Azzet reports on three stocks with price moving updates today.
GrainCorp slides after slashing guidance ~
Shares in GrainCorp (ASX: GNC) were trading 14.3% lower by 2:15 pm AEDT (3:15 am GMT) after tumbling as low as $5.81 at the open, with the market clearly irked by the major pruning the Australian agribusiness made to its FY26 earnings and profit.
Citing oversupply and pressure on margins due to weak global prices, management guided to FY26 underlying earnings (EBITDA) in the range of $200 million to $240 million, down from $308 million in FY25, and underlying net profit after tax of $20 million to $50 million, compared with $87 million a year before.
It’s understood that guidance excludes business transformation costs and the impact of the sale of GrainsConnect Canada.
In response to pressure on margins and volumes -due to slow grower selling on the east coast and reduced incentives for grain delivery - management told the market today that it was accelerating cost management measures to ensure sustainability while maintaining reliable services for growers.
While guidance remains subject to variables like grain volumes, export timing, and oilseed margins, also reminded investors that its balance sheet is strong and reaffirmed confidence in its ongoing strategic direction.
Commenting on today’s update, GrainCorp CEO Robert Spurway told the market that the company’s global grain markets remain in cyclical oversupply with low prices, while grower selling across east coast Australia has been slow, pushing export margins to multi-year lows.
“Despite strong ECA production volumes, with ABARES estimating a 2025-26 ECA winter crop of 31.2 million tonnes (mmt), the current abundance of global supply and low grain prices have reduced incentives for growers to deliver grain to market,” he said.
“As a result, GrainCorp is experiencing lower margins on grain handled in FY26.”
Noteworthy numbers within today’s update include:
- FY26 underlying EBITDA guidance: $200–240 million (FY25: $308 million).
- FY26 underlying NPAT guidance: $20–50 million (FY25: $87 million).
- Export volumes expected: 5.5–6.5 million tonnes (FY25: 7.0mmt).
- Receival volumes anticipated: 11.0–12.0 million tonnes (FY25: 13.3mmt).
- Nutrition and Energy average crush margins steady with FY25.
- Agri energy contribution expected to be lower due to US biofuels uncertainty.
While agri-energy contributions are expected to be lower due to uncertainty around U.S. biofuels policy, in nutrition and energy, average crush margins and animal nutrition contributions are expected to be in line with FY25.
Management will update investors on further market developments, including new season opportunities late in the year, at the AGM on 18 February.
However, before the AGM update, investors should watch out for material consensus downgrades by brokers in the coming days.
Now trading at a four-year low of $6.11, GrainCorp shares have experienced significant declines since November 2025.
In addition to disappointing FY25 results and a weak outlook, the market has also responded negatively to the revelation last December that the sale of its Canadian joint venture for CAN$150 million, following poor financial performance, is expected to result in a loss of $5 million to $10 million on the transaction.
GrainCorp has a market cap of $1.3 billion; the share price is down 18% in one year and down 15% in the last week.
The stock’s shares appear to be in a medium-term downtrend, confirmed by multiple indicators. Specifically, the 5-day moving average is beneath the 50-day moving average, and the Stochastic Oscillator is trending lower.
Consensus is Moderate Buy.
Estrella Resources slips after disclosing option agreement
Shares in Estrella Resources (ASX: ESR) were trading around 5.4% lower following a halt that was originally issued on Thursday, after WA-based junior explorer confirmed an A$2 million option agreement with Lightview Asset to partially underwrite the exercise of its existing quoted options.
Funds are expected to support emerging manganese assets in Timor-Leste and existing mineral projects in Western Australia.
However, while the deal provides funding certainty for the company, it also puts a floor on capital that may be dilutive if existing option holders do not exercise their positions, which may explain why the share price fell at the open.
It’s understood that the listed options, trading under the code ESROB, are exercisable at $0.018 each and expire on 13 December 2026.
Under the terms of the Underwriting Agreement, Lightview Asset will underwrite the exercise of 111,111,111 options, representing an underwritten amount of $2,000,000 before costs.
This involves Lightview Asset subscribing or procuring subscriptions for the number of shares equal to the number of underwritten options not exercised by the expiry date, known as the Shortfall Shares.
As an unrelated party, Lightview Asset will receive a fee of 6% (excluding GST) of the final underwritten amount for its services.
The Underwriting Agreement contains standard commercial terms and includes market-standard termination events as detailed in Appendix 1 of the announcement.
