Apple iPhone shipments are set to overtake Samsung shipments for the first time in 14 years, according to Counterpoint data.
The data found that iPhones will regain the number one position in 2025 and are poised to maintain it through to 2029.
Counterpoint told CNBC that Apple is expected to ship 243 million iPhone units this year, compared with Samsung's 235 million.
Apple is likely to end the year with a 19.4% market share of the global smartphone market, while Samsung will end up with an 18.7% market share.
This comes as iPhone shipments exceeded expectations in Q3 2025, posting a 9% year-over-year growth for the quarter.
This was driven by sales of the iPhone 17 during the first four weeks after launch, being 12% higher than those of the iPhone 16 series, excluding the iPhone 16e.
In China, the sales of the iPhone 17 were 18% higher than its predecessor in the same time period.
Counterpoint senior analyst Yang Wang said Apple’s bullish outlook would also be pushed along by the iPhone upgrade and replacement cycle.
“Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase,” Wang said.
“Furthermore, 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025.
“These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years.”
Apple also benefited from lower-than-expected tariff impacts globally and a truce in the U.S.-China trade and tech war.
Samsung phones are expected to see a 5% shipment growth in 2025, driven by a resilient supply chain that absorbed much of the tariff impact.
Overall, global smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 3.3% year-over-year in 2025.
