Airline profits are expected to increase slightly in 2025, according to a new forecast by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
IATA projects the airline industry’s net profits this year will be US$36 billion, up from the $32.4 billion seen in 2024. This is lower than its December forecast of $36.6 billion, however.
“The first half of 2025 has brought significant uncertainties to global markets. Nonetheless, by many measures including net profits, it will still be a better year for airlines than 2024, although slightly below our previous projections,” said IATA director general Willie Walsh.
“The biggest positive driver is the price of jet fuel which has fallen 13% compared with 2024 and 1% below previous estimates. Moreover, we anticipate airlines flying more people and more cargo in 2025 than they did in 2024, even if previous demand projections have been dented by trade tensions and falls in consumer confidence.”
While global GDP growth is likely to be lower this year than in 2024, airline profitability is set to be boosted by low oil prices, according to IATA.
Net profit margins are expected to reach 3.7%, up from both 2024’s 3.4% and the 3.6% projected in December.
IATA has forecast that total revenues will reach a record high of US$979 billion, rising 1.3% from the previous year, while traveller numbers will increase 4% to 4.99 billion. All regions except Latin America and Africa will likely see an increase in net profit, with North America leading despite a slowdown in travel to the United States.
Passenger revenues will also be up 1.6% to US$693 billion, IATA wrote. Cargo revenues will decline by 4.7% to $142 billion, however.
The organisation projected that the most significant risks to the industry’s profitability will include geopolitical conflicts and tariffs. United States tariffs could lower demand for air cargo and travel, it said.
