Azzet reports on three stocks with price moving updates today.
IperionX sinks after damning report into its technology ~
Shares in IperionX (ASX: IPX) fell by over 20% at the open - but by 2 pm AEDT (3 am GMT) had pared loss to 6.6% - after the release of a damning report by short seller, Spruce Point Management, resulted in an immediate investor selloff.
What rattled the market this morning were the doubts raised by Spruce over claims by IperionX that its new titanium production techniques have the ability to disrupt the long-established industry norm.
Spruce also raised concerns over the accuracy of the company’s financial reporting.
Assuming Spruce is right, the potential impact on IperionX valuation could be far-reaching.
After conducting a forensic review of IperionX and its ambitions of becoming a vertically integrated producer (mining to production) of titanium powders and products, Spruce believes investor expectations are too high, with the company potentially facing a downside of up to 95%.
“We believe that investor expectations are too high, and it faces significant challenges in commercial efforts that may not be fully reflected in its valuation,” Spruce noted in its 93-page research report.
“…we do not believe the end markets to be attractive or that its highly promoted Hydrogen Assisted Metallothermic Reduction technology (HAMRTM) process is likely to "revolutionise" the industry or displace the 70-year established Kroll process. As such, we question IPX's economic rationale for expanding capacity when it has few customer contracts and no historical revenue," Spruce said.
In response to these claims, IperionX provided a detailed response, which included an update on its patented technologies, U.S. government support, sales contracts, and its addressable market.
“IperionX maintains confidentiality, data-security and intellectual-property controls that meet the stringent contracting requirements of the U.S. Department of War (DoW),” said the company, which also noted that Spruce did not engage with IperionX management at any time before releasing its short seller report.
“IperionX remains focused on executing the commercial scale-up of titanium production and manufacturing in Virginia.”
Given that the IperionX share price has regained some lost ground since the open suggests investors are torn between question marks over revolutionary qualities of the HAMRTM process and suspicions short seller is simply feathering its own objectives by driving the price down.
Originally a penny hopeful called TAO Commodities, (then Hyperion Metals), IperionX – which is also listed on the Nasdaq - has a market cap $1.8 billion market cap.
The stock’s share price has increased fourfold since trading as low as $2.21 in early April.
However, since mid-October, when it reached a high of $9.21, the share price has been on a straight descent to today’s $5.015.
Today’s scepticism over IperionX’s technology claims is not new.
The stock entered a trading halt late last week after an American activist investor cited alleged inaccuracies in its accounts and questioned whether it could commercialise its technology.
North Carolina-based IperionX is trading at 9.7x and 24x book value and 2026E revenues vs. the specialty metal industry median of 1.4x and 1.8x, respectively.
To the uninitiated, IperionX produces titanium alloys, titanium products, and critical minerals, using patented metal technologies to produce performance titanium alloys, from titanium minerals or scrap titanium, at lower energy, cost and carbon emissions.
The company recently received a leg up after receiving US$47 million ($71 million) from the U.S. Defence Department to accelerate production, as part of the White House push to secure domestic production of critical minerals.
While the stock’s 200-day moving average is trending higher, there is significant evidence that the long-term bullish trend is near an end.
Consensus is Strong Buy.
Endeavour regains early losses after revealing soft start to FY26
Long-suffering shareholders witnessed further deterioration in the share price of Endeavour Group (ASX: EDV) at the open, with the former Woolworths spinoff trading 1.4% lower in early deals after revealing a soft start to FY26.
It’s no secret that spinoffs typically take a year two hit their straps post demerger; however, since the demerger was finalised on June 24, 2021, the booze retailer and hospitality company – best known for BWS and Dan Murphy brands – share price has traded progressively lower.
After bouncing as high as $7.93 mid-July 2022, the share price is down over 50% to $3.67.
The retailer’s interim CEO, Kate Beattie, tried to reassure the market that, despite an underwhelming start to FY26, the group is looking forward to an improving outlook.
