Azzet reports on three stocks with price moving updates today.
Northern Star falls on guidance cut ~
Shares in Northern Star (ASX: NST) were trading 16.6% lower by 1:20 pm AEDT (2:20 am GMT) after the gold miner took a second scalpel to its production guidance in as many months.
After warning the market that hitting the bottom end of its 2025-26 financial year production guidance may now be tricky, management told the market that FY output will now be above 1.50 million ounces, down from its 2 January guidance of 1.6 to 1.7 million ounces.
Much of the lower guidance – which was initially cut from the October figure of 1.7-1.85 million ounces – is being attributed to weaker milling performance at its aging Kalgoorlie Super Pit and lower mining productivity across several Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines (KCMG) operations, notably, reduced output at Jundee.
Total gold sales for January and February were 220,000 ounces.
Commenting on today’s update, CEO Stuart Tonkin reminded the market that management was focused on preparing the business for stronger output once a major mill expansion comes online, in the face of major operational challenges.
Tonkin also made it clear that management’s focus over the next four months will be to set it up to achieve its full potential from the start of FY27 and not on the achievement of short-term guidance above all else.
“Front of mind for Management and the Board is that efforts to achieve the 2025-26 financial year forecast do not compromise the transition to the new plant and have negative implications for the first quarter next year,” he said.
“The production focus over this period will be on extracting ounces in the most effective way, from both a cost and mining efficiency perspective.”
While investors sold the stock off this morning, management pointed to new mill expansion, which remains on track for commissioning in early FY27 with 800 contractors on site.
Meanwhile, management has commenced work on producing medium term forecasts and expects to release these late in 2026.
“We have heard the clear feedback from our investors on the importance of a more granular understanding of the medium-term production, cost and capital outlook for our asset base,” Tonkin said.
“This work is underway and we are committed to presenting this information to the market later this year.”
Between early August 2025 and early March 2026, the share price more than doubled due to record-high gold prices, a 49% surge in half-year net profit (H1 FY26) to $760 million.
However, the recent selloff reflects the market’s concerns over production headwinds.
Northern Star has a market cap of $32.9 billion; the share price is up 32% in one year and down 21% in the last month.
While the stock’s 200-day moving average is trending upwards and highlights long-term investor interest in the stock, the 5-day moving average is below the 20-day moving average.
Consensus is Moderate Buy.
Syrah Resources dives on US tariff hit
Shares in Syrah Resources (ASX: SYR) were trading 28.3% lower at noon following revelations that the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) has reversed last month’s decision to place huge tariffs of between 160% and 170% on graphite active anode material (AAM) coming out of China.
The about-face by the DOC follows the U.S. International Trade Commission’s decision to reject tariffs on Chinese graphite anode materials, which is a setback to efforts to build a domestic U.S. supply chain for lithium-ion batteries.
It’s understood that the ruling could delay sales from the Vidalia plant and limit near-term demand growth for U.S.-produced anode materials.
However, managing director Shaun Verner told the market the decision won’t stop the Australian graphite producer from ramping up its Vidalia facility in Louisiana, the only domestic producer of graphite anode material in the U.S.
He also added that the Vidalia AAM facility is cost-competitive with Chinese and Indonesian when producing at commercial AAM volumes.
“Syrah's Vidalia AAM facility is producing high-quality AAM and has full readiness for commercial ramp-up,” said Verner.
“The facility is cost competitive with Chinese and Indonesian when producing at commercial AAM volumes. The Company will continue to pursue the ramp-up of production at Vidalia and commercial AAM sales with customers.”
Despite the DOC’s latest decision, Syrah continues to maintain that AAM from China was being sold and imported into the U.S. at "unfairly low and subsidised prices for use in lithium-ion batteries.
Due to production stoppages following protests, a subsequent restart of operations, and significant share dilution, the share price is trading well under half last October’s $0.515 share price.
Syrah Resources has a market cap of $236 million; the share price is down 31% on one year and down 23% in the last week.
The stock’s shares appear to be weak with little demand from investors.
Consensus is Moderate Buy.
ikeGPS Group falls after S&P rebalancing
ikeGPS Group (ASX: IKE) appears to losing ground, down 0.3% this afternoon, after being removed from the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries index as part of the March 2026 quarterly rebalance.
While selling activity relates to passive funds and benchmark-aware investors - who must reweight their portfolios to match the new index constituents – the market appears to have overlooked today’s decision by broker Canaccord to initiate coverage on the stock with a Buy.
To the uninitiated, ikeGPS is an American-based Kiwi company that provides services for measuring, modelling, and managing power and telecommunications assets.
The broker’s Buy rating appears to be based on a company's growth potential and valuation discounts relative to its peers.
ikeGPS provides a software platform for electric utilities and communications companies to measure and manage infrastructure assets.
The company benefits from significant investment in telecommunications and utility infrastructure, and analysts often cite the "multi-decade" cycle of grid modernisation and 5G rollout as a primary reason for a bullish stance.
In recent performance updates, ikeGPS management highlighted a strategic push toward becoming earnings positive, supported by increasing gross margins, which provide greater operational leverage.
During its performance update for the nine months to 31 December 2025, the company reported the Exit Run Rate (ERR) of platform subscription revenue at NZ$21.1 million annualised – up 35% on the previous period.
Total revenue of NZ$19.8 million was up 7% on the previous period, and management reiterated FY26 guidance for 35% or greater growth in platform subscription revenue and earnings breakeven on a monthly run-rate basis by the end of FY26.
Commenting on the 3Q update, the company’s CEO, Glenn Milnes, told the market that the company is well-positioned to deliver sustained growth and capture an increasing share of the large and growing market for electric utility infrastructure software solutions.
“The macro-market environment for IKE's business remains highly favourable. Across North America, electric utilities, communications companies, and their engineering service providers are facing unprecedented infrastructure investment requirements driven by grid modernisation, renewable energy integration, electrification of transportation, deployment of 5G and fibre networks, and aging infrastructure replacement needs,” he said.
“These tailwinds are translating into strong and sustained demand for IKE's platform. Our sales pipeline remains robust, and we continue to add new customers at a healthy pace.”
The stock is currently trading at a 47% discount to Bell Potter’s target price of $1.17.
The company has total cash of NZ$32.3 million as at 31 December 2025, net receivables of NZ$2.9 million, with no debt.
ikeGPS has a market cap of $151 million; the share price is up 7.5% in one year and down 9% in the last week.
The stock’s shares are in a downtrend confirmed by multiple indicators.
In the medium-term, the 5-day moving average is beneath the 50-day moving average.
Consensus is moderate Buy.
This article does not constitute financial or product advice. You should consider independent advice before making financial decisions.
