish private equity firm EQT and CVC Asia Pacific scrapped its $45 a share non-binding takeover offer valued at $5.25 billion.
In response, the board was quick to remind the market that it thought the $45 a share offer appropriately valued the company within current market conditions.
Commenting on today's announcement, AUB Group CEO Michael Emmett told the market that the diligence process reinforced confidence in AUB’s strategy and growth outlook.
With talks now closed, he said management is refocusing on organic initiatives and acquisition opportunities.
Meanwhile, AUB has reaffirmed its FY26 underlying net profit guidance of $215 million to $227 million, representing 7.4% to 13.4% earnings growth.
According to Jessica Amir, market strategist at online trading platform Moomoo, today’s outcome opens the door for rival bidders and gives retail investors a chance to buy the dip.
"Australian insurance companies remain attractive, despite a large player walking away from AUB," she said, noting that premiums have been rising and margins are expanding as interest rates stay elevated.
"Regardless of the failed takeover, the fundamentals remain intact - a clear 'nothing to see here' moment for long-term shareholders."
The group operates at 579 locations across Australia and serves nearly 1.2 million clients.
Last year, Odyssey Investment Partners, a U.S. private equity firm, reduced its stake in AUB Group by nearly $277 million.
Current major shareholders include First Sentier Investors and Capital World Investors, according to LSEG data.
The consortium’s takeover offer coincided with the release of AUB Group’s FY25 financial results, which included underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) of over $200 million, an increase of more than 17% from the previous year.
Emmett described FY25 as a year of “solid financial results, international expansion, and operational progress across all divisions.”
AUB Group has a market cap of $3.5 billion; the share price is down 6% in one year and down 18% in the last week.
The stock is in a long-term bullish pattern confirmed by multiple indicators.
Consensus is Moderate Buy.
This article does not constitute financial or product advice. You should consider independent advice before making financial decisions.
