Azzet reports on three ASX stocks with price moving updates today.
James Hardie slumps despite broker upgrade ~
Investors clearly didn’t pay too much attention to Citi’s decision to upgrade James Hardie (ASX: JHX) to Buy from Neutral (price target up at $36.50 from $33) with the building products maker’s share price down 4.9% by 2:10 pm AEDT (3:10 am GMT).
Since tumbling from its most recent high of $45.67 mid-August, the stock is now trading close to 40% lower after the company released some pretty ordinary first-quarter FY26 results, with net sales of $899.9 million, down 9% year-on-year, operating income of $138.6 million, a 41% decrease and adjusted earnings of $225.5 million, down 21%.
But Citi believes the company is now tracking ahead of expectations, with earnings risk now looking manageable despite U.S. headwinds, where the housing market remains in the doldrums.
“Overall, we estimate the risk/reward is attractive in JHX,” broker’s analyst Samuel Seow noted.
Seow estimates that earnings are tracking around $100 million or 10% above full-year guidance, with underlying volumes down by a mid-single-digit percentage versus a high single-digit drop implied by the guidance.
Citi attributes stronger performance – beyond the struggling southern U.S states – to improving results in renovations and multi-family housing.
“We estimate JHX is tracking ahead of expectations, driven by non-Southern exposure, R&R and multi’s,” Seow said.
Seow expects the recent AZEK acquisition in the U.S. to provide an earnings buffer during FY26.
As a result, he believes the stock’s earnings risk looks manageable, even if there isn’t a material uptick in U.S. housing activity.
At noon, James Hardie was trading around 20% ($28.67) below Citi’s target price.
The market’s negative response to Citi’s upgrade suggests the market is still reeling from disapproval over the recent deal to acquire AZEK, in which the board agreed to trade a 26% stake in the company.
All three directors who were on James Hardie’s board at the time of that deal – the chairwoman Lloyd, former Bunnings UK boss PJ Davis and Rada Rodriguez – were unceremoniously voted off the board at its AGM.
What triggered investor contempt for the stock was the manner in which the board signed off on the disastrous $14 billion acquisition of U.S. group Azek and its deliberate actions to avoid investor control.
Instead of giving investors a vote, it made its New York Stock Exchange listing a priority, while also ignoring failings within management’s pay structure.
More than 67% of proxy votes were directed against the re-election of Lloyd, and the board lost a $US1 million ($1.52 million) pay rise they were seeking at the annual meeting in Dublin on Thursday morning.
In addition to a massive strike against its remuneration report, shareholders also voted down one of CEO Aaron Erter’s bonus packages and a resolution to increase board fees by US$1 million.
However, in what appeared to be something akin to an act of contrition, Erter used last Thursday’s AGM to admit the bleeding obvious:
“We also know we have more work to do, and we take the perspectives of all shareholders seriously.”
However, it remains to be seen if the Australian investors will agitate for more board-related bloodshed, with some fund managers eyeballing replacement Australian directors in an attempt to further rebuild lost trust.
The annual meeting on Thursday concluded in 17 minutes, with the company defending its decisions and offering no apology to investors for the board’s actions.
James Hardie has a market cap of $12.3 billion; the share price is down 40% in one year and down 15% in the last week.
The stock’s shares appear to be in a long-term bearish trend, confirmed by a falling 200-day moving average.
However, there are rallies occurring at shorter time frames.
The 5-day moving average is above the 50-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is rising.
This is very bullish and means that investors see opportunity in this stock.
Consensus is Moderate Buy.
Goodman Group slips on trading update
Shares in Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) were trading 3.2% lower after the company revealed strong Q1 FY26 operational results and reaffirmed its positive earnings outlook.
The company reported $12.4 billion of development work in progress and reaffirmed its forecast for 9% operating EPS growth this year.
Overall, Goodman is progressing its $17.5 billion development pipeline - with data centres accounting for roughly 75% - maintaining high occupancy (96.1%) and expanding capital for new data centre partnerships in Europe and Australia.
Meanwhile, the company aims to enhance its data centre capacity in supply-constrained metropolitan markets, leveraging demand for AI and cloud infrastructure, with development activity expected to increase in the second half of FY26.
