Azzet reports on three ASX stocks with price moving updates today.
CSL tumbles on barrage of bad news ~
Shares in CSL (ASX: CSL) were trading 14.8% lower by 1:50 pm AEDT (2:50 am GMT) - touching fresh seven-year lows of $176.01 - with market sentiment making management abundantly clear what it thought of today’s triple-whammy announcements.
Firstly, the global biotech giant took a scalpel to its revenue forecasts, citing falling United States vaccination rates, which have in turn quashed plans to demerge its Seqirus vaccines business - one of the company’s three main business units - any time soon.
Due to volatility in the U.S. influenza market, Chairman Brian McNamee said CSL will not be demerging Seqirus and listing it on the ASX in FY26 as previously expected.
“Timing will be revisited when we are confident that market conditions would support the maximisation of shareholder value,” he said.
What further fuelled investor angst today were revelations that the entire board could be removed at next Thursday’s AGM after shareholders voted against its executive pay report for the second consecutive year.
Within its third missive to shareholders today, management told the market that a 12% drop in U.S. vaccination rates in the northern hemisphere winter would have a material impact on earnings at Seqirus.
CEO Paul McKenzie now expects net profit to grow between 4 and 7% in FY26, down from the company’s August forecast of 7 to 10% growth, while revenue forecasts were also cut to between 2 and 3% for the current year, down from 4 to 5% previously.
Long-term forecasts for FY27 and FY28 were also downgraded to high-single digit revenue growth.
“While there are some scenarios in which group NPATA growth may touch double digits, we believe high single-digit growth is a more appropriate expectation until the US influence market improves,” McKenzie told shareholders today.
Meanwhile, CSL plans to cut 3000 jobs as part of a cost-cutting drive focused on the consolidation of its global research and development network.
While Morgans is now looking forward to FY27 and beyond to regain confidence in CSL’s sustainable growth, RBC Capital Markets doubts the shelving of the Seqirus demerger is a big deal, given that most investors did not expect it to create value.
CSL has a market cap of $85.5 billion; the share price is down 40% in one year and down 18% in the last week.
The stock appears to have completed a medium-term rally that took the 5-day moving average above the 50-day moving average and will likely continue its bearish trend.
Consensus is Moderate Buy.
AUB soars after confirming it is ‘in play’
Shares in AUB Group (ASX: AUB) were up by 8.4% after the insurance firm confirmed it had received a non-binding indicative takeover offer of $45 a share cash from Swedish private equity firm EQT and granted due diligence for six weeks.
Today’s offer price – which follows a previous one made by EQT to acquire AUB for $43 per share mid-September - values the company at $5.25 billion but would be reduced by any dividends or other distributions declared or paid by AUB other than the $0.66 per share dividend announced as part of the company’s FY25 results.
Today’s offer price of $45 a share represents a 40.2% premium to the closing price last Friday.
The number of shares changing hands more than doubled Friday's levels to 447,000 shares traded.
In a second statement posted to the ASX on Tuesday, management told the market that:
“After careful consideration, the AUB board determined that it would be in the best interests of AUB shareholders to enter into a confidentiality and exclusivity agreement with EQT to further progress the proposal as exclusivity was a key condition of the proposal.”
Management also made it clear there was “no guarantee that the proposal will result in a transaction”, and shareholders did not have to take any action at this stage.
Founded in 1985, AUB is an S&P/ASX 200 stock comprising retail and wholesale insurance brokers and underwriting agencies, which operates in about 580 locations globally.
The company now has around one million clients and manages about $11 billion in insurance premiums.
Having underperformed peers, including Steadfast Group, AUB’s shares have been range trading over the past year but received a short-lived kicker in May following a trading update.
Due to gains across almost all segments of its business from Australian broking to BizCover, NZ Broking and wholesale broker Tysers, AUB reported a 12.7% increase in underlying revenue to $1.5 billion for FY25, while underlying net profit after tax rose 17% to $200 million.
AUB also guided to $215 million to $227 million in underlying profit for the financial year 2026, or a 7.4% to 13.4% increase.
Since entering the Australian market in 2020, EQT has deployed over $10 billion in capital locally.
While EQT is yet to secure a financial services player locally, the firm worked with U.S. buyout firm TA Associates on an unsuccessful bid for Perpetual’s wealth and corporate trust business last year and made three indicative bids for Iress in 2021.
AUB Group has a market cap of $4.5 billion; the share price is up 21% in one year and up 22% in the last week.
While the stock’s 200-day moving average is trending upwards and highlights long-term investor interest in the stock, the 20-day moving average is falling as upwards momentum wanes.
Consensus is Moderate Buy.
Fluence Corp jumps after disclosing water treatment deal
Shares in Fluence Corporation (ASX: FLC) were up around 13.8% after the wastewater treatment and reuse solutions provider told the market it has secured a contract worth more than US$12 million to supply an ultrapure water treatment system for a combined-cycle power plant in Saudi Arabia.
The project, for Spanish multinational engineering and construction company Técnicas Reunidas, underscores Fluence’s expanding presence in the Middle East and its commitment to delivering efficient and sustainable water treatment solutions for the power and energy sector.
The contract, which will see Técnicas Reunidas deploy Fluence’s Niroflex technology, aligns with Fluence’s global strategy and involves collaboration between its teams in the Middle East and Argentina.
Management expects the contract – which highlights the company’s strategic partnerships and operational capabilities – to be completed in 2026 and start-up in 2027.
With a market cap of $119 million, Fluence Corporation is a leader in wastewater treatment and reuse, high-strength wastewater treatment, wastewater-to-energy, and industrial and drinking water markets.
The company offers pre-engineered, standardised Smart Products Solutions and provides rapid delivery and commissioning of solutions for a range of needs from smaller communities to city-scale systems.
Beyond the Middle East, Fluence also focuses on high-growth markets including North America and Southeast Asia.
An uptick in the company’s share price since mid-July has ignited interest in the stock after a prolonged period of subdued performance.
Some analysts expect improving demand for modular water systems and decentralised technologies to support the company’s recovery outlook, aligning with rising global investment in sustainable infrastructure.
At the half-year FY25, the company posted revenue of $33.1 million, representing 64.7% growth over H1 FY24.
While the company is maintaining its FY25 guidance of $80-95 million of revenue and earnings of $3-5 million, management reminded the market that downside risks remain due to potential tariff-based project delays and continued weakness in the China market.
The share price is up 25% in one year and up 89% in the last month.
The stock is in a strong bullish trend, confirmed by multiple indicators.
Consensus is Hold.
This article does not constitute financial or product advice. You should consider independent advice before making financial decisions.