Any Shortfall Shares issued to the underwriters are expected to be issued in accordance with ASX Listing Rule 7.2 (Exception 10).
This means they will not require shareholder approval, nor will they count toward the company’s placement capacity under ASX Listing Rule 7.1.
The key terms of the binding Underwriting Agreement have been summarised by the company in its ASX announcement.
To the uninitiated, Estrella Resources is a minerals explorer and developer focussed on emerging manganese assets in Timor Leste, plus minerals projects in WA.
The share price has been bouncing higher since late January, when it told the market that recent assays from Ira Miri located in Timor-Leste, have continued to reinforce the project’s exceptional grade profile.
Standout hits included 5.2 metres grading 39.6% manganese, highlighted by a bonanza 2.5m section running at 54% manganese. Another hole returned 6.2m at 45.3% manganese.
Commenting on the market update, managing director Chris Daws told the market that Estrella continues to lead the way in the virtually unexplored region of Timor-Leste.
Through the high-grade market sample and highly prospective Ira Miri Manganese project, he expects the company to potentially sell and export up to 30,000 tonnes of ore.
“This step is crucially important as it enables stronger relationships with potential export partners, it will generate extremely valuable geological data and is also a source of royalties for Estrella as well as the Government of Timor-Leste," he said.
The sampling program is also expected to give Estrella the chance to put the ore through its paces, carrying out detailed metallurgical and commercial test work that could prove pivotal in shaping a clear, longer-term development pathway.
Meanwhile, Estrella has also been quietly building scale at its other Timor-Leste cornerstone, the Werumata limestone project, where drilling continues to firm up what could be a genuinely long-life industrial asset.
Estrella Resources has a market cap of $80 million; the share price is up 16% in one year and has jumped over sevenfold since late August 2024.
As of February 2, 2026, Estrella Resources Limited holds around $6.57 million in cash and maintains zero debt.
The stock is in a strong bullish trend confirmed by multiple indicators. Specifically, a 5-day moving average of the stock price is above the 50-day moving average.
Consensus does not cover this stock.
Brightstar Resources tanks after announcing major capital raise
Shares in Brightstar Resources (ASX: BTR) were trading 21.4% lower this afternoon after the small cap gold explorer announced a major capital raise at a significant discount to the market price before the trading halt last Thursday.
Brightstar has received binding commitments from tier one institutional investors to raise $175 million at a discount of 50 cents per new share, which is lower than the previous closing price of 63 cents.
It’s this discount, along with the dilution of existing shares - as up to 350 million new shares are issued - that resulted in downward pressure on the share price today.
While existing shareholders will also have the opportunity to participate, they only have access to 10 million new shares via an SPP, with a record date of 30 January 2026.
Commenting on today’s update, Brightstar’s managing director, Alex Rovira, told the market that the near-term development of its Goldfields Hub enables Brightstar to underpin its position as an emerging WA gold producer that will generate outstanding financial metrics and unlock significant value for shareholders.
“To emerge with all the equity funding required to build our Goldfields Hub, as well as a substantial budget that enables accelerated pre-development activities at Sandstone and to fully fund Sandstone to FID, is an amazing opportunity for Brightstar that enables us to maintain the momentum of de-risking our portfolio of advanced gold projects,” he said.
“We are steadfastly focused on delivering the production illustrated in the DFS 2.0, which outlined a clear pathway to building a standalone gold producer with an average production profile of +75koz pa for six years.”
Rovira expects this production to underpin Brightstar’s future cash flows and unlock the material value of the significant Sandstone Gold Project.
Today’s update follows revelations late January that the miner is transforming its legacy Beta mill into a modern 1.5 million per tonne (Mtpa) processing hub at Laverton, fast-tracking its Goldfields hub development while de-risking the project.
Initial Laverton production is projected at 70,000 ounces per annum, excluding 30,000 ounces from the current Fish and Second Fortune operations.
Mineral resources at Lord Byron and Lady Shenton total 13.5Mt at 1.4 grams per tonne g/t gold, representing 600,000 ounces of gold to underpin near-term production.
Brightstar has also completed a competitive front-end engineering design (FEED) process.
Brightstar Resources has a market cap of $38 million; the share price is down 6% in one year and down 18% in the last week.
The stock appears to be in a strong bullish trend, confirmed by multiple indicators.
Specifically, a 5-day moving average of the stock price is above the 20 and 50-day moving averages.
Consensus is Strong Buy.
This article does not constitute financial or product advice. You should consider independent advice before making financial decisions.
