The Albanese government is facing the prospect of a Budget blowout as almost $9 billion worth of savings earmarked for the National Disability Insurance Scheme are delayed or at risk.
The Budget, published in March, showed savings of $19 billion over the next four financial years, in relation to the NDIS, but nearly $9 billion of that is now looking unlikely.
The savings figures depend on two factors which seem further out of reach than they were in March: an overhaul of the way NDIS participant plans are set up and a funding deal between states and federal governments.
The predicted $8.8 billion in savings relied on participant budgets becoming standardised to make up $8.1 billion of that figure, and the remaining $700 million came from shifting children from the NDIS to state programs.
According to analysis from the AFR of the March Budget and the NDIS' annual financial sustainability report, spending on the scheme is currently on track to outpace defence spending for 2026 and 2027.
It is also likely to become the country's most expensive social program this decade.
The program is rapidly growing largely due to the number of child participants, most of whom have developmental conditions or are neurodivergent, with 13% of boys aged 5 to 7 now covered by the NDIS.