Commenting in today’s update, Greg Goodman, group CEO, told the market that logistics customers are focused on significant capital investment in AI and robotic technology, to drive automation and productivity gains.
“Our sites are predominantly located in highly supply-constrained, metropolitan markets, where there's significant demand for power to service cloud customers,” Goodman said.
“We're focused on speed to market, commencing construction, and activating sites to provide certainty of delivery.”
Goodman also believes the company’s strong liquidity position provides financial flexibility to support capital investment in its overall development program.
Looking forward, Goodman aims to lift data centre WIP power capacity to approximately 0.5 GW by June 2026, with development activity more heavily weighted to the second half.
On the back of continued strong enquiry in key market segments, management plans to pursue large-scale sites to serve growing demand for cloud and AI infrastructure.
Other key numbers announced today include:
- Annual net property income (NPI) growth of 4.2% across partnerships
- Total property portfolio increased to $85.9 billion
Meanwhile, industrial development starts remain subdued, while sentiment has started to improve, and opportunities continue to emerge with larger logistics occupiers, who are focused on improving productivity through investment in automation and site consolidation.
With the company’s five-gigawatt powerbank and its capacity expected to deliver sustained earnings growth - as development yields improve – Morgans has an ‘accumulate’ recommendation and 12-month price target of $38.40 on the stock.
It remains unclear what the market didn’t like about Goodman’s update today.
But what may have contributed to sellers far outweighing buyers today are growing concerns over fractures appearing in the AI narrative and its corresponding impact on the need for data centres.
While the data centre investment boom is arguably real, there’s growing realisation that tomorrow’s winners will be those who recognise that they are not just real estate with servers, but complex operational systems requiring sophisticated protection.
Goodman Group has a market cap of $64.1 billion; the share price is down 13% in one year and down 7% in the last week.
The stock’s shares appear to be in a near-term downtrend, confirmed by its 20-day moving average… specifically, the 20-day moving average is falling.
Consensus is Moderate Buy.
WIN Metals tanks after reporting promising drill results
Shares in WIN Metals (ASX: WIN) slumped by 14.9% today despite the junior minerals explorer announcing promising assay results from its maiden drilling campaign at the Radio Gold Project, WA, which revealed multiple high-grade gold intercepts, including up to 33.95 g/t Au and 1m at 30.65g/t from the Repeater prospect.
Mineralisation remains open northwards and at depth, confirming continuity from the historic Radio mine.
Portal prospect drilling also produced near-surface hits up to 5.85g/t.
The results highlight the project’s open-pit and underground potential, with additional assays pending for the Radio South zone.
Commenting on today’s update, WIN Metals CEO Steve Norregaardth told the market that outstanding first results from the maiden drill campaign at Radio demonstrate clear validation of the project’s potential.
“Hitting ounce dirt (33.95g/t) at Repeater demonstrates the high grade nature of the mineralised system with 14g/t gold at depth on our very first pass reinforces that this system has scale and continuity beyond just the historical Radio mine,” he said.
“Repeater is shaping up as a genuine extension of the high-grade Radio deposit — with both open pit and underground potential already evident.”
With infrastructure in place and Repeater only a hundred metres to the north of Radio, he believes the company is only scratching the surface of what the extent of mineralisation could be.
“… but what we do know is its high grade! Momentum is building rapidly, and these early results position the Project as a standout growth asset capable of delivering shareholder value in a rising gold market.”
While today’s results are highly encouraging, reinforcing the potential for a shallow, readily accessible gold directly adjacent to existing mine infrastructure, the market decided to sell the stock off.
Given that the stock has rallied hard since an initial trading update on 19 September and an announced $2.35 million capital raise two days later, investors may have concluded that the bulk of the upside had already been factored into the price.
With the share price up over threefold since 19 September, some investors may have viewed today’s update as an opportune time to lock-in gains.
WIN Metals has a market cap of $27 million; the share price is up 47% in one year and up 122% year to date.
The stock is in a strong bullish trend, confirmed by multiple indicators.
Consensus does not cover this stock.
This article does not constitute financial or product advice. You should consider independent advice before making financial decisions.
