Property Market Trends – September 2025

The fast-tracked expansion of the federal government’s Home Guarantee Scheme, effective from October 1, is set to significantly increase the range of suburbs available to first home buyers, according to Cotality’s September Monthly Housing Chart Pack.

The scheme, which allows eligible first home buyers to avoid lenders mortgage insurance while purchasing a home with a 5% deposit, will now remove income and place limits, while also raising property price caps across most regions. Under the old price caps, around a third of the 4,848 house and unit markets analysed nationally had a median value below the respective limits.

Under the expanded limits, this portion jumps to 63.1%, including 51.6% of house markets and 93.7% of unit markets.

Cotality Economist Kaytlin Ezzy says the new settings will empower first home buyers with greater choice, while helping to level the playing fields for those without access to the bank of mum and dad. “Previously, to qualify for the scheme, first home buyers were largely restricted to more affordable housing options, including units and houses in outer mortgage belts and regional markets”. Ms Ezzy added that under the old caps, first home buyers in Perth had access to just two suburbs with a median house value under the $600,000 limit, Medina ($590,786) and Mandurah ($589,965). 

Choices in Brisbane and Adelaide were also largely limited to units, with only 36.9% and 41.3% of suburbs respectively falling under the old caps. “Since the caps were last revised in 2022, values across the mid-sized capitals have grown significantly, which has seen first home buyers reliant on the scheme to purchase a house, essentially priced out.” For example, across Sydney and the Illawarra and Newcastle and Lake Macquarie regions, the cap has increased by $600,000 to $1.5 million. In Southeast Queensland and Adelaide, the caps have both increased by $300,000 to $1 million and $900,000 respectively.

The expanded scheme provides a marked increase in options

• Nationally, just over half of house markets (51.6%) now fall under the new price caps, and 93.7% of unit markets.
• Adelaide saw the largest increase for houses, with 46.6% of suburbs (130) now qualifying, up from just 2.9% (8) previously.
• Brisbane saw the largest proportional increase for units, with 97.5% of suburbs (153) now qualifying, up from just 36.9% (58).

“While this is a demand-side policy that will undoubtedly put some upward pressure on values, it will help create a more equitable starting point and provide more options for those looking to get on the property ladder,” Ms Ezzy said.

Source: Property Market Trends – September 2025, Cotality