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US quarterly earnings season: Resilience amid tariffs
The Q1 2025 earnings season has so far exceeded expectations according to FactSet data with 98% of S&P 500 firms having reported and 78% beating consensus EPS forecasts by an average of 8.5%, lifting blended EPS growth to 13.3% - nearly double the pace expected at the quarter’s outset and marking a second straight quarter of double‑digit gains. Contributions to this upside came from Communication Services, Health Care and Financials, while Information Technology continued to benefit from robust cloud and artificial intelligence (AI) spending. As earnings season draws to a close, retail giants were among the last to report, though some delayed releases amid tariff uncertainty that has led many firms to withdraw or scale back guidance.Credit: JJBers / flickrBroad‑Based Earnings StrengthBy mid‑May, approximately 98% of S&P 500 constituents had reported Q1 results, with 78% delivering EPS above analysts’ estimates, surpassing the 10‑year average of 75% and edging past the 5‑year norm of 77%. On aggregate, these companies have beaten forecasts by 8.5%, outpacing the 10‑year average beat of 6.9% and narrowly trailing the 5‑year average of 8.8%. This has driven the blended EPS growth rate - a composite of actual and estimated re
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Dial down US exposure as volatility reigns: 5AM Capital
With volatility likely to remain heightened within global equity markets throughout United States President Donald Trump’s remaining 1,566 days in office, Sam Chipkin Founder and CIO of 5AM Capital warns investors that history is less likely than ever to provide meaningful insights into future performance. One way to protect against earnings pressure headwinds confronting companies in the wake of Trump’s tariffs, adds Chipkin is to focus on stocks less exposed to cyclical downturns. “Trump volatility isn’t over and we should expect a range of headlines and decisions that perpetuate a risk-off position by institutional and retail investors alike,” says the Bondi-based fund manager. Chipkin doesn’t expect normal headline volatility until U.S.-China trade rhetoric dials down.Less US market exposureWhile Chipkin doesn’t expect Trump’s tariff mayhem and broader governmental interference to result in a huge market wipeout, he does urge investors to be less exposed to overheated U.S. markets. With the S&P 500 trading at a price to earnings (P/E) ratio of 33 times, 80% above its long-term median, Chipkin worries that the market is still priced for perfection heading into more volatile trading conditions. In light of these v
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Deep Dive: Trump's portfolio and second-term conflicts
United States President Donald Trump has amassed a vast business empire spanning real estate, technology, media, and cryptocurrency, with Forbes putting his real-time net worth at US$4.9 billion as of the 16th of March 2025. During his first term in 2017, Trump declined to divest his global businesses, leading to over 3,400 conflicts of interest by 2020, according to the Centre for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington. As he enters his second term, policy experts and watchdog organisations warn that his conflicts of interest could become even more extensive and problematic.Credit: The White House, Public domain, via Wikimedia CommonsTrump’s Business PortfolioTrump maintains a vast portfolio, including publicly traded companies and private holdings. Despite efforts to separate his business from his presidency - such as placing assets in a trust managed by his children - concerns persist regarding whether such measures effectively prevent financial influence on policy decisions. Many of the overseas contracts negotiated by the Trump family since Trump left office are branding deals, in which they license the Trump name to international developers who build residential and resort complexes, aiming to sell luxury units at
Stockbroking
Azzet’s insights into potential ASX takeover targets
Given the premium acquiring companies are willing to pay, investors may wish to give some thought to what unloved ASX-listed stocks look ripe to exit the Australian bourse later this year. The ASX has always been a fertile hunting ground for undervalued stocks, so much so that the ranks of listed bellwether blue-chip stocks are thinning fast, with stocks valued at as little as $1 billion now sitting well within the ASX300. Our bourse is shrinkingM&A activity is clearly having a material impact on both the ASX size (by value) and the availability of quality stocks for punters to invest in. Following on from its recent acquisitions of Crown in 2022 and more recently AirTrunk, the $1.7 trillion private capital giant Blackstone is said to have a number of companies in its sights for takeover later this year. But Blackstone is just one of many institutional investors that see bleeding value in key ASX stocks, and it’s not always large caps that are on its radar. Earlier last week we witnessed the Montreal-based dollar store chain, Dollarama (TSX: DOL) acquire the largest discount retailer in Australia, The Reject Shop (ASX: TRS). When you look at the premium Dollarama was willing to cough up for The Reject Shop - 112%
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ASX is an outlier amid record global dividend growth
