The United States may have removed Venezuela’s long-time leader in a dramatic overnight raid, but ‘Big Oil’ is in no rush to follow to President Donald Trump into the troubled South American nation.
Despite Trump’s push for a US$100 billion energy revival, America’s largest oil companies delivered a blunt message at the White House: Venezuela’s vast oil reserves mean little without sweeping legal, financial and security reforms.
Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods stunned observers by saying the company is prepared to consider a return to Venezuela nearly two decades after its assets were nationalised.
However, that was where the enthusiasm stopped with Woods making it clear that in its current form the country was simply not investable.
Speaking during a hastily-arranged White House meeting days after Nicolás Maduro was ousted from power, Woods said Exxon would only move forward if Venezuela rewrote its rulebook.
Durable legal protections, reform of the hydrocarbons law and credible security guarantees would be required before capital flowed back in.
Exxon, ConocoPhillips and Chevron were once cornerstone partners of state oil company PDVSA (Petróleos de Venezuela SA), helping develop the Orinoco Belt, which is now Venezuela’s main oil region.
That relationship ended when the late President Hugo Chávez nationalised the industry between 2004 and 2007.
Exxon and Conoco exited and pursued arbitration claims that Venezuela still owes, collectively, more than US$13 billion.
“We’ve had our assets seized there twice,” Woods told Trump.
“To re-enter a third time would require some pretty significant changes.”
However, Exxon conceded it is willing to send a technical team to assess the state of the industry once security conditions allow.
The focus, Woods told the market, would be understanding what it would take to get production back online for the benefit of Venezuelans — not writing cheques upfront.
Chevron, by contrast, already has boots on the ground and is the only major U.S. oil company still operating in Venezuela through joint ventures with PDVSA.
Vice chairman Mark Nelson said Chevron could immediately double oil liftings from those ventures and increase production by around 50% within 18 to 24 months under its existing investment framework.
ConocoPhillips which struck a more cautious tone.
CEO Ryan Lance said any return would likely require a restructuring of PDVSA, alongside deep involvement from banks and export credit agencies to provide billions of dollars in financing to repair dilapidated infrastructure.
Lance reminded Trump that Conoco is one of Venezuela’s largest non-sovereign creditors after the 2007 expropriations.
Meanwhile, Trump urged oil executives to think big, predicting the industry would invest at least US$100 billion to rebuild Venezuela’s energy sector under U.S. security guarantees.
He suggested losses should be set aside in favour of a clean slate.
While the oil executives listened, they were not convinced.
Outside the meeting, administration officials signalled that smaller, faster-moving companies may lead the first wave of investment.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said independent drillers and “wildcatters” were eager to enter Venezuela, even as the majors remained wary.
Given the current state of affairs and their previous dealings with the South American country, analysts describe Big Oil’s cautious approach to Venezuela as purely rational.
Venezuela produces about one million barrels per day, less than 1% of global supply after years of disinvestment, mismanagement and sanctions.
Meaningfully lifting output would take years, not months, and sustained annual investment of billions of dollars.
Even optimistic forecasts suggest production growth would be gradual without long-term political stability and competitive fiscal terms.
Trump has promised lower energy prices and said the U.S. would tightly control how Venezuelan oil is sold, including holding revenues in US-controlled accounts.
But industry watchers note control cuts both ways: companies want certainty, not shifting political rules.
For now, Venezuela remains an opportunity defined more by risk than reward.
The oil is there and the interest is there. The money, however, is waiting on conditions that still do not exist.
As one energy analyst put it: “They’re being as supportive as they can — without committing actual dollars.”
