A dramatic shift in land use across the Scottish Highlands is triggering alarm bells in the agricultural sector, as more than 50,000 breeding ewes have vanished from 51 estates over the past decade.
According to a survey by NSA Scotland, landowners are increasingly abandoning traditional sheep farming in favour of carbon offsetting, commercial forestry, and rewilding projects. These are lucrative ventures that offer higher returns than upland grazing.
NSA Scotland chairman Peter Myles warned that while the pivot to green income streams may align with climate goals, it risks hollowing out rural Scotland's social and economic fabric.
Myles said: “The figures are a stark reminder that money talks, and the rent upland sheep farming businesses can pay is insignificant compared to carbon offsetting income and cash for biodiversity net gain. It is worth noting that one flock on Skye gave up because of sea eagle predation.”
“We cannot blame the estate for wanting to diversify income and future-proof itself, it is government policy nationally and internationally that we question.”
The consequences stretch far beyond lamb production.
Industry leaders say the exodus of flocks is eroding rural skills, threatening auction marts, abattoirs, and feed suppliers. It also undermines generational knowledge tied to shepherding and land stewardship.
In some areas, such as around Killin, sheep numbers have dropped by nearly 20,000, leaving shepherds jobless and local businesses struggling.
NSA policy manager Michael Priestley cautioned that unmanaged hill ground could become overgrown, increasing wildfire risk and harming biodiversity.
Meanwhile, Scotland’s national breeding flock has shrunk by 3.7% in the past year alone, now standing at 2.45 million — a steep decline from 3 million in 1900.
For global investors, the trend underscores the complex trade-offs between climate finance and rural resilience.
While carbon markets and biodiversity credits offer compelling returns, wholesale livestock removal raises questions about long-term land sustainability and community viability.
Scotland’s sheep sector offers a cautionary tale ahead of World Rural Development Day: without a balanced land-use policy and targeted support, the green transition could come at the cost of rural livelihoods and cultural heritage.