While February’s reporting season revealed a 6.4% fall in Australian dividends on an underlying basis, global dividends during 2024 rose by a corresponding amount. With local listed stocks cutting payouts amid economic pressures, should Australian investors look more to offshore markets to maintain stable income streams? According to the Janus Henderson Global Dividend Index, global dividends grew to a record US$1.75 trillion, up 6.6% on an underlying basis. However, headline growth of 5.2% reflected lower one-off special dividends and the stronger U.S. dollar. While 88% of companies globally raised dividends or held them steady in 2024 - a median increase of 6.7% - only 54% of ASX-listed stocks issued higher dividends during the last reporting season. Overall, three-quarters of Australian companies have maintained or grown their dividends.Shrinking ASX pool of large dividend payersIn response to weak profits, cost pressures, and sector-specific challenges, key companies in the mining and banking sectors - including Woodside (ASX: WDS), BHP (ASX: BHP), and ANZ Bank (ASX: ANZ) - took a razor to their payouts. Due to the progressive shrinking of the ASX in recent years, there’s even greater reliance on a smaller pool of

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ASIC adds ASX clearing and settlement reforms
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) will require the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) to publish a comparison of its clearing and settlement fees with international providers, with the goal of encouraging competitiveness. The ASX must ensure transparent and fair pricing for its clearing and settlement services, offer its services on non-discriminatory commercial terms, and allow third-party access to its technology systems, ASIC said. “This is about limiting ASX’s ability to misuse its monopoly power to deter new entrants,” said ASIC chair Joe Longo. “The new rules support the long-term confident and informed participation of investors in Australian financial markets by establishing clear obligations to promote competitive outcomes in the provision of clearing and settlement services.” These rules were introduced under the 2023 Competition in Clearing and Settlement reforms, which gave ASIC the ability to regulate the ASX’s cash equity clearing and settlement facilities. ASIC began investigating a December outage in the ASX’s CHESS settlement system earlier this month. A Batch Settlement planned for 20 December was postponed to the following Monday after CHESS reported an outage due to an
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ASX Ltd climbs on interim dividend, revenue lift
ASX Ltd (ASX: ASX) appears to have defied gravity this morning with shares in the bourse operator trading around 9% higher despite the interim profit failing to meet analyst expectations. While the market was expecting $249 million profit in 1H FY25 it came in at $243.5 million, still up 5.6%. However, what clearly made shareholders happy was an interim dividend of $1.112 per share, up 9.9%. Benefitting from growth in net interest income, underlying net profit after tax increased by 10%. The company attributed a 5.9% lift in operating revenue to $541.9 million in the half to growth from its markets, technology & data and the securities & payments divisions. While Total Listings revenue was stable at $104.9 million, the Markets, Technology & Data and Securities & Payments businesses were up 9.9%, 6.7% and 5.2% respectively. ASX CEO Helen Lofthouse used today’s interim update to reassure the market that the troubled five-year transformation plan to replace its aging CHESS technology is progressing. Recent incidents with CHESS resulted in major delays in Batch Settlements, with some brokers having to borrow to settle their clients’ accounts. In light of these mishaps, Lofthouse reassured the market that
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What to expect this reporting season: Expert insights
With the ASX200 up around record levels, having recently nudged 8,500 points after posting returns of around 12% last year, most brokers aren’t so convinced that earnings levels can repeat last year’s performance. Trading up around 18 times, the market appears to be overvalued against traditional price to earnings (PE levels) of between 15.8 and 17.4 times and in light of recent market dynamics investor confidence levels have been tested. In light of board challenges across several sectors, uncertainty about United States President Donald Trump’s policies, interest rates and liquidity issues the market expects FY25 earnings per share growth (EPSg) to decline by 2.3%. With that in mind, Azzet asked a fund manager and a sharemarket analyst to make sense of reporting season - also known as corporate confession season - what’s in store and any insights into what will define markets in 2025? Structural shifts in market behaviour At face value, Evan Lucas Melbourne-based independent share market analyst expects this reporting season to replicate those of years past, with most stocks continuing to beat at the revenue level and miss on the earnings front. However, while it may appear to be business-as-usual this repo
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Singapore party ups ante with rival Selfwealth bid
ASX minnow, Selfwealth (ASX: SWF) breathed some rare air this afternoon with the share trading services business up around 4% following revelations that a fourth suitor has thrown an additional bid into the ring to acquire the company. Last month Bell Financial Group (ASX: BFG) made a $0.25 per share offer for SelfWealth to add scale to the group’s online broking business, growth, and cost synergies. Bell’s offer follows a 23¢ bid made last November by AxiCorp Financial Services which followed an opportunistic 17.5¢ a share bid by Stake after the share price continued to bounce lower during 2023. Bell has been hell bent on growing its book after launching an unsuccessful bid to merge with E&P Financial (née Evans Dixon) last year. Meanwhile, Bell has told shareholders - who vote on the deal next month - that spending $57.7 million on Selfwealth would increase its active portfolios by 130,000 and add $11 billion to the existing $94 billion in its online broking business. Syfe bid follows blocking trade last Friday Fast forward four weeks and Singapore-based Svava Pte Ltd, which owns the Syfe platform in Singapore, Hong Kong and Australia has upped the ante by lobbing in a counter (all-cash scheme) bid at 28¢ per