The group’s retail division posted sales of $2.5 billion, down 1.4%, with combined BWS and Dan Murphy’s sales declining 1% the quarter.
But due to what Beattie described as “targeted and well-executed promotions during school holidays and footy finals season” at today’s AGM, she told shareholders that the momentum shifted positively in September and continued into October.
What gave the market some glimpse of blue sky today was the company’s hotels division - with 350-plus hotels - which recorded sales up 4.4% to $592 million, supported by investments in renewals, gaming machines, and expanded accommodation offerings.
The introduction of a new pub loyalty platform and investment in hotel renewals contributed to a positive performance in the hospitality sector, while the company also reported strong cash flow and reduced net debt, enabling dividend payments at the top of their target range.
“We are really encouraged by the early signs we’re seeing which reinforce the underlying strength and growth potential of the business and our brands,” Beattie told the market today.
Incoming CEO Jayne Hrdlicka is expected to update the market on the findings of the company’s ongoing strategy review in the first half of calendar 2026.
Shareholders expressed their frustration at today’s AGM with the board narrowly escaping a first strike against its remuneration report.
Interim chair Duncan Makeig conceded that the company needed to do better, but after four years as a standalone company on the ASX, the market has clearly lost patience with this stock.
At FY25, Endeavour posted a $426 million net profit for the 2025 financial year, marking a 15.8% downturn on FY24, with weaker liquor spend and supply chain disruption weighing on sales.
The company declared total dividends of 18.8 cents per share, down 13.8% from FY24, but topping estimates of 18 cents per share.
During the FY25 results, the company plans to accelerate investment across its hotel network in the first half of this financial year and expects to add two net Dan Murphy's stores and eight net BWS stores during the six-month period.
The stock managed to regain early morning losses, with the share trading just 0.1% lower this afternoon.
Endeavour Group has a market cap of $6.5 billion; the share price is down 12% in one year and up 3% in one month.
The stock’s shares appear to be weak with little demand from investors.
Consensus is Hold.
Alcidion soars after expanding contract with Leidos Australia
Shares in Alcidion Group (ASX: ALC) were trading over 12.2% higher at $0.11 this afternoon following news that the healthcare software producer has expanded its contract with Leidos Australia.
It’s understood that Alcidion will supply the government, science, and technology solutions company with additional Miya Precision software modules that will help Leidos deliver further solution components to the Commonwealth of Australia.
Contract extensions are expected to add $12.3 million through to June 2028, including $2.5 million in additional annual recurring revenue (AAR) and the balance as implementation revenue, with $5.5 million–$6.5 million expected to be recognised in FY26.
The new term aligns with Alcidion’s larger existing Leidos contract, which has potential extensions out to 2036, reinforcing a long-duration revenue pipeline and deeper embedded use of Alcidion’s clinical decision support technology across Australian healthcare settings.
Late September, Alcidion announced the signing of a $6.8 million contract expansion with North Cumbria Integrated Care NHS Foundation Trust (NCIC) to deliver MediViewer as an expansion to the Miya Precision Electronic Patient Record (EPR) solution, providing seamless access to scanned and historical documents in clinical workflows.
FY25 was a record-setting year for Alcidion with total revenue of $40.8 million, up 10% year on year, with 63% derived from UK operations and 37% from ANZ.
Annual recurring revenue now stands at $28.5 million, up 31%, underpinning predictable, high-quality revenue growth.
Underlying earnings of $5.1 million represents an improvement of $8.5 million compared with the previous year, alongside disciplined operating cost management and positive operating cash flow of $5.8 million.
Cash at year-end was $17.7 million, with no debt, providing significant balance sheet flexibility as we pursue further growth opportunities.
Alcidion entered FY26 with $34 million already secured in contracted revenue for the year, a strong pipeline, and an expanding installed base.
Alcidion Group has a market cap of $147 million; the share price is up 87% in one year and up 23% in the last week.
The stock’s share price appears to be in a strong bullish trend, confirmed by multiple indicators.
Consensus is Moderate Buy.
