Azzet reports on three stocks with price moving updates today.
AMP tanks on dismal FY25 numbers ~
Shares in AMP (ASX: AMP) were trading a whopping 30.3% lower by 1:55 pm AEDT (2:55 am GMT) after the grand old dame of Australian financial services announced a dismal FY25 result underpinned by an 11.3% drop in full-year net profit to $133 million, marred by class action costs and an increased spend on a business simplification program.
While profit largely met expectations, revenue disappointed across most divisions.
Platforms disappointed relative to forecasts, with FY25 core profit up 9% to $106 million, around 7% below consensus, while AMP Bank’s core profit fell 10% to $55 million with higher digital investment weighing on earnings despite improved margins and benign credit quality.
However, what the market appears to have reacted strongly to this morning was the underwhelming outlook for revenue margins, which is expected to see consensus downgrades to FY26 and beyond.
Management set maiden margin targets, which suggest modest pressure, including:
- Platform margins of 40-41 basis points.
- Super and investment margins of 60-61 basis points.
- Bank net interest margin of 1.25-1.30%, alongside a controllable cost target of $630 million to $640 million.
Given the lack of capital return and slightly weaker margin guidance, analysts didn’t believe the result would sustain the share price.
Other key FY25 numbers announced today:
- Underlying NPAT rose 20.8% to $285 million (FY24: $236 million)
- Total AUM up 9% to $161.7 billion (FY24: $148.4 billion)
- Final FY25 dividend of 2.0 cents per share, 20% franked; total FY25 dividend of 4.0 cents per share
- Controllable costs reduced by 6.9% to $603 million, exceeding targets
- Underlying EPS rose 25.6% to 11.3 cents per share
Commenting on today’s dismal update, AMP’s outgoing CEO Alexis George was quick to attribute blame to the two major class actions it settled in 2025 for a combined total of around $150 million, plus a spend on a business simplification process of $50 million which is expected to be completed in FY26.
“We have a clear strategic focus and a strong balance sheet. This means we are well positioned to continue to drive organic growth, while also having the capacity to participate in inorganic opportunities when they arise,” she said.
“We will consider these only where there is a compelling case to build our scale or accelerate development of our capabilities.”
Unsurprisingly, George tried to direct investor attention to the underlying net profit figure – after costs were stripped out – which was up 21% to $285 million.
The market appears to have ignored suggestions that the wealth management giant is well positioned to continue to drive organic growth.
George’s reminder that the group has the capacity to participate in inorganic opportunities - like takeovers when they arise - follows rumours that it is circling KKR’s and CBA’s Colonial First State, which is understood to be prepping for a sale later this year.
Current CFO Blair Vernon will step into the CEO role at the end of March 2026 when George retires.
AMP has a market cap of $3.4 billion; the share price is down 225 in one year and down 18% in the last week.
While AMP's 200-day moving average is trending higher, there is significant evidence that the bullish trend is near an end.
Recent price action has shown a lack of strength as the 5-day moving average has fallen below the 50-day moving average and the 20-day moving average is trending lower.
Consensus is Moderate Buy.
Peel Mining jumps on landmark merger deal
Shares in Peel Mining (ASX: PEX) were up around 12.5% after the base and precious metals small cap told the market that mid-tier copper and gold producer, Aeris Resources (ASX: AIS), will acquire its South Cobar copper project in a $214 million landmark deal.
Today’s update coincides with Peel’s plan to spin out its remaining Cobar Basin assets into a new ASX-listed explorer, NewCo, which will be distributed to Peel shareholders.
Under the terms of the agreement, Peel shareholders will receive consideration totalling $0.234 per share, comprising 0.3363 Aeris shares for each Peel share, valued at $0.19 per share, and, indicatively, one NewCo share for every 4.6 Peel shares, valued at $0.044 per Peel share.
Following the completion of the transaction, Peel shareholders will, in addition to holding 100% of NewCo, own around 20.5% of Aeris.
The deal represents a 49.1% premium to Peel’s one-month VWAP and a 174.8% premium to its September 2025 equity raising price.
