United States stock futures were little changed on Monday night (Tuesday AEDT) after a strong start to the week amid a rebound in artificial intelligence shares and optimism over a potential end to the record U.S. government shutdown.
By 10:30 am AEDT (11:30 pm GMT), Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 futures were each trading within a narrow ±0.1% range.
Major indexes rallied earlier in the day as hopes grew that the historic government shutdown could soon be resolved.
The Senate is expected to begin voting Monday evening (Tuesday AEDT) on a compromise funding bill designed to reopen the government through January and reverse some of the recent mass furloughs of federal workers.
However, the agreement excludes Democrats’ demand to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies, instead setting a separate vote on the health tax credits in December.
ANZ analysts commented in a note to clients: "Once passed in the Senate, the bill will also need to pass in the House. House Speaker Johnson has asked members to begin returning to Washington, although there will be 36 hours of formal notice once the final vote takes place in the Senate.
"It’s likely that the end of the shutdown is at least several days away. The proposed bill includes stop-gap funding through to 30 January for most government agencies, aside from a select few that would be funded for the entire current fiscal year. Federal workers furloughed through the shutdown will receive back pay under the proposed bill, which would also prohibit federal layoffs through the stop-gap funding period to 30 January.
"The Republican Senate Majority Leader has also promised the Democrats a vote on extending health insurance subsidies in mid-December, the key sticking point of negotiations.
"The potential end to the shutdown would mitigate a significant source of uncertainty for the U.S. economy, though it is uncertain how quickly delayed government economic data releases will be able to be published.
"We think it is unlikely the BLS will produce an October CPI report, given no data collection took place over the month and there remains a risk that the November report (previously scheduled to be released just prior to the FOMC December decision) will be delayed.
"The September labour market report should be able to be released soon after the shutdown ends, given the data was collected prior to the shutdown, though it’s uncertain how quickly the October and November reports can be released, given no surveys were completed in October.
"We expect an updated economic calendar to be republished once the government reopens."
Investors during Monday’s session piled back into high-growth and AI-linked stocks that had dragged markets lower last week amid renewed concerns about the durability of the tech trade and broader U.S. economic momentum.
Nvidia gained 5.8%, Google parent Alphabet rose 4%, and Microsoft added 1.9% to end its eight-day losing streak, helping drive the rebound in the Nasdaq and restore confidence in the market’s leading sector.
With the focus now shifting to Washington, traders will be watching closely as the Senate vote unfolds and officials work to restore normal government operations, a key step for the release of delayed economic data and renewed policy clarity.