Commenting on today’s update, Peel CEO Nick Woolrych told the market that combining Aeris and Peel will fast-track South Cobar’s development while creating a larger, more liquid copper and gold producer.
“Peel shareholders will receive immediate value at an attractive premium and will hold approximately 20.5 per cent of the combined group, allowing them to benefit from the market re-rate that is expected to flow from the creation of a larger base and precious metals producer with increased mine life and an enhanced production profile.”
Assuming Peel shareholders give the proposed merger the thumbs up mid-June, the scheme is expected to be implemented in early July, with NewCo’s proposed ASX listing anticipated in the third quarter of 2026.
NewCo is expected to focus on unlocking the value of the Southern Nights Complex and the broader Cobar Basin portfolio.
Perth Capital Pty Ltd and its associates, holding approximately 16.1% of Peel, have also indicated their intention to vote in favour of the Scheme.
The South Cobar Copper Project includes the Mallee Bull and Wirlong deposits.
The market was not so convinced about the upside for Aeris Resources, with the share price trading 8% lower this afternoon.
At the end of the December 2025 quarter, Peel held a cash balance of $17.6 million.
Material cash flow movements during the quarter included:
- $1.25 million in operating activities, including employee and administration costs.
- $0.97 million in investing activities, including drilling and assaying costs at the Nombinnie prospect.
- $20.2 million in equity proceeds associated with the settlement of announced capital raising, including two tranche placement and SPP.
- $1.82 million in capital raising costs and loan repayments.
Peel Mining has a market cap of $159 million; the share price is up 68% in one year and up 12% on the last week.
The stock is in a long-term bullish pattern confirmed by multiple indicators.
Consensus is Strong Buy.
Origin Energy jumps on earnings upgrade
Shares in Origin Energy (ASX: ORG) were trading 4.7% higher this afternoon after the energy business delivered a mixed result that the market clearly found favour with.
Investors appear to have overlooked a halving of 1H FY26 net profit in the gas business, in favour of upgrades to core earnings for the energy markets business for the full year to $1.55 billion to $1.75 billion from $1.4 billion to $1.7 billion.
While net profit fell to $557 million for the six months to December 31, down from $1.012 billion a year earlier, profit before one-time items - the figure most closely watched by the market - dropped 36% to $593 million and sales slid 9% to $7.99 billion.
Origin declared a first-half dividend of 30¢ per share, in line with expectations.
Commenting on today’s update, CEO Frank Calabria told the market that retail performance continued to strengthen, grid-scale batteries added further portfolio flexibility, gas production was steady, while cost management remained disciplined as commodity prices softened.
“It was a landmark half for Octopus and Kraken, taking a further step towards separation and continued customer growth, while the lower earnings contribution reflected ongoing investment in international growth and products and services,” said Calabria.
“The strength and diversity of Origin’s assets position us well for the energy transition, delivering robust cash flows and returns domestically, while benefiting from global exposure via Kraken Technologies and Octopus Energy as they enter their next phases of growth as standalone businesses.”
Calabria also reminded the market that Origin has delivered more than 10 consecutive halves of customer growth, further building on its leading retail position.
Looking forward, management reassured the market that it's on track to deliver the mid-point of the targeted $100 –$150 million savings by FY26, compared to FY24.
Australia Pacific LNG production was updated in the December 2025 Quarterly Report and is expected to be 645 – 680 PJ (APLNG 100%).
Management also reaffirmed Origin’s expected share of Octopus Energy Underlying EBITDA to be $0 – $150million, an overall improvement compared to FY25 despite higher costs incurred in the first half.
Total Origin capital expenditure is expected to be $900 – $1,100 million, compared to previous guidance of $800 – $1,100 million, primarily reflecting the extension of Eraring battery 2.
Origin Energy has a market cap of $19.8 billion; the share price is up 12% in one year and up 3.8% in the last week.
The stock’s shares are in a downtrend confirmed by multiple indicators.
Consensus is Hold.
This article does not constitute financial or product advice. You should consider independent advice before making financial decisions.